Consumers in Scotland - a food briefing
Introduction
Food inflation has risen at its fastest rate in 45 years, reaching 19.2% in March 2023.
Which?’s research has shown that these historically high price rises in the food sector are having a major impact on consumers across the UK, forcing them to cut back, seek special offers and even skip meals [1]. Our research shows that as a result, it is becoming more difficult for people to eat healthily, particularly those who are facing most financial difficulty. 46% of all consumers in Scotland say they are finding eating healthily more difficult due to the cost of living crisis, but nine in ten (90%) of those who say they are struggling the most financially say they are finding it harder to eat healthily now.
There is an important role for the Scottish and UK Governments in supporting people through this crisis. There have been some positive steps taken in Scotland that will help support struggling families such as uprating the value of the Best Start Foods scheme [2] and expansion of free school meals to cover Primary 6 and Primary 7 pupils [3]. But consumers in Scotland are facing unprecedented challenges and there is a lot more that the government - as well as the food sector can do to support consumers. Which?’s Affordable Food For All campaign focuses on the important role that supermarkets can play in supporting people to access affordable food and ensure that they are able to choose the best value products through this crisis.
In this briefing, we share the latest data on how these sustained high levels of food inflation are impacting consumer behaviour in Scotland, drawing on a previously unpublished, nationally representative survey of consumers in Scotland conducted in December 2022, as well as our Cost of Living research panel [4]. We explore how consumers in Scotland have been affected by rising food prices, how this impact differs for more vulnerable groups, and what changes consumers in Scotland would like supermarkets to make to help out during this crisis. We also highlight which neighbourhoods in Scotland are most likely to find it difficult to access affordable food, and thus where interventions will be most valuable, using our Priority Places for Food Index [5] - a tool developed by Which? and the Consumer Data Research Centre at the University of Leeds to help identify places in the UK where people are most likely to need support to access affordable food.
Our key findings
- Worry about food prices is rising for all consumers in Scotland; however, working-age parents are the most worried, with over 9 in 10 stating they are worried about food prices.
- Over 80% of consumers in Scotland are taking some form of action to save money on food.
- Consumers in Scotland would most like supermarkets to support them through this time of high food inflation by having more promotions on healthy products, more budget-range foods available, and more loyalty card discounts on the products they usually buy.
- Priority places (i.e., the 20% of neighbourhoods that are most in need of support, identified by our Priority Places for Food Index) are concentrated in West Central Scotland and Glasgow. These neighbourhoods are most at risk of food insecurity, and where interventions to help people access affordable food will be most valuable.
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The vast majority of consumers in Scotland are worried about food prices
Food inflation has continued to rise over the past year reaching its fastest rate in 45 years, 19.2%, in March 2023 [6].
Supermarket prices have been rising most for essential products such as cheese and milk, with Which?’s food inflation tracker finding these products rose on average by 25.3% and 24.2% respectively in the 12 months to March 2023 [7]. These sustained high levels of inflation are impacting living standards, with a larger impact on households with children and those in low-income households [8] who spend proportionally more on these essential goods.
Consumers in Scotland have become increasingly concerned about food prices, with the latest data showing 87% are worried about food prices, up 10 percentage points from the same time in 2021. The worry about food prices is greatest among working-age parents surveyed in Scotland as shown in Figure 1, with over nine in ten (93%), worried. This is higher than among working-age parents in England and Wales where respectively, 88% and 90% are worried but lower than the level of worry among working-age parents in Northern Ireland (95%).
Figure 1: Over nine in ten working-age parents surveyed in Scotland are worried about food prices
Source: Yonder, on behalf of Which? surveyed at least 1,000 consumers in Scotland in November-December each year - data are weighted to be nationally representative of the adult population of Scotland. Figures for sample subgroups (eg Working age no kids, Pensioners) are unweighted. Base sizes for household types are as follows: working age with children (262), working age without children (525), pensioners (242).
The level of worry is higher among low income consumers [9] surveyed in Scotland with over nine in ten worried (91%) compared with 86% of higher income consumers in Scotland. The level of worry for low income consumers in England is lower, where 86% are worried about food prices in the latest data.
Members of our Cost of Living research panel living in Scotland have been feeling the emotional burden of these continued high food prices.
“This has caused me a lot of worry and stress recently, especially seeing a lot of regular food items increase from £1 to £1.25.”
“Our weekly food shop has increased more than planned and it’s feeling overwhelming at times!”
How are consumers in Scotland responding to rising food prices?
The vast majority of consumers in Scotland are responding to their worry about food prices by actively trying to reduce their food bill.
Eight in ten (82%) consumers are taking at least one action to reduce their food bill.
Figure 2: Eight in ten consumers in Scotland are taking at least one action to reduce their food bills
Source: Yonder, on behalf of Which?, surveyed 1,034 consumers in Scotland from 25th November-6th December 2022 - data are weighted to be nationally representative of the adult population of Scotland by age and gender (effective base 1,014).
The majority (60%) of consumers in Scotland are buying cheaper products and nearly half (48%) are shopping around in cheaper supermarkets or online. These actions reduce the cost of food bills without necessarily reducing consumption, but might reduce the healthiness of the food consumed.
Our survey suggests this is the case, with 46% of consumers in Scotland saying they are finding eating healthily more difficult due to the cost of living crisis, rising to nine in ten(90%) of those who say they are struggling the most financially say they are finding it harder to eat healthily now.
A member of our Cost of Living panel living in Scotland told us they are cutting back on food to reduce the cost of their food bill.
“I have definitely found I’m having smaller … portions. I’m really going down to like just having a really small bowl of cereal in the morning or sometimes skipping breakfast.”
And they are not alone in taking drastic steps to reduce the cost of their food bill, 11% of consumers in Scotland reported going without or skipping meals and 7.7% prioritising meals for other family members. Even more worrying, over one in five (22%) of working-age parents in Scotland are prioritising meals for other family members.
What neighbourhoods in Scotland are most in need?
There are many reasons why people may find it difficult to access affordable food.
Some relate to individuals' circumstances, like lower incomes. Other reasons relate to the place that someone lives, such as the level of retail provision or the quality of public transport. In the case of accessing affordable food online, barriers may be both place-based (limited or no online deliveries) or related to the individual (limited capability to shop online).
Our Priority Places for Food Index [10], developed in partnership with the Consumer Data Research Centre at the University of Leeds, draws together data that captures all of these elements to identify priority places where interventions to help people access affordable food will be most valuable. This composite index combines data from seven different factors. Three factors focus on the likely need of individuals in a neighbourhood for affordable food and their ability to access it. These factors cover socio-economic barriers (income deprivation and car access), the likely need for family food support (for example eligibility for free school meals) and measures of fuel poverty. The final four factors relate to the level of opportunity to access food retailers in different neighbourhoods. These factors are the proximity of supermarket retail facilities, the accessibility of supermarket retail facilities, access to online deliveries and proximity to non-supermarket food provision. Further detail on the Priority Places for Food Index and the factors are provided in the annex.
Table 1: Priority Places in Electoral Regions
| Region | Total number of neighbourhoods | Proportion that are priority places | Why are neighbourhoods in this region classed as priority places? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow | 852 | 36% | Overall, neighbourhoods in Glasgow tend to have higher socio-economic barriers and high levels of fuel poverty and higher need for family food support. They also have relatively poor access to online deliveries. |
| West Scotland | 935 | 34% | Neighbourhoods in West Scotland overall have around the national average levels across all factors. However, priority places in this region are characterised by more socio-demographic barriers and higher levels of fuel poverty. |
| Central Scotland | 887 | 26% | Overall, neighbourhoods in Central Scotland are around the national average or higher across all factors. Priority places in this region are characterised by higher levels of fuel poverty, poor access to online deliveries and relatively low proximity to supermarkets. |
| Mid Scotland and Fife | 873 | 20% | Neighbourhoods in Mid Scotland and Fife have relatively poor accessibility to supermarkets; however, the other factors are around the national average or higher. Priority place neighbourhoods in this region have particularly high need for family food support. |
| South Scotland | 899 | 20% | Neighbourhoods in this region have lower proximity to supermarkets and lower accessibility to supermarkets than the national average. Priority place neighbourhoods in South Scotland have particularly poor proximity to supermarkets and poor accessibility to supermarkets. |
| North East Sctoland | 986 | 11% | Overall, neighbourhoods in North East Scotland are around the national average or higher across all factors. Priority place neighbourhoods in this region have very high levels of fuel poverty. |
| Highlands and Islands | 601 | 11% | Neighbourhoods in the Highlands and Islands have relatively low need for family food support but high levels of fuel poverty. Proximity to supermarkets is below the national average; however, accessibility is relatively high. |
Note: Which? Analysis of the Priority Places for Food index. Data Zones 2011 are matched to Scottish Parliamentary constituencies and electoral regions using 2011 Data Zone Lookups from statistics.gov.scot.
Figure 3: Priority places are most commonly found in West Central Scotland and Glasgow
Note: Which? Analysis of the Priority Places for Food index. Data Zones 2011 are matched to Scottish Parliamentary constituencies and additional members regions using 2011 Data Zone Lookups from statistics.gov.scot. .
Priority places in Scottish Parliamentary Constituencies
To further explore how priority places are distributed around Scotland we have aggregated neighbourhoods up to the level of Scotland parliamentary constituency, as shown in Table 2. 74% of Scottish Parliamentary Constituencies have at least one priority place, and in ten constituencies at least half of the neighbourhoods are priority places. Those constituencies with the highest prevalence of priority places are concentrated in West Central Scotland and Glasgow.
Table 2: 10 Scottish parliamentary constituencies where over half of the neighbourhoods are a priority place
| Constituency Name | Neighbourhoods in constituency | Proportion of neighbourhoods that are priority places | Rank (out of 73 Scottish parliamentary constituencies) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cunninghame South | 92 | 71% | 1 |
| Cunninghame North | 94 | 69% | 2 |
| Glasgow Provan | 98 | 68% | 3 |
| Greenock and Inverclyde | 107 | 62% | 4 |
| Glasgow Pollok | 101 | 61% | 5 |
| Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley | 108 | 60% | 6 |
| Glasgow Anniesland | 92 | 57% | 7 |
Note: Which? Analysis of the Priority Places for Food index. Data Zones 2011 are matched to Scottish Parliamentary constituencies and electoral regions using 2011 Data Zone Lookups from statistics.gov.scot.
Dumbarton - The neighbourhoods in this constituency have relatively high levels of fuel poverty. Proximity and accessibility to supermarkets is relatively worse than the national average. Neighbourhoods classed as a priority place in this constituency also have particularly poor online delivery access.
Best Start Foods scheme
With so many people, especially families, skipping meals, the need for support is obvious.
One route is the Best Start Foods scheme which offers financial support with food spending to low-income families in Scotland. Currently, Best Start Foods provides money to pregnant women and families with children under 3 on qualifying benefits [11] to buy healthy foods, including milk, infant formula, pulses, and fruit and vegetables. Since it was uprated by 10.1% in April 2023 [12], it has been worth £39.60 every 4 weeks for children aged 0 to 1 and £19.80 for all other recipients. This is over 16% higher than recipients currently receive under the equivalent Healthy Start Scheme in England, Wales and Northern Ireland [13], however the Healthy Start scheme is available for one additional year for qualifying children aged between 3 and 4.
The Best Start Foods scheme replaced the Healthy Start Scheme [14] in Scotland in August 2019. As part of the new scheme, Scotland transitioned from paper vouchers to a card based scheme and was the first of the four nations to make this digital transition. The latest data from 2021/2022 estimates takeup of Best Start Foods scheme is 88%. This is significantly higher than current takeup [15] of the equivalent Healthy Start scheme in the other three nations, Wales 69%, England 65% and Northern Ireland 55%.
One factor that has been associated with Scotland’s success in encouraging takeup is the partnership working between Social Security Scotland and supermarkets. In 2022, Social Security Scotland partnered with Asda to host in-store events at seven supermarkets to boost awareness and engagement of the Best Start Foods scheme [16]. This has been impactful, the increase in takeup from 2020-21 to 2021-22 by 14 percentage points has been partially attributed to the partnership work between Social Security Scotland and supermarkets.
The demand for the Best Start Foods scheme, as shown by the distribution of applications in Figure 4, varies widely across local authorities in Scotland. While the Best Start Foods scheme performs better in several respects than Healthy Start, increasing the age limit for eligibility by two years would bridge the gap between the end of Best Start Foods eligibility and free school meals, helping to avoid children going hungry.
Figure 4: Over 16% of all applications to the Best Start Foods scheme were from the Glasgow City local authority
Notes: Best Start Food applications by local authority and ONS mid-year 2021 population estimates [17].
The role for supermarkets
With so many consumers in Scotland already actively reducing the cost of their food bill, there’s not much left that consumers can do themselves without further lowering their living standards.
Members of our Cost of Living research panel living in Scotland told us of the powerlessness they are feeling.
“We are powerless to stop the growing increases in everything and the government should do more to help.”
“I continue to feel powerless in the increasing cost of my food shop. We are all just expected to go with it and find the extra costs from somewhere.”
Consumers will look for support from a range of sources, including government, charities and local community groups. However, the fundamental role of the largest supermarkets in the UK’s grocery market means that these businesses have a key role to play in supporting communities.
We asked consumers to pick three options that would help them save the most money on food in supermarkets, from a range of possible actions that supermarkets already are or could be taking as shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5: Over third of consumers in Scotland would like more promotions on healthy products and ingredients
Source: Yonder, on behalf of Which?, surveyed 1,034 consumers in Scotland from 25th November-6th December 2022 - data are weighted to be nationally representative of the adult population of Scotland by age and gender (effective base 1,014).
The most popular choice was having more promotions on healthy productsand ingredients, which was chosen by 35% of consumers in Scotland. A third of consumers in Scotland also would also find having more budget range foods available at supermarkets would help them save money.
This will be particularly key in places with only small stores nearby, or where consumers are more likely to have limited mobility or access to transport to access larger stores, as we recently found that small stores are likely to have little to no stock of an essential basket of budget line items [18]. Looking across demographics, working-age parents in Scotland are more likely to say that higher availability of budget lines will help them (42%) than non-parents of working age (34%) or pensioners (20%).
Other popular choices included, ‘more loyalty card discounts’ and ‘personalised loyalty card discounts targeting the things I normally buy’ which were all chosen by at least 30% consumers in Scotland.
Actions supermarkets can take will be most beneficial if targeted at communities in places with the most need for them. For example, the importance of providing budget lines that support healthy eating, tailoring marketing budgets and promotions, promoting the Best Start Foods scheme will all vary from place to place and to be most effective retailers may want to focus their efforts on particular places using the Priority Places for Food Index. Our Index is able to show which supermarkets are located in which areas and what type of store they have. It also shows other food retailers. This tool therefore enables supermarkets to see where they can most usefully focus their efforts.
Conclusion
Sustained high food prices are causing widespread hardship for consumers in Scotland.
The vast majority are both concerned about food prices and taking actions to reduce their food bills. The most vulnerable (working-age parents and those on lower incomes) are the most worried about food prices and are significantly more likely to be engaging in potentially harmful behaviours such as skipping meals. It is therefore crucial that people are given the support they need to navigate the current crisis and access healthy, affordable food.
There are a wide range of actions that governments need to take to support households through this crisis. This includes ongoing support for energy bills and providing an effective nutritional ‘safety’ net for families who are most vulnerable. More generally there has to be a transition to a more sustainable and resilient food system. However, at this time of crisis, we believe that businesses also have a crucial role to play and that supermarkets in particular could do a lot more to support their customers. A range of essential budget lines that support a healthy diet need to be available in smaller, as well as larger stores and pricing should be made clearer and more transparent across the board, including by providing unit pricing on loyalty card offers. As highlighted in our research, people are also looking to supermarkets to more effectively target their promotions to help them choose healthier products. The Scottish Government also has an important role in ensuring progress in this area and an opportunity to improve the availability of affordable food for consumers as it develops its National Food Plan.
The Priority Places for Food Index has identified parts of Scotland where people are most likely to need support in accessing affordable food and can be used as a tool for government, retailers and others trying to support consumers through the cost of living crisis.
For the methodology outlined in Annex A, download our full report:
pdf (2.68 MB)
There is a file available for download. (pdf — 2.68 MB). This file is available for download at .
Footnotes
[1] Which? (2022) Affordable Food for All: how supermarkets can help in the cost of food crisis. Which? (2023) Financial wellbeing in February 2023 ↑
[2] Scottish Government (2023), Increase in social security benefits ↑
[3] Scottish Government (2022), Supporting families with cost of school ↑
[4] The Cost of Living Panel is a longitudinal panel made up of 30 households from across the UK. The panel started in October 2022 and will run until September 2023, and focuses on the impact of the cost of living crisis ↑
[5] Consumer Data Research Centre, Priority Places for Food Index ↑
[6] Office for National Statistics (2023), Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2023 ↑
[7] Which? (2023) What's happening to supermarket food prices? ↑
[8] Which? (2023) Inflation and Household Spending - January 2023 ↑
[9] Self reported as having a household income up to £21,000, sample base size is 242 ↑
[10] The index uses data for very low level geographies and refers to small areas of similar population size. It is constructed individually for each of the nations of the UK as not all of the same data is available for each nation, so direct comparisons cannot be made between places in different nations ↑
[11] Some of the qualifying benefits also have an income limit, however the income limit is to be lifted from February 2024 ↑
[12] Scottish Government (2023), Social Security (Scotland) Act (2018): Devolved Social Security Assistance, Uprating for Inflation - A report in fulfilment of section 86A: Duty to consider effects of inflation ↑
[13] The Healthy Start scheme is currently worth £34 every 4 weeks for children aged 0 to 1 and £17 for all other recipients ↑
[14] The Healthy Start scheme offers financial support with food spending to low-income families in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. It provides pregnant women or families with children under 4 on qualifying benefits or tax credits to receive money towards some healthy foods, including milk, infant formula and fruit and vegetables ↑
[15] The latest Healthy Start data is as-at May 2023. However takeup in the three nations was higher in March 2022 during the end of the transition to the digital scheme where both physical vouchers and the card were available ↑
[16] Scottish Government (2022), Take-Up Rates of Scottish Benefits: October 2022 ↑
[17] Office for National Statistics (2022), Estimates of the population for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland ↑
[18] Jooshandeh, J., Di Marcello, T. and Davies, S., Just the basics: Assessing the availability of supermarket budget ranges, Which?, April 2023 ↑
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