The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, with large human populations and terrestrial carbon sinks, have a high demand for and dependence on water resources. Despite the growing interest in vegetation responses to drought under climate change in this region, our understanding of changes in the relationship between vegetation growth and water availability (referred to as Rvw) remains limited. Here, we aim to explore the Rvw and its drivers in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes between 1982 and 2015. We used the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the fine-resolution Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) as proxies for vegetation growth and water availability, respectively. The trend analysis results showed that changes in NDVI and PDSI were asynchronous over the past three decades. Moreover, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of the correlation coefficient between NDVI and PDSI. The results indicated that the Rvw was getting closer in more areas over the period, but there were differences across ecosystems. Specifically, most croplands and grasslands were primarily constrained by water deficit, which was getting stronger; however, most forests were primarily constrained by water surplus, which was getting weaker. Furthermore, our random forest regression models indicated that the dominant driver of changes in the NDVI-PDSI correlation was atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in more than 45% of grid cells. In addition, the partial correlation analysis results demonstrated that elevated CO₂ concentrations not only boosted vegetation growth through the fertilizer effect but also indirectly enhanced water availability by improving water use efficiency. Overall, this study highlights the important role of atmospheric CO₂ in mediating the Rvw under climate change, implying a potential link between vegetation greening and drought risk.

While controls over the Earth's climate system have undergone rigorous hypothesis-testing since the 1800s, questions over the scientific consensus of the role of human activities in modern climate change continue to arise in public settings. We update previous efforts to quantify the scientific consensus on climate change by searching the recent literature for papers sceptical of anthropogenic-caused global warming. From a dataset of 88125 climate-related papers published since 2012, when this question was last addressed comprehensively, we examine a randomized subset of 3000 such publications. We also use a second sample-weighted approach that was specifically biased with keywords to help identify any sceptical peer-reviewed papers in the whole dataset. We identify four sceptical papers out of the sub-set of 3000, as evidenced by abstracts that were rated as implicitly or explicitly sceptical of human-caused global warming. In our sample utilizing pre-identified sceptical keywords we found 28 papers that were implicitly or explicitly sceptical. We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature.

Rapid warming in the Arctic threatens to destabilize mercury (Hg) deposits contained within soils in permafrost regions. Yet current estimates of the amount of Hg in permafrost vary by ∼4 times. Moreover, how Hg will be released to the environment as permafrost thaws remains poorly known, despite threats to water quality, human health, and the environment. Here we present new measurements of total mercury (THg) contents in discontinuous permafrost in the Yukon River Basin in Alaska. We collected riverbank and floodplain sediments from exposed banks and bars near the villages of Huslia and Beaver. Median THg contents were 49⁺¹³/₋₂₁ ng THg g sediment⁻¹ and 39⁺¹⁶/₋₁₈ ng THg g sediment⁻¹ for Huslia and Beaver, respectively (uncertainties as 15th and 85th percentiles). Corresponding THg:organic carbon ratios were 5.4^+2.0/_−2.4 Gg THg Pg C⁻¹ and 4.2 ^+2.4/_−2.9 Gg THg Pg C⁻¹. To constrain floodplain THg stocks, we combined measured THg contents with floodplain stratigraphy. Trends of THg increasing with smaller sediment size and calculated stocks in the upper 1 m and 3 m are similar to those suggested for this region by prior pan-Arctic studies. We combined THg stocks and river migration rates derived from remote sensing to estimate particulate THg erosional and depositional fluxes as river channels migrate across the floodplain. Results show similar fluxes within uncertainty into the river from erosion at both sites (95⁺¹²/₋₄₇ kg THg yr⁻¹ and 26⁺¹⁵⁴/₋₁₃ kg THg yr⁻¹ at Huslia and Beaver, respectively), but different fluxes out of the river via deposition in aggrading bars (60⁺⁴⁰/₋₂₉ kg THg yr⁻¹ and 10^+5.3/_−1.7 kg THg yr⁻¹). Thus, a significant amount of THg is liberated from permafrost during bank erosion, while a variable but generally lesser portion is subsequently redeposited by migrating rivers.

Clouds produced by aircraft (known as contrails) contribute over half of the positive radiative forcing from aviation, but the size of this warming effect is highly uncertain. Their radiative effect is highly dependent on the microphysical properties and meteorological background state, varying strongly over the contrail lifecycle. In-situ observations have demonstrated an impact of aircraft and fuel type on contrail properties close to the aircraft, but there are few observational constraints at these longer timescales, despite these having a strong impact in high-resolution and global models. This work provides an observational quantification of these contrail controlling factors, matching air traffic data to satellite observations of contrails to isolate the role of the aircraft type in contrail properties and evolution. Investigating over 64 000 cases, a relationship between aircraft type and contrail formation is observed, with more efficient aircraft forming longer-lived satellite-detectable contrails more frequently, which could lead to a larger climate impact. This increase in contrail formation and lifetime is primarily driven by an increase in flight altitude. Business jets are also found to produce longer-lived satellite-detectable contrails despite their lower fuel flow, as they fly at higher altitudes. The increase in satellite-detected contrails behind more efficient aircraft suggests a trade-off between aircraft greenhouse gas emissions and the aviation climate impact through contrail production, due to differences in aircraft operation.

Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO₂-equivalent (tCO₂e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO₂e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO₂e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO₂e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.

The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

Worldwide demand for crops is increasing rapidly due to global population growth, increased biofuel production, and changing dietary preferences. Meeting these growing demands will be a substantial challenge that will tax the capability of our food system and prompt calls to dramatically boost global crop production. However, to increase food availability, we may also consider how the world's crops are allocated to different uses and whether it is possible to feed more people with current levels of crop production. Of particular interest are the uses of crops as animal feed and as biofuel feedstocks. Currently, 36% of the calories produced by the world's crops are being used for animal feed, and only 12% of those feed calories ultimately contribute to the human diet (as meat and other animal products). Additionally, human-edible calories used for biofuel production increased fourfold between the years 2000 and 2010, from 1% to 4%, representing a net reduction of available food globally. In this study, we re-examine agricultural productivity, going from using the standard definition of yield (in tonnes per hectare, or similar units) to using the number of people actually fed per hectare of cropland. We find that, given the current mix of crop uses, growing food exclusively for direct human consumption could, in principle, increase available food calories by as much as 70%, which could feed an additional 4 billion people (more than the projected 2–3 billion people arriving through population growth). Even small shifts in our allocation of crops to animal feed and biofuels could significantly increase global food availability, and could be an instrumental tool in meeting the challenges of ensuring global food security.

National reforestation initiatives with ambitious targets and multiple objectives are becoming the norm across the Global South. The extent to which these large-scale initiatives are actually achieving their multiple and potentially conflicting objectives, however, is largely unknown. Sembrando Vida, a national initiative in Mexico implemented in 2019, pays smallholder farmers to plant agroforests in order to reduce poverty and forest loss, and protect biodiversity. We assessed to what degree program recruitment met its stated objectives via its selection of participating municipalities and households. Because program data are not publicly available, we consolidated and harmonized >14 million policy payments (totaling ∼$4 billion USD) to smallholder farmers, thus creating the first spatiotemporal dataset of program outcomes. We found that ∼450k rural households in ∼1000 municipalities across the country participated in the program consistently from 2019 to 2022. The program was reasonably well targeted to achieve its poverty reduction objectives. Significantly more households (ANOVA, p < 0.001) were enrolled in high-poverty (10.4%) than low-poverty (4.9%) municipalities, despite more money being transferred in absolute terms to low-poverty municipalities. The program did not reach some regions that best fit its three goals. Using a zero-inflated negative binomial model, we showed that the distribution of participating households was more likely to address poverty (coefficient = 0.51, p < 0.001 at household level) and forest cover loss (0.1, p = 0.01) than to restore areas important for biodiversity (−0.08, p = 0.02). Finally, we conducted a spatial analysis showing that there is technically sufficient rural land (4.29 Mha) and households (491k) to maximize the potential of all policy objectives simultaneously, but this would require that the program operate in only 83 municipalities across 10 states. Our results highlight the challenges in reaching high poverty regions while meeting multiple other objectives when scaling up forest landscape restoration.

The eastern North Carolina Coastal Area Management Act region is one of the most hurricane-prone areas of the United States. Hurricanes incur substantial damage and economic losses because structures located near the coast tend to be high value as well as particularly exposed. To bolster disaster mitigation and community resilience, it is crucial to understand how hurricane hazards drive social and economic impacts. We integrate detailed hazard simulations, property data, and labor compensation estimates to comprehensively analyze hurricanes' economic impacts. This study investigates the spatial distribution of probabilistic hurricane hazards, and concomitant property losses and labor impacts, pinpointing particularly hard hit areas. Relationships between capital and labor losses, social vulnerability, and asset values reveal the latter as the primary determinant of overall economic consequences.

Wetlands, as a regulator of water cycle and balance, play a key role in preventing flood and drought disasters and protecting biodiversity. The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in our country. By predicting the distribution of wetland landscape and evaluating its evolutionary characteristics, strategies for wetland conservation and utilization in the Yellow River Basin can be formulated. Future land use simulation model can not only simulate the change of multiple land use types, but also reflect the uncertainty of real land use change. In this study, the model was improved and used to predict future wetland changes in the Yellow River Basin. Using the wetland distribution data in 2000 as the initial data, and the wetland distribution data in 2015 as the validation data, setting the parameters according to the land use data of the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2000 and the wetland type transfer matrix, after verifying the applicability of the model, the spatial distribution pattern of wetlands in the Yellow River Basin in 2030 was simulated. This research shows that the cost matrix setting method based on the wetland transfer matrix can effectively avoid the errors caused by subjective judgment assignment. By 2030, the wetland distribution in the Yellow River Basin will remain stable, with marshes, paddy fields, and beaches as the main types, similar to 2015. Of all the regions in the Yellow River Basin, Zhengzhou had the highest rate of wetland loss, down 31.94%. On the contrary, Sanmenxia had the highest growth rate of 24.44%.

In light of the urgent need to combat climate change and attain carbon neutrality, the development of blue carbon has emerged as a pivotal strategy for the global community. This approach offers significant potential for both mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change. As a result, international collaboration on blue carbon initiatives has become a focal point in the worldwide response to the climate crisis. China, blessed with extensive blue carbon resources, recognizes the development of these ecosystems as a critical component in its efforts to make a substantial contribution to the global endeavor to curb climate change and achieve sustainable environmental goals. This article offers a comprehensive analysis of China's opportunities and challenges in international blue carbon collaboration. Despite its vast potential, China faces significant hurdles, including the degradation of blue carbon ecosystems, a delayed start in implementing blue carbon practices, and inconsistencies in the blue carbon standard system. To enhance its participation in global blue carbon initiatives, China should pursue several key strategies, including preserving and restoring its blue carbon ecosystems, strengthening domestic protection and application mechanisms, promoting the construction of an international blue carbon system, establishing a scientific cooperation platform to facilitate capacity building and technology transfer and advocating for an international blue carbon market trading mechanism. By prioritizing these key areas, China can simultaneously foster domestic blue carbon conservation and development while solidifying its role as a pivotal contributor to global climate change mitigation efforts.

Due to their autotrophic nature, algae capture large quantities of CO₂ from the atmosphere and convert it to chemical energy in the form of biomolecules and cell mass for various applications. Such bio-based CO₂ capture plays an important role in global carbon neutrality, while making innovative and sustainable food and industrial products for human and animal use. This review broadly illustrates the total CO₂ emissions of the Southeast Asian region, named as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), while estimating CO₂ capture by regional commercial algae. Among all these nations, the top CO₂ emitter in the ASEAN region is Indonesia (625 Mt yr⁻¹) followed by Vietnam (311 Mt yr⁻¹), Thailand (289 Mt yr⁻¹), Malaysia (249 Mt yr⁻¹), the Philippines (154 Mt yr⁻¹), Singapore (52 Mt yr⁻¹), Myanmar (49 Mt yr⁻¹), Cambodia (16 Mt yr⁻¹), Laos and Brunei (7 Mt yr⁻¹). Indonesia is also ranked first in commercial algae production (9918 400 tons yr⁻¹), followed by the Philippines (1500 326 tons yr⁻¹) and Malaysia (188 110 tons yr⁻¹). Similarly, the highest estimated algal CO₂ capture is made by Indonesia (11 327 817 tons yr⁻¹) followed by the Philippines (1705 871 tons yr⁻¹) and Malaysia (214 279 tons yr⁻¹), with other ASEAN countries having negligible algal CO₂ capture due to either low algae production or a lack of data. The ASEAN region may play a pivotal role in the bio-capture of CO₂ with the help of the phytoplanktonic aquaculture industry for value-added products. The rapid emergence of the algal industry in the ASEAN region was due to increased global demand for carrageenophyte seaweeds (98.63% of global), such as Eucheuma sp., from Indonesia and Kappaphycus alvarezii from Malaysia and the Philippines. Due to its tropical climate, high aquatic biodiversity, sufficient water and nutrient resources, and long coastlines, the ASEAN regional governments took prompt action and implemented policies for increased seaweed industry in the region. Conclusively, it is desirable to further strengthen the algal industry in these regional countries for useful products and efficient CO₂ capture.

Due to their autotrophic nature, algae capture large quantities of CO₂ from the atmosphere and convert it to chemical energy in the form of biomolecules and cell mass for various applications. Such bio-based CO₂ capture plays an important role in global carbon neutrality, while making innovative and sustainable food and industrial products for human and animal use. This review broadly illustrates the total CO₂ emissions of the Southeast Asian region, named as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), while estimating CO₂ capture by regional commercial algae. Among all these nations, the top CO₂ emitter in the ASEAN region is Indonesia (625 Mt yr⁻¹) followed by Vietnam (311 Mt yr⁻¹), Thailand (289 Mt yr⁻¹), Malaysia (249 Mt yr⁻¹), the Philippines (154 Mt yr⁻¹), Singapore (52 Mt yr⁻¹), Myanmar (49 Mt yr⁻¹), Cambodia (16 Mt yr⁻¹), Laos and Brunei (7 Mt yr⁻¹). Indonesia is also ranked first in commercial algae production (9918 400 tons yr⁻¹), followed by the Philippines (1500 326 tons yr⁻¹) and Malaysia (188 110 tons yr⁻¹). Similarly, the highest estimated algal CO₂ capture is made by Indonesia (11 327 817 tons yr⁻¹) followed by the Philippines (1705 871 tons yr⁻¹) and Malaysia (214 279 tons yr⁻¹), with other ASEAN countries having negligible algal CO₂ capture due to either low algae production or a lack of data. The ASEAN region may play a pivotal role in the bio-capture of CO₂ with the help of the phytoplanktonic aquaculture industry for value-added products. The rapid emergence of the algal industry in the ASEAN region was due to increased global demand for carrageenophyte seaweeds (98.63% of global), such as Eucheuma sp., from Indonesia and Kappaphycus alvarezii from Malaysia and the Philippines. Due to its tropical climate, high aquatic biodiversity, sufficient water and nutrient resources, and long coastlines, the ASEAN regional governments took prompt action and implemented policies for increased seaweed industry in the region. Conclusively, it is desirable to further strengthen the algal industry in these regional countries for useful products and efficient CO₂ capture.

Rising global greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector pose a major challenge to meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement. This raises questions of how technology, infrastructure and societal trends and policies can influence transport demand and thus also emissions, energy demand and service levels. Here, we review the literature on factors relevant to shifting total transport activity and mode shares, categorised into exogenous drivers, socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological aspects. For each factor, we summarise current approaches to modelling and measuring the impact of each factor on transport systems, resulting in a proposed taxonomy to classify transport demand modelling approaches. We then comment on the suitability and sufficiency of existing modelling approaches for representing scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets in models of the entire global energy system. Factors that affect transport demand are currently insufficiently represented in integrated assessment modelling approaches and thus emission reduction pathways. Improving the comprehension and representation of diverse factors that affect transport demand in global energy systems models, by incorporating features of complementary models with high resolution representations of transport, holds promise for generating well informed policy recommendations. Accordingly, policies could influence the development of the factors themselves and their potential role in mitigating climate change.

Waste from the human food system includes a large quantity of nutrients that pose environmental and human health risks. If these nutrients can be captured and repurposed, they could potentially offset synthetic fertilizer demands. This study reviews several technologies—including anaerobic digestion, hydrothermal carbonization (HTC), and composting—that can be used to process wastes from the human food system. This study also assesses the quantity of nutrient resources that are available from wastes, including food waste, biosolids, manure, and yard waste. Three geographic scales were analyzed. At a national level in the United States, up to 27% of nitrogen and 33% of phosphorus demands for agriculture could be met with wastes from the human food system, primarily from food waste and biosolids. Some rural localities have a greater potential for circular economies of nutrients in the food system, with the potential to meet 100% of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer demands using waste nutrients, as in the case of Athens County, Ohio. Benefits of offsetting synthetic fertilizer use with waste nutrients include reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with up to 64% reduction in GHG emissions per unit of nitrogen fertilizer produced with HTC.

Modeling Arctic-Boreal vegetation is a challenging but important task, since this highly dynamic ecosystem is undergoing rapid and substantial environmental change. In this work, we synthesized information on 18 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) that can be used to project vegetation structure, composition, and function in North American Arctic-Boreal ecosystems. We reviewed the ecosystem properties and scaling assumptions these models make, reviewed their applications from the scholarly literature, and conducted a survey of expert opinion to determine which processes are important but lacking in DVMs. We then grouped the models into four categories (specific intention models, forest species models, cohort models, and carbon tracking models) using cluster analysis to highlight similarities among the models. Our application review identified 48 papers that addressed vegetation dynamics either directly (22) or indirectly (26). The expert survey results indicated a large desire for increased representation of active layer depth and permafrost in future model development. Ultimately, this paper serves as a summary of DVM development and application in Arctic-Boreal environments and can be used as a guide for potential model users, thereby prioritizing options for model development.

Radiative forcing (RF) resulting from changes in surface albedo is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of global climate change but has not been adequately estimated, including by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, compared with other warming agents. Here, we first present the physical foundation for modeling albedo-induced RF and the consequent global warming impact (GWI_Δα). We then highlight the shortcomings of available current databases and methodologies for calculating GWI_Δα at multiple temporal scales. There is a clear lack of comprehensive in situ measurements of albedo due to sparse geographic coverage of ground-based stations, whereas estimates from satellites suffer from biases due to the limited frequency of image collection, and estimates from earth system models (ESMs) suffer from very coarse spatial resolution land cover maps and associated albedo values in pre-determined lookup tables. Field measurements of albedo show large differences by ecosystem type and large diurnal and seasonal changes. As indicated from our findings in southwest Michigan, GWI_Δα is substantial, exceeding the RF_Δα values of IPCC reports. Inclusion of GWI_Δα to landowners and carbon credit markets for specific management practices are needed in future policies. We further identify four pressing research priorities: developing a comprehensive albedo database, pinpointing accurate reference sites within managed landscapes, refining algorithms for remote sensing of albedo by integrating geostationary and other orbital satellites, and integrating the GWI_Δα component into future ESMs.

In contexts where conventional environmental monitoring has historically been limited, citizen science (CS) for monitoring efforts can be an effective approach for decentralized data generation that also raises scientific literacy and environmental awareness. To that end, the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) is considering citizen science (CS) as a mechanism for producing ambient water quality data to track progress on Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicator 6.3.2: "proportion of bodies of water with good ambient water quality". However, the alignment of SDG 6.3.2 monitoring requirements with citizen science capacity and results in low- or middle-income countries has not been assessed. Through a systematic literature review of 49 journal publications, complemented by 15 key informant interviews, this article examines the methods and outputs of CS programs in resource-constrained settings. We explore the potential of these programs to contribute to tracking SDG 6.3.2. Using the Citizen Science Impact Assessment Framework (CSIAF), we evaluate broader outcomes of CS programs across 5 domains: society, economy, environment, governance, and science and technology. Despite large variability in scope, CS programs were consistently found to generate useful data for national-level reporting on physicochemical and ecological parameters; however, data quality is a concern for CS measurement of microbiological parameters. The focus in literature to-date is predominantly on scientific data production which falls only within the 'science and technology' outcome domain. Societal, governance, economic, and environmental outcomes are infrequently evaluated. Of the studies reviewed in this article, 75% identified some form of pollution but only 22% of them reported follow-up actions such as reporting to authorities. While CS has important potential, work is still needed towards the 'formalization' of CS, particularly if intended for more vulnerable contexts.

Contemporary evaluations of outcomes in human-managed systems have been constrained by a lack of counterfactual analysis. Community forestry (CF), a widely adopted strategy to achieve both conservation and management in coupled human-environment systems, is no exception, and counterfactual analysis would greatly enhance CF research. We used a mixed method approach incorporating quantification of deforestation and forest regrowth rates, synthetic control analysis, and focus groups discussions to evaluate mangrove CF outcomes in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar, from to 1990-2021. CF resulted in an overall increase in net forest gain and reduction in net forest loss across sites. More than two-thirds of CF sites had superior outcomes relative to synthetic controls for at least one outcome (deforestation or forest regrowth); however, CF tended to perform better for only one outcome while avoiding underperformance in the other. The annual rate of forest regrowth in CFs accelerated beginning three years prior to certification and peaked two years after certification, likely related to pre-certification engagement with the Forest Department or non-government organizations. Moreover, control sites near CFs experienced more rapid forest regrowth than controls further from CFs, suggesting spillover effects. The predominant challenge facing successful CF management was illegal extraction and overharvesting, and poor performing CFs experienced a complex array of challenges facing forest regrowth, likely related to the private nature of individual land claims within the CFs. Most supporting factors for CF were related to community management capacity, strongly indicating a need for extended close engagement with competent government and non-government actors to develop long-term management and governance capacities, which are sustainably funded. Our mixed-method approach can be replicated in other human-managed systems to evaluate the biophysical impacts of policies and gain insights into the underlying drivers of outcomes.

Weather extremes can drive substantial crop losses. Farm level management strategies play a critical role in mitigating the impacts of and consequences for farmer livelihoods and food security. While the impacts of extreme weather on crop yields are well documented in recent studies, these predominantly focused on expansive geographical scales and commonly overlooked the critical role of management practices in modulating the dynamics of weather-crop sensitivities. In our study, a unique data-set is used that explores the timely relationship between extreme weather and crop yields at farm level in the Netherlands. We cover 10 types of crops and elucidate the role of soil types, irrigation and nutrient application in modulating the relationship between extreme weather and crops. We show substantial impacts from drought during the growing- and harvesting period and excessive precipitation during the planting- and growing period. Severe droughts show significant (p≤0.05) reductions in yield for all crops, and lead to yield reductions up to 24 percent relative to average yields during the growing period. Meanwhile, eight crops show significant reductions in yield due to severe water excess during the planting period, with yield reductions up to 18 percent. Soils such as sand or loess amplify the negative impact of drought on crop yield, while softening the impact of excessive precipitation. Irrigation and to a lesser extent nutrient application are shown to moderately decrease the impact of extreme weather on crop yield. Our findings contribute valuable insights to guide local adaptation priorities which are critical given the projected increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather under climate change.

As urbanization exposes wildlife to new challenging conditions and environmental pressures, species that exhibit a high degree of behavioral plasticity are considered potentially capable of colonizing and adapting to urban environments. However, differences in the behavior of populations that inhabit urban and suburban landscapes pose unprecedented challenges to traditional methods in wildlife management which often fail to consider a species' needs or mitigate human-wildlife conflict due to changes in species behavior in response to intensive human interference. Here, we investigate differences in the home range, diel activity, movement, and diet of raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) between residential districts and forest park habitats in Shanghai, China. Using GPS tracking data from 22 individuals, we find that the home ranges of raccoon dogs in residential districts (10.4 ± 8.8 ha) was 91.26% smaller than those in forest parks (119.6 ± 135.4 ha). We also find that raccoon dogs in residential districts exhibited significantly lower nocturnal movement speeds (134.55 ± 50.68 m/h) compared to their forest park counterparts (263.22 ± 84.972 m/h). An analysis of 528 fecal samples showed a significantly higher intake of ingredients from human food in residential districts (χ2 = 4.691, P = 0.026), which indicates that urban raccoon dog foraging strategies differ from the forest park population due to the presence of discarded human food, cat food, and wet garbage in residential districts. Based on our findings, we propose a community-based wildlife management strategy and suggest modifying the current design of residential districts. Our results underscore the importance of mammal behavior studies in urban biodiversity management and provide a scientific basis for mitigating human-wildlife conflicts in urban environments in and beyond our study area.

In light of the rapid growth in cities, there is a pressing need to explore how urbanization affects extreme weather, especially short-duration convective storms that can potentially trigger urban floods. Here we use a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) convection-permitting model to simulate 23 summer convective storms over the subtropical city of Shanghai, China. We simulated these events in three different scenarios: present urban, no-urban, and urban-expansion settings. Results show contradictory findings of urbanization's influence on convective rainfall, which is associated with urban-surroundings hydrothermal differences and diurnal cycles. Urban expansion further intensifies daytime convective rainfall when inhomogeneous temperature and moisture conditions between the city and its surroundings are present, whereas other conditions may suppress rainfall intensity. The findings provide the potential mechanisms of rainfall modification by urban expansion in subtropical cities, offering useful insights for urban planning and flood management in Shanghai and other rapidly urbanizing cities.