GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Participatory-note investment surges to Rs 1.49 lakh cr in Mar on strong macroeconomic outlook
Investments through participatory notes in the Indian capital markets rose to Rs 1.49 lakh crore at the end of March from the previous year's level driven by a strong domestic macroeconomic outlook. The latest data includes the value of P-note investments in Indian equity, debt, and hybrid securities.
In 10 years, India no longer a charity case, it's the driving force of world economy: Sanjeev Sanyal
There are no such things as poor people. They are poor places. Say two brothers grew up in Moradabad. One of them stays back in Moradabad and another went off to Dubai. After five years, one person will be earning a lot more than the other. Why does this happen? It is because places matter, says Sanjeev Sanyal
FII action, GST Council outcome among 10 factors to weigh on D-Street this week
Nifty ended with 0.4% gains in a week-long holiday shortened by Bakri Eid. When markets resume trading on Monday, a host of important domestic and global events lined up during the holiday-truncated week are likely to impact them.
Finance Minister on Day 1: Pledges more steps to ensure 'ease of living'; reforms drive to continue
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has expressed optimism for India's economic outlook, stating that reform momentum will continue to spur growth and ensure macro-economic stability. She has emphasized India's "commendable growth story" amid global turmoil and pledged more steps to ensure ease of living. The Indian economy has seen an average of over 8% annual growth since the Covid-induced output contraction in FY21.
Valuations in PSU capital goods, infra & defence remain expensive: Pratik Gupta
The macro environment is extremely stable, whether it is the fiscal deficit, the current account deficit, inflation, forex reserves, so that is really one of the big attractions for both global as well as domestic investors.
Sovereign ratings is for state; at the margins for markets
Sovereign ratings, a product of the pre-depression era when analysts were a rarity and communication was expensive, are turning into dinner-table conversations rather than driving investment decisions.
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RBI projects real GDP growth at 7% in FY25, says outlook for Indian economy remains bright
The Reserve Bank of India's annual report projects a 7% growth for the Indian economy in the current fiscal year. It highlights the economy's resilience and sustained strengthening of macroeconomic fundamentals. The report notes a robust expansion in the previous fiscal year, with real GDP growth reaching 7.6%. Despite headwinds, the outlook remains positive due to government investments and consumer optimism.
RBI's balance sheet size is now 2.5x the size of Pakistan's GDP
The Reserve Bank of India's balance sheet grew by 11.08% to Rs 70.48 lakh crore as of March 31, 2024. The RBI's income rose by 17.04%, while expenditure decreased by 56.30%. Consequently, the RBI's surplus increased by 141.23% to Rs 2.11 lakh crore, transferred to the Centre.
India's growth set to get more broad-based, says Morgan Stanley; pegs 6.8% for 2024
India's strong growth, driven by consumer and business spending, is expected to become more broad-based, according to Morgan Stanley. The global investment bank forecasts 6.8% growth in 2024, attributing it to global offshoring, digitalization, and energy transition. Retail inflation is at 4.83%, within RBI's comfort zone. S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on India to positive, citing robust economic growth and fiscal policies.
Ten yrs on, S&P outlook for India turns 'positive'
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded India's sovereign outlook to 'positive' after 10 years, citing improved public spending quality and expectations of continuity in reforms and fiscal policies. India's rating remains BBB- but could be upgraded if cautious fiscal and monetary policies reduce government debt and interest burden while boosting economic resilience. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman welcomed the upgrade, attributing it to macroeconomic reforms since 2014. Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth expressed confidence in India's economy, highlighting robust growth and improved credit metrics.
Upgrade of India's rating outlook reflects solid growth, promising outlook: Nirmala Sitharaman
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman praised S&P's upgrade of India's rating outlook to positive, citing solid growth and a promising future. She highlighted India's trajectory towards becoming the third-largest economy and achieving Viksit Bharat by 2047. S&P's first positive outlook for India, while retaining the 'BBB-' investment grade, reflects successful macroeconomic reforms since 2014, substantial capital expenditure, fiscal discipline, and visionary leadership. Sitharaman shared these comments in a post on X, emphasizing the significance of this development for India's economic prospects.
Growth momentum likely to stay in Q1FY25: FinMin
The finance ministry's April report predicts strong economic activity in FY25, with rising industrial activity and fixed investments. Positive macro-economic indicators include a bright manufacturing outlook and improved services sector, supported by increased capacity utilization and EPFO data.
RBI approves dividend of Rs 2.11 lakh crore to Centre for FY24, up 140% YoY
RBI DIVIDEND: At its 608th meeting in Mumbai, the Reserve Bank of India approved a dividend of Rs 2.11 lakh crore for the Central government for FY24, marking a 141% increase from FY23's Rs 87,416 crore. This move, reported earlier by ET, aids the Centre in reaching its fiscal deficit target for FY25.
Foreign-themed mutual funds rally up to 80% in a year. Should you go international?
International funds, including top performers like Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF, showed strong growth. However, concerns arise with Sebi's restrictions on overseas ETF investments and varying earnings growth in indices like Hang Seng and CSI 300.
India’s bond index entry not enough to lift rating, Moody’s says
Moody's Ratings credit officer highlights India's need for structural reforms to enhance fiscal metrics despite global bond index inclusion. JPMorgan, Bloomberg, and FTSE Russell to include India in indexes, projecting substantial inflows into the debt market.
Gold rallies on rate cut expectations amid US economy slowdown
Spot gold rose on Friday despite US inflation data, anticipating rate cuts amid a weakening US economy. US CPI and PPI Final demand were below forecasts. US Fed Chair Powell remains optimistic about inflation. US Philadelphia Fed business outlook was below expectations. Fed officials hold varying views on rate adjustments.
Longer for higher rates may dim gold’s shine next week
Next week, US CPI data will be released, which will be crucial for gold. In case of hotter-than-expected inflation data, gold will fall. The bullion rally has coincided with a rally in risk assets and bonds.
Sensex can zoom to 1.5 lakh by 2029 but don't be a speculator
While there are several reasons for this surge, peaks and troughs, booms and busts are an integral part of the stock market saga - much like the waves of the sea, which incessantly rise and fall. Hence, there could be an element of “irrational exuberance”, “froth” and “bubble”.
Clout of Indian bonds takes a lift in Asian bond portfolios, says Morningstar report
The inclusion of Indian local currency sovereign bonds into its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) along with UOB Asset Management's launch of an India-focused bond fund is a strong indication of the changing trends that are now favouring the local bond markets.
5 high-quality stocks backed by analysts with up to 38% one-year upside potential
The stocks that saw an improvement in experts’ perspectives can prove valuable investment bets.
World economy looks to dodge stagflation rut as outlook perks up
The brighter outlook indicates the world economy looks to avoid entering a stagflationary rut — a period of sluggish growth and rising unemployment mixed with elevated inflation
HUL expects improvement in FMCG demand with no price hike in short term
"We expect FMCG demand to continue improving gradually. Forecast of above-normal monsoons and improving macroeconomic indicators augur well. We expect price growth to be a low single-digit decline in the first half of FY24," said Tiwari during earning call.
IT service companies stare at second year of muted revenue growth at 5-7%: Crisil
The subdued outlook is attributed to continuing global macroeconomic headwinds lead to modest increase in technology spends in the key markets of the US and Europe.
Nifty 50 companies likely to log double-digit profit growth in Q4
Net profit for the sample is expected to grow by 15.6% in the March 2024 quarter compared with the 7.5% growth in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is likely to grow by 7.5% on a strong base of 14.1% growth in the year-ago quarter.
Global cues, Q4 earnings, FII flows among six factors to set Dalal Street trajectory this week
After a positive start, the market outlook remains optimistic for the upcoming holiday shortened week. Stock markets will be closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr, with investors keeping an eye on global signals. 'The upcoming week kicks off the earnings season, with attention on IT giants first,' says Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research at Religare Broking.
Macro data, global cues, IPOs among 6 factors that will steer D-Street this week
The benchmark Nifty 50 has formed a Doji candle on the daily charts as it stayed below the psychologically crucial 22,500 mark, with call option writers significantly increasing their positions at the 22,500 strike. The near-term uptrend for the index remains intact.
RBI holds rates; monetary stance change, rate cuts must wait
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained interest rates and monetary stance steady for the sixth consecutive monetary review meeting, amid geopolitical tensions and uncertain food prices. The central bank forecasts the economy will repeat its performance next fiscal, expanding at 7%, and inflation will remain above the target at 4.5%. The panel's focus on the withdrawal of accommodation has led to cracks in the Monetary Policy Committee, with both decisions voted 5 to 1.
Why outlook for base metals continues to be neutral in 2024
Copper ended the previous year with a gain of 2% while aluminium and lead prices lost 1% and 4%, respectively. In the meantime, zinc was the worst-performing metal in the group shedding more than 14% in the domestic market and 10% in the overseas market.
Big tech companies in India near hiring pause amid global turmoil
These companies - Facebook (Meta Platforms), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix and Google (Alphabet) -registered a 90% drop in active job postings in India in 2023 compared with the previous year, according to data put together for ET by specialist staffing firm Xpheno.
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