GLOBAL GOODS TRADE
Why disconnecting global trade from China is so hard
There are several major factors that create a natural limit to how much of a supply chain can be exfiltrated from China, even if sweeteners like free land, tax breaks and cheap utilities are on offer.
Global goods trade rises in Q1 after flat 2023: WTO
The World Trade Organization anticipates a 2.6% growth in world merchandise trade volume for April 2024 and a 3.3% increase for the same month in 2025. Trade values declined by 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, attributed to falling export and import prices.
India’s trade dependence on China, EU rose in Q1 of 2024, says UNCTAD
The UNCTAD nowcast predicts a stronger positive trend for the second quarter of 2024, projecting an approximate 2% increase for the first half of 2024. This increase is expected to add around $250 billion to goods trade and about $100 billion to services trade in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.
Not e-comm alone, one has to be in modern trade, in kirana stores also to build scale: Sunil D'Souza, Tata Consumer
Sunil D'Souza of Tata Consumer says today's consumer who is coming of age is the consumer who is born in a liberalised India. They have seen an India which is confident, growing with an accelerating GDP. So, these consumers are very confident of going out and spending. It is not only premiumisation, the consumer will move to value also.
LEDs... and ACtion: White goods PLI may see light of day, again
The government is considering reopening the Production-Linked Incentive Scheme for White Goods (PLIWG) to boost domestic manufacturing of high-value components like compressors, copper tubes, and aluminium foils. The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) is reaching out to industry players to gauge their interest in investing in the scheme, which aims to increase production of air-conditioner and LED light components.
Modi good not just for India but for entire South Asia: Pakistani-American businessman
Pakistani American businessman Sajid Tarar praises Prime Minister Narendra Modi for ensuring stability in India and South Asia, emphasizing Modi's leadership as crucial for the region's future. Tarar hopes for improved India-Pakistan relations under Modi's leadership, highlighting the need for strong leadership in both countries to address political and economic challenges.
India to drag Australia to WTO arbitration on services trade commitments
India has taken Australia to arbitration at the WTO over changes to services commitments, impacting trade. The new regulations aim to lower global trade costs by $125 billion.
India set for first current account surplus in 10 quarters by Q4FY24: Ind-Ra
India's current account balance (CAB) is projected to reach a surplus of approximately USD 6 billion in Q4 2024, marking the first surplus since Q1 2022. However, the overall CAB for FY24 is expected to remain in deficit at 0.6% of GDP, the lowest since FY17. The global economic environment is showing signs of improvement for 2024, with easing inflationary pressures and robust economic growth in the US and emerging markets.
Adopting global standard, infra, risk-based regulation to help India improve quality of goods for exports: GTRI
The GTRI also recommended support to SMEs, avoiding quality control orders becoming non-tariff barriers, regulatory impact assessment, developing globally acceptable standards and inking mutual recognition pacts with trading partners to strengthen India's quality systems.
Capital goods train delay hits India Inc's capex plans as manufacturers in China & Southeast Asia embark on their own expansion plans
Geopolitical tensions and the Red Sea crisis have increased delivery times for machinery, affecting production lines and capital goods planning for Indian companies like Amber Group and Havells India.
Post-COVID, China is back in Africa and doubling down on minerals
Chinese overseas investment, with a focus on minerals extraction in Africa, is rebounding post-pandemic. However, the relationship remains extractive, not fully aligned with the Belt and Road Initiative's goals outlined by President Xi Jinping.
Trade strains boost cargo rates at pace recalling Covid ‘chaos’
Global goods trade is rebounding, boosting shipping rates and triggering memories of past disruptions for supply-chain managers.
Expecting good response from many companies on EV policy: DPIIT Secy
India expects positive responses from automobile companies on its electric-vehicle policy to attract global players like Tesla through tariff tweaks. The government aims to encourage manufacturers to establish bases in India without incurring costs. Duty concessions and investment commitments are key incentives for setting up manufacturing units. Companies can import CBUs at reduced customs duty.
Biden's China tariffs are the end of an era for cheap Chinese goods
Biden's decision this past week to codify and escalate tariffs imposed by Trump made clear that the United States has closed out a decades-long era that embraced trade with China and prized the gains of lower-cost products over the loss of geographically concentrated manufacturing jobs. A single tariff rate embodies that closure: a 100% tax on Chinese electric vehicles, which start at less than $10,000 each and have surged into showrooms around the world but have struggled to crack government barriers to the U.S. market.
India eyes more Chabahar-like pacts: Ports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal
Sarbananda Sonowal, Union Minister of Ports, Shipping, and Waterways, stated that India aims to replicate the Chabahar port model in other strategic locations in the region to acquire additional assets. In an interview with ET, he emphasized that India is actively investigating opportunities to bolster its maritime presence and trade connectivity.
'US-China trade war escalation may lead to dumping of goods in India': GTRI
The US on Tuesday reignited the trade war with China by announcing a series of proposed tariff increases on imports including electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and various other goods.
Next round of India-Asean trade pact review talks in July
The discussions for review of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA), to make it more trade-facilitative and beneficial for businesses across the region, started in May 2023. The Joint Committee undertaking the review work has met four times so far and has finalised its terms of reference and the negotiating structure for the review negotiations in its first two meetings and initiated the negotiations for review of AITIGA from its third meeting held from February 18-19, 2024 in New Delhi.
Next round of talks for India-Asean trade pact review in July
The discussions for review of AITIGA (Asean-India Trade in Goods Agreement) started in May 2023 to make it more trade-facilitative and beneficial for businesses across the region, the commerce ministry said. A joint committee, which is undertaking the review work, has so far met four times.
Cutting exposure to capital goods, industrial; waiting for IT to bottom out: Devina Mehra
Devina Mehra of First Global reflects on the market's consensus shift towards capital goods, emphasizing the need to monitor potential sector peaks. She also discusses stock market volatility, election impact, and risk management strategies for smallcap stocks. Mehra says: "We have added a few commodity stocks in our last rebalance -- some amount of metal, steel, etc, and even some cement."
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