CHINA GROWTH FORECAST
Apple's iPhone shipments in China surge 40% in May amid aggressive discounting
Shipments of foreign-branded phones in China increased by 1.425 million in May to 5.028 million units from 3.603 million a year earlier，calculations based on the data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) showed.
Fitch raises FY25 India GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent
In its Global Economic Outlook (GEO) released Monday, it raised its forecast for world growth in 2024 to 2.6% from 2.4% estimated earlier. India's economy grew 8.2% in FY24. "We expect the Indian economy to expand by a strong 7.2% in FY25 (an upward revision of 0.2pp from the March GEO)," Fitch Ratings said, adding that investment will continue to rise but more slowly than in recent quarters, while consumer spending will recover with elevated consumer confidence. Purchasing managers survey data point to continued growth at the start of the current financial year.
China's May industrial output misses forecasts, retail sales a bright spot
China's industrial output fell below expectations, leading to calls for fiscal and monetary policy support. Retail sales exceeded forecasts, driven by global demand.
World Bank upgrades global growth outlook on resilient US economy
The World Bank raised its global growth outlook due to resilient consumer spending in the US, but warned of weak growth by historical standards.
China's May exports rise 7.6%, imports increase 1.8%
China's exports rose 7.6% in May, exceeding forecasts. The $18.6 trillion economy shows varying recovery speeds. Data reflects global demand impact on officials' efforts. Reuters poll had predicted lower growth rates.
China's manufacturing surges, Caixin PMI shows, but global risks grow
To counter soft domestic demand and a years-long property crisis, China has boosted infrastructure investment and ploughed funds into high-tech manufacturing to bolster the broader economy this year.
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Moody's raises China's growth forecast to 4.5% for 2024
Growth in the first quarter was boosted by trade and manufacturing activity, with fiscal policy supporting the latter, the ratings agency said.
China's factory activity growth hits 2-year high, Caixin PMI shows
The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in May from 51.4 the previous month, marking the fastest pace since June 2022 and beating analysts' forecasts of 51.5. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
China's factory activity unexpectedly contracts in May
China's manufacturing activity fell in May, with the official factory survey showing a decline. Calls for fresh stimulus persist due to the ongoing property crisis impacting businesses, consumers, and investors.
IMF revises China's GDP to 5% this year; growth may decelerate to 3.3 per cent by 2029, says Gita Gopinath
The 5 per cent growth revision by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is in line with the target set by the Chinese government for the world's second-largest economy which is grappling with a slowdown triggered by the crippling property sector crisis and industrial overcapacity.
IMF upgrades China's 2024, 2025 GDP growth forecasts but warns of risks ahead
"China's economic growth is projected to remain resilient at five percent in 2024 and slow to 4.5 percent in 2025," the IMF said in a press release, adding the decision was "driven by strong first-quarter GDP data and recent policy measures".
Nifty to hit 26,500 in next 18 months, predicts Emkay Investment Managers
The domestic brokerage expects Nifty earnings growth of 15%. It has suggested investors adopting a multi-cap approach, with equal proposition in largecaps and midcaps, to take advantage of a broad-based growth in Indian equity markets. Here are 5 themes to watch out for as suggested by Emaky.
Goldman Sachs expects oil demand to keep growing until 2034
The research division of the bank raised its 2030 crude oil demand forecast to 108.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from 106 million bpd, and expects demand to peak at 110 million bpd in 2034, followed by a long plateau till 2040, analysts led by Nikhil Bhandari said in a report.
India seen to emerge as an economic superpower in impending problem-ridden global financial landscape
Global recession risks have diminished, but inflation concerns threaten financial stability. The IMF, World Bank, and rating agencies forecast a slowdown in global growth, citing Middle East conflicts, financial stress, persistent inflation, and reduced international trade as key risks. The IMF's Global Debt Monitor reveals global debt at $235 trillion, or 238% of global GDP, raising fears of a debt crisis. Fiscal prudence may suffer as many nations face elections this year.
Foreign-themed mutual funds rally up to 80% in a year. Should you go international?
International funds, including top performers like Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF, showed strong growth. However, concerns arise with Sebi's restrictions on overseas ETF investments and varying earnings growth in indices like Hang Seng and CSI 300.
Charting the global economy: US inflation eases; rescue package for China property crisis
Soft retail sales, manufacturing signal cooling demand. As Biden hiked tariffs, China's economic recovery shifted to manufacturing.
UN raises India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9%
The revision by the UN follows similar moves by other multilateral agencies following India's strong economic performance last fiscal.
UN revises India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9%
“India’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2024 and 6.6 per cent in 2025,29 mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption,” the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said.
UN upgrades India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.2%
The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024, released Thursday, said, "India's economy is forecast to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2024 and 6.6 per cent in 2025, mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. Although subdued external demand will continue to weigh on merchandise export growth, pharmaceuticals and chemicals exports are expected to expand strongly."
India benefiting from more investments coming into the country as less foreign investment going into China: UN expert
The UN highlighted India's 'very robust' economic growth, positioning it as an alternative investment destination for western companies. With less foreign investment going into China, India is attracting more western investments, solidifying its position as a key investment source.
IEA lowers global oil-demand growth forecast for 2024
IEA forecasts slower global oil demand growth in 2024 due to mild winter and declining diesel car fleet in developed economies. China to lead demand gains in 2024 and 2025. Structural headwinds like rising vehicle efficiencies also impact demand.
Apple shares jump 7% as record buyback, sales growth forecast lure investors
Apple shares jumped nearly 7% on Friday as the iPhone maker's record stock buyback plan and promise of sales growth brought back investors who have shunned the stock on concerns over weak demand and increased competition in China.
India to grow 6.8% in FY25, public investment to be the driver, says IMF
The IMF recently revised India’s growth forecast upward to 6.8% from 6.5% projected in its January forecast. The fund also revised India’s FY24 growth outlook upward to 7.8%, higher than the government’s projection of 7.6%. “India and the Philippines have been the source of repeated positive growth surprises, supported by resilient domestic demand,” IMF said in its report.
2024 forecast to set new record for electric car sales: IEA
IEA foresees 2024 as a groundbreaking year for electric car sales, especially in China. The global electric vehicle sector is poised for significant growth, driven by increasing investments in battery manufacturing and ambitious expansion plans by automakers.
ASML Q1 bookings miss forecast, but China sales hold up
ASML faces lower Q1 bookings but stable China sales despite U.S. restrictions. Anticipates 2025 growth due to demand from TSMC, Nvidia, Apple, and new chip plants. Shares dropped to 873.40 euros.
IMF raises India’s FY25 growth forecast to 6.8%; FY26 outlook unchanged
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for India's economy, predicting a 6.8% growth in FY25 and 6.5% in 2025. This follows upward revisions by other international lenders, which predict strong domestic demand and a revival in the rural economy. The IMF also revised its FY24 growth forecast to 7.8%, higher than the government's estimate of 7.6% for the year.
China's March exports, imports fall, miss forecasts by large margins
China's March exports dropped by 7.5%, and imports unexpectedly contracted by 1.9%, missing market expectations. This data poses a challenge for policymakers aiming to support the country's fragile economic recovery. Analysts had forecasted a smaller decline in exports and growth in imports. China's trade surplus in March was $58.55 billion.
Economists raising India's FY25 growth forecast on good nine-month show
A revival in spending by private enterprises and tailwinds from expected monetary easing sometime later in the year are expected to keep the economy chugging at the current world-beating pace. Growth for the full year FY24 is now seen at 7.6%. An ET poll conducted before the GDP (gross domestic product) data release had pegged FY25 growth at a median of 6.5%, with forecasts ranging from 5.4% to 7.1%.
IMF revises up Asia's growth forecast, warns of China risk
The IMF projected that emerging Asian economies will expand 5.2% this year, slowing from 2023 but revised up from its forecast three months ago on stronger-than-expected growth in China. China's growth estimate for this year was revised up by 0.4 percentage point to 4.6% on increased government spending. The IMF also warned of the risk that China's growth could underwhelm expectations if authorities resort to 'unintended fiscal tightening'.
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