California's 33rd Congressional District election, 2024
All U.S. House districts, including the 33rd Congressional District of California, are holding elections in 2024. The general election is November 5, 2024. The primary was March 5, 2024. The filing deadline was December 8, 2023.
All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election in 2024. Republicans have a 220 to 211 majority with four vacancies.[1] As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Democratic candidate won 57.7%-42.3%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have defeated Donald Trump (R) 61.5%-36.2%.[2]
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 33
Incumbent Pete Aguilar and Tom Herman are running in the general election for U.S. House California District 33 on November 5, 2024.
Candidate | ||
Pete Aguilar (D) | ||
Tom Herman (R) |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 33
Incumbent Pete Aguilar and Tom Herman defeated Mark Porter and Ernest Richter in the primary for U.S. House California District 33 on March 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Pete Aguilar (D) | 57.1 | 45,065 | |
✔ | Tom Herman (R) | 42.8 | 33,815 | |
Mark Porter (R) (Write-in) | 0.1 | 104 | ||
Ernest Richter (R) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 3 |
Total votes: 78,987 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I was born in Ohio, but my family moved to California in the 60’s and I grew up there, attending Bishop Amat High School and Cal Poly Pomona where I got a bachelor degree in Zoology. I then got a masters degree in Museum Science from Texas Tech University and worked in museums in Pennsylvania and Kansas for 12 years. I went to Guatemala in 1989 and spent 15 years working among the people there as Administrator and later Director of Harvest the World Bible Institute, where I also became a certified marriage and family counselor. I later worked as a church administrator where we were able to increase church finances dramatically through good administration and teaching. I speak fluent Spanish and learned something about the Hispanic culture and their needs. I met my wife Elda in Guatemala and three of our four children were born there. Upon returning to the United States, I have worked principally as a church administrator, but I have also simultaneously worked as a Foster Parent, as a Realtor and as a real estate investor and property manager. Overall, the majority of my experience has been in financial management and balancing budgets, something that seems to be lacking in Washington these days."
Voting information
- See also: Voting in California
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
Survey responses from candidates in this race
Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
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|Tom Herman (R)
I believe every person has the right to pursue their dreams without the government putting roadblocks in their way. I will work to reduce the size of government by eliminating agencies and programs that are not supposed to be handled at the federal level but rather at the state or local level. We need to get government interference out of our lives. I’m tired of watching our economy, the family, our country and our children’s future be destroyed by bad government policies. Let’s return this nation to government OF the people, BY the people and FOR the people.
Many politicians have forgotten the true meaning of what it means to be a politician - one who works for the people. I have this very clear - I work for you, not you for a government that wants to implement their own agenda that many times harms us rather than helps us. Growing up I heard a term being applied to elected officials, and it has stuck with me over the years and defines how I would see myself if elected. That term? Public Servant.
Tom Herman (R)
We need to secure our borders. Open borders have allowed terrorists, drug cartels, human traffickers and other criminals into our country, putting us all at risk. We need term limits to help eliminate career politicians who are ruining this country. We need new leaders and fresh ideas in Congress rather than people catering to special interests.
I also believe in parents’ rights. Parents are the ones who should make decisions about their children and not some government official or school official.Tom Herman (R)
Tom Herman (R)
Tom Herman (R)
You can ask candidates in this race to fill out the survey by clicking their names below:
Campaign finance
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pete Aguilar | Democratic Party | $4,842,706 | $2,898,277 | $3,524,185 | As of June 30, 2024 |
Tom Herman | Republican Party | $4,868 | $2,796 | $2,072 | As of June 30, 2024 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[3]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[4][5][6]
Race ratings: California's 33rd Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
September 17, 2024 | September 10, 2024 | September 3, 2024 | August 27, 2024 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. |
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in California in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.
Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
California | U.S. House | All candidates | 40-60 | $1,740.00[7] | 12/8/2023 | Source |
District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below is the district map in place for this election. Click the map below to enlarge it.
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in California.
California U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||||
2024 | 52 | 52 | 7 | 241 | 52 | 42 | 80.8% | 45 | 100.0% | |||||
2022 | 52 | 52 | 5 | 272 | 52 | 52 | 100.0% | 47 | 100.0% | |||||
2020 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 262 | 53 | 47 | 88.7% | 32 | 65.3% | |||||
2018 | 53 | 53 | 2 | 244 | 53 | 41 | 77.4% | 39 | 76.5% | |||||
2016 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 202 | 53 | 40 | 75.5% | 36 | 73.5% | |||||
2014 | 53 | 53 | 6 | 209 | 53 | 38 | 71.7% | 32 | 68.1% |
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in California in 2024. Information below was calculated on 1/16/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Two-hundred forty-one candidates filed to run for California's 52 U.S. House districts in 2024, including 125 Democrats, 88 Republicans, and 28 independent or minor party candidates. That’s 4.63 candidates per district. In 2022, the first election after the number of congressional districts in California decreased from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census, 5.2 candidates filed per district. In 2020, when the state still had 53 Congressional districts, 4.94 candidates filed per district. In 2018, 4.6 candidates filed.
The 241 candidates who ran in California in 2024 were the fewest total number of candidates since 2016, when 202 candidates ran. Forty-five incumbents—34 Democrats and 11 Republicans—ran for re-election. That was fewer than in 2022, when 47 incumbents ran. Six districts were open, one more than in 2022, and the most since 2014, when six districts were also open.
Incumbents Barbara Lee (D-12th), Adam Schiff (D-30th), and Katie Porter (D-47th) ran for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Incumbent Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) didn't run for re-election. Incumbents Grace Napolitano (D-31st), Tony Cárdenas (D-29th), and Anna Eshoo (D-16th) retired from public office. One incumbent—Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-20th)—left Congress before the end of his term. A special election was held to fill his seat before the general election.
Fifteen candidates—12 Democrats, two Republicans, and one nonpartisan—ran in the open 30th district, the most candidates running for a seat in 2024.
Forty-two primaries were contested, the fewest since 2018, when 41 were contested. All 52 primaries were contested in 2022, and 47 were in 2020. In California, which uses a top-two primary system, a primary is contested if more than two candidates file to run.
Incumbents ran in 35 of the 42 contested primaries. That’s lower than 2022, when 47 incumbents ran in contested primaries, but higher than every other year since 2014. In 2020, 32 incumbents faced contested primaries. Thirty-nine incumbents did so in 2018, 36 in 2016, and 32 in 2014.
Democratic candidates ran in every district. Republican candidates ran in every district except one—the 37th. Two Democrats, including incumbent Sydney Kamlage-Dove, one nonpartisan candidate, and one Peace and Freedom Party member ran in that district.Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is D+12. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 12 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made California's 33rd the 119th most Democratic district nationally.[8]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
2020 presidential results in California's 33rd based on 2024 district lines | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |||
61.5% | 36.2% |
Inside Elections Baselines
- See also: Inside Elections
Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[9] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.
Inside Elections Baseline for 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Baseline | Republican Baseline | Difference | ||
58.9 | 40.8 | D+18.1 |
Presidential voting history
California presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 15 Democratic wins
- 15 Republican wins
- 1 other win
Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Winning Party | R | R | R | P[10] | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of California's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
Congressional Partisan Breakdown from California | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
Democratic | 2 | 40 | 42 |
Republican | 0 | 12 | 12 |
Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 2 | 52 | 54 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in California's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
State executive officials in California, May 2024 | |
---|---|
Office | Officeholder |
Governor | Gavin Newsom |
Lieutenant Governor | Eleni Kounalakis |
Secretary of State | Shirley Weber |
Attorney General | Rob Bonta |
State legislature
California State Senate
Party | As of February 2024 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 32 | |
Republican Party | 8 | |
Other | 0 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 40 |
California State Assembly
Party | As of February 2024 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 62 | |
Republican Party | 18 | |
Independent | 1 | |
Other | 0 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 80 |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until 2024.
California Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Assembly | D | D | D | S | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
District history
The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.
2022
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 33
Incumbent Pete Aguilar defeated John Mark Porter in the general election for U.S. House California District 33 on November 8, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Pete Aguilar (D) | 57.7 | 76,588 | |
John Mark Porter (R) | 42.3 | 56,119 |
Total votes: 132,707 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 33
Incumbent Pete Aguilar and John Mark Porter defeated Rex Gutierrez and Ernest Richter in the primary for U.S. House California District 33 on June 7, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Pete Aguilar (D) | 59.8 | 41,046 | |
✔ | John Mark Porter (R) | 17.6 | 12,096 | |
Rex Gutierrez (R) | 15.4 | 10,587 | ||
Ernest Richter (R) | 7.1 | 4,878 |
Total votes: 68,607 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
2020
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 33
Incumbent Ted Lieu defeated James P. Bradley in the general election for U.S. House California District 33 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Ted Lieu (D) | 67.6 | 257,094 | |
James P. Bradley (R) | 32.4 | 123,334 |
Total votes: 380,428 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 33
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 33 on March 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Ted Lieu (D) | 60.5 | 130,063 | |
✔ | James P. Bradley (R) | 17.4 | 37,531 | |
Liz Barris (D) | 7.1 | 15,180 | ||
Sarah Sun Liew (R) | 6.3 | 13,601 | ||
Kenneth Wright (Independent) | 4.5 | 9,673 | ||
Albert Maxwell Goldberg (D) | 4.2 | 9,032 |
Total votes: 215,080 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Brandon Fricke (Independent)
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 33
Incumbent Ted Lieu defeated Kenneth Wright in the general election for U.S. House California District 33 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Ted Lieu (D) | 70.0 | 219,091 | |
Kenneth Wright (R) | 30.0 | 93,769 |
Total votes: 312,860 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 33
Incumbent Ted Lieu and Kenneth Wright defeated Emory Rodgers in the primary for U.S. House California District 33 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Ted Lieu (D) | 61.7 | 100,581 | |
✔ | Kenneth Wright (R) | 30.1 | 48,985 | |
Emory Rodgers (D) | 8.2 | 13,435 |
Total votes: 163,001 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Alexis Edelstein (D)
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ 2,000 signatures can be provided in lieu of the filing fee
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
- ↑ Progressive Party
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