How far will house prices fall?

Warnings of a house price crash have been floating around the property market this year, but we're yet to see it materialise. So, what does the future hold for house prices in the coming years?

A report from the Resolution Foundation think tank warns they could drop by as much as 25% over the next five years as a knock-on effect of high mortgage rates.

Other forecasters, however, believe prices won't dramatically fall and will begin to go back on the rise in the not-too-distant future.

Here, we unpack what's happening to property prices and look ahead to what may happen.

What were the house predictions for 2023?

Back at the start of the year, forecasts for the year ahead varied. But experts were all in agreement that prices would fall - yet with varying opinions on the degree of the decreases.

• Find out more: how much is your house worth?

What's actually happened to house prices?

Despite the forecasts, recent house price index figures suggest prices have remained resilient. 

The Land Registry's UK House Price Index says the average price in May was £285,861, whereas in December last year, it was £291,361. That equates to a 1.9% fall over a six-month period.

Nationwide's latest data, which is based on lending, shows house prices dropped 3.5% in the year to June, the largest fall since 2009. But when looking at data comparing December 2022 with June 2023, there was a 0.07% price increase in the first half of this year.

Meanwhile, Halifax data, which is also based on mortgage lending, shows an average house price of £281,272 in December 2022, compared with £285,932 for June 2023 - an increase of 1.6%.

The figures suggest prices are remaining stubborn and not falling away at the rate some predicted earlier this year. However, it's expected there could be slips in prices in the second half of this year.

• Find out more: what's happening to house prices?

Where have house prices increased the most?

The latest data from the Land Registry shows that average house price growth in England was 1.7% between May 2022 and May 2023. But some areas have witnessed much greater price jumps.

Out of 316 local authorities, 284 have recorded an annual price increase. The table below shows the top 10 places for price rises.

Where have house prices fallen the most?

One in 10 (9.8%) local authorities in England have seen house prices drop over the past year, with Kensington & Chelsea topping the list (-13.4%).

Away from the higher-end of pricing, North Warwickshire (-4.7%) and Great Yarmouth (-4.2%) have recorded the biggest annual house price falls.

What will happen to house prices over the rest of the year?

The current mortgage crisis gripping borrowers is expected to have a knock-on impact on house prices.

Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said: 'House prices increased slightly over the last three months to June but higher mortgage rates and weaker demand mean we expect a return of modest price falls in the second half of 2023.

'Overall we expect prices to be 5% lower by the end of the year, still 15% higher than pre-pandemic levels.'

Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter, echoed that prediction, stating: 'The huge squeeze on affordability is now taking a real toll and downward pressure on house prices in the coming months is inevitable.'

Average two-year fixed mortgage rates now stand at 6.81% and five-year terms are at 6.33%. Both are almost double where they were 12 months ago.

As a result, prospective first-time buyers are expected to 'wait it out' until rates drop again - causing demand to wane. While homeowners struggling to afford their mortgage bill may be inclined to sell up. 

Both instances would likely have a downward impact on house prices, however, increased mortgage support systems - such as reverting to interest-only for six months - are hoped to prevent owners having to sell up.

• Find out more: all you need to know about the new mortgage charter

Bigger price falls in Southern England

Zoopla says there is a clear split between trends in southern England and the rest of the country. 

Higher mortgage rates have a greater impact on buying power where house prices are highest. Areas with average prices over £300,000 are expected to have the biggest decreases in the second half of the year.

• Find out more: the best mortgage rates for homemovers and first-time buyers

What will happen to house prices beyond 2023?

There are mixed predictions for the future of house prices. Estate agency Savills forecasts prices will pick up again next year, and will grow by 6.2% over the next five years.

The Office for Budget Responsibility believes prices will drop again next year before ending up 3.5% higher come 2027.

In contrast, the Resolution Foundation think tank says persistently high interest rates could make a significant dent in house prices, warning that we could see a 25% drop over the next five years.

How to find the best place to live

If you're tempted to up sticks this year, it's important to remember that the right place to live isn't just about the property or its price.

It's important to thoroughly research an area before taking the leap. Think about your priorities - if you like dining out, are there good restaurants nearby? If you prefer exercising regularly, are the open spaces and gyms any good?

You might also want to consider things like transport connections, pollution levels, services such as banks and GP surgeries, and of course whether the local schools are well-regarded.

Our guide on finding the best place to live contains lots of great tips on how to settle on the best area to buy a home.

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