Indicators
Thanks a bullion, RBI will take it from here; overseas gold reserves at 6-yr low
The Reserve Bank of India's gold reserves parked overseas have dropped to a six-year low, with 47% of total at the end of March. The RBI started bringing gold to India in March 2022, coinciding with the Russia-Ukraine war. This follows a global trend of central banks becoming cautious after the US government froze Russian foreign currency assets.
India can grow at 8 pc if inflation keeps falling: Ashima Goyal, an external member of MPC
Ashima Goyal, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the potential for India's economy to grow at 8% if the nominal repo rate falls in line with declining inflation. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of 7.2% for the current fiscal year.
States hike in healthcare expenditure to help meet India's '2.5% of GDP' target
India's expenditure on health, including clean water and sanitation, is on track to reach the target of 2.5% of GDP by 2024-25. States have surpassed the Centre's allocation to achieve a combined effort of 2.13% of GDP. Despite concerns over declining spending on healthcare systems, increased state allocations may help reach the 2.5% target by 2025.
India’s ‘sin’ is govt’s bounty: GST cess may deliver Rs 70,000 cr bonanza
The Centre is anticipating a significant surplus of approximately Rs 70,000 crore from GST compensation cess collections, even after repaying loans taken during the Covid-19 period on behalf of states. This unexpected windfall is due to robust collections from sin goods like pan masala, cigarettes, and automobiles. Officials suggest that this surplus could allow for early loan repayments and still leave a substantial amount for other uses.
Reduce GST slabs, hike exemption threshold for firms with up to Rs 1.5 cr turnover: GTRI
The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) proposed several reforms to enhance India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) system on its 7th anniversary. Recommendations include raising the GST exemption limit to Rs 1.5 crore for firms (up from Rs 40 lakh), simplifying the tax structure by reducing slabs and eliminating state-wise registration requirements. GTRI highlighted GST's role as the world's largest indirect tax platform, with over 1.46 crore registrations.
RBI MPC minutes: Panelists flag incoming impact of 'exceptionally' warm summers on food inflation
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee members raised concerns about inflation pressures due to "exceptionally" warm summers, impacting perishable goods and crop output, as per their latest meeting minutes. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das expects retail inflation to moderate to 4.5% in FY25 but warns of near-term challenges.
Retail inflations for farm, rural workers remain almost flat in May
Retail inflation for agricultural labourers and rural workers in India remained flat at 7.7% and 7.02% in May, respectively, compared to 7.03% and 6.96% a month ago. The point-on-point inflation rate for CPI-AL was recorded at 7.0% in May 2024, while for CPI-RL, it was at 7.02%. The main items driving the indices were vegetables, pulses, wheat, onion, milk, turmeric, ginger, fish fresh, jowar, pan leaf, medicines, shirting cloth, saree, and leather chappal.
India’s forex reserves dip $2.9 bn to come off all-time record high
India's foreign exchange reserves saw a notable decrease of $2.92 billion to reach $652.9 billion as of June 14, according to data from the Reserve Bank of India. This followed a significant increase of $24.3 billion in the previous week, pushing reserves to a record high of $655.8 billion as of June 7.
India business activity rises in June, job creation at 18-year high
India's business activity expanded at a faster pace this month than in May, thanks to gains in manufacturing and services. The pace of job creation was at its strongest in over 18 years, marking a strong start to the country's economy this financial year. HSBC's flash India Composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 60.9 in June, marking nearly three years above the 50-level separating growth from contraction.
Why food prices will remain high in India
Food inflation in India, driven by supply-side factors like adverse weather affecting crops, has remained at around 8 per cent year-on-year since November 2023. The elevated prices of food has prevented interest rate cuts as headline inflation exceeds the central bank's 4 per cent target. Drought, heat waves, and delayed monsoon rains have led to significant reductions in food supplies, particularly impacting vegetables, while government interventions and upcoming elections further complicate the situation.
Must Watch
India drops seven notches in global FDI ranking, inflows down 43% in 2023
Global FDI fell 2% to $1.3 trillion in 2023 amid an economic slowdown and rising geopolitical tensions. FDI flows to developing countries dropped 7% to $867 billion. Tight financing conditions led to a 26% fall in international project finance deals, critical for infrastructure investment. “Among the top 20 host economies, the largest absolute drops were registered in France, Australia, China, the US and India, in that order,” it said.
Formal job creation under EPFO at 72-month high in April at 1.89 million
Provisional payroll data, released by the ministry of labour and employment on Thursday, shows new formal job created under EPFO was 31.3% higher than 1.44 million net members added to EPFO in March 2024, attributing the surge in membership to various factors, including increased employment opportunities, a growing awareness of employee benefits, and the effectiveness of EPFO's outreach programs.
India most attractive consumer market across the globe: Fibonacci X report
India is emerging as the most attractive consumer market globally, with consumption trends merging with large cities. The services sector is expected to drive strong economic growth, and India is poised to be a global hotspot for economic growth. Manufacturing growth has remained stagnant, but future growth depends on new policy initiatives.
India's roaring growth may not change the story of its great divide, finds economists' poll
A nearly 85% majority of development economists and policy experts, 43 out of 51, in a May 15-June 18 Reuters poll, said they were not confident economic inequality would significantly reduce over the next five years, including 21 who said they had no confidence at all.
Formal job creation under ESIC down by 7.8% in April to 1.64 million as compared to 1.78 million in April 2023
The provisional payroll data, released by the ministry of labour and employment shows that out of the total 1.64 million employees added during the month, 0.78 million employees or 47.6% of the total employees added to ESIC were up to 25 years of age, suggesting more jobs have been generated for the youth of the nation.
Exceptionally hot summer & low reservoir levels to likely impact vegetables, fruit crop: RBI
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) warned on Wednesday that the exceptionally hot summer and low reservoir levels could stress the summer crops of vegetables and fruits, potentially disrupting efforts to control inflation. Governor Shaktikanta Das highlighted that while overall inflation eased, food prices remain volatile and elevated, complicating the inflation battle.
