GOVERNMENT SPENDING
Expect 8-10% industry volume growth for FY-25: Mohan Bangur, Shree Cement
So, in the next three quarters, the demand has to meet around 9% to 10% to make up for the lost time. In the first quarter, there were elections, there were water shortage, uncertainty of election results were there, now all those is over.
Budget 2024: What is a Populist Budget and why is it controversial?
A populist budget is a fiscal plan focused on immediate public appeal through measures like tax cuts and social spending increases. Criticized for prioritizing short-term benefits over long-term economic stability, such budgets can lead to fiscal deficits, inflationary pressures, and disparities in resource distribution, while potentially undermining independent economic institutions.
Why the Government needs a Budget: Understanding the importance and role
Union Budget 2024: Any political party that assumes government, whether through majority or coalition, in India shoulders significant responsibilities towards society, politics, and the economy. It is crucial to allocate resources in a manner that facilitates progress in a country as diverse as India, with its rich cultural, religious, and economic diversity.
Budget 2024: Five steps of India's Budget formation explained
Budget 2024: The Union Budget, crafted annually by the Department of Economic Affairs within the Ministry of Finance, functions as a comprehensive financial blueprint for the nation. It details projected revenues and expenditures for the forthcoming fiscal year. The preparation process for Budget 2024 commenced six months ahead of its presentation, initiating with the dissemination of Budget Circulars to pertinent ministries and departments.
GIFT Nifty signals a positive start for D-Street. Here's the trading setup for today's session
Domestic markets continued to reach new record highs, building on gains made since the election results. "The market is also benefiting from positive trends in global markets, particularly in the US as it progresses steadily towards the presidential election in November. Volatility has decreased this month, supporting a short-term upward trend," explained Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal.
India Inc braces for revenue uncertainties in Q1 on slow govt spending, monsoon onset: Icra
Corporates are preparing for revenue uncertainties in the April-June period due to a slowdown in government spending and the onset of the monsoon season, as reported by domestic rating agency Icra. Sequential revenue growth is expected to taper in the first quarter of the fiscal, with a 6.
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Milind Karmarkar on two sectors that may outperform in Modi 3.0
Power utilities have already done well and possibly they will continue to do well because there is growth in that sector. So, many of these companies are putting in new power plants and things like that. So, there is definitely growth in that sector.
Budget likely to stick to fiscal road map: UBS
UBS predicts that the new government will follow a medium fiscal consolidation path but with a populist tilt in its first budget after the elections. The RBI's higher-than-expected dividend transfer to the government provides fiscal leeway for populist spending, especially to support lower-income groups. The government is expected to target a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP in FY25, aiming to reduce it further to below 4.5% of GDP by FY26. While tougher reforms may be challenging, supply-side reforms like manufacturing, labour laws, and skill development are likely to continue.
Markets should double in next four-five years: Milind Karmarkar
Maybe we will look at it at that point in time, but right now we miss getting into it early, but as of now we do not want to buy it.
No single theme to drive market; volatility to continue: Milind Karmarkar
So, my belief is that whenever a coalition is at the centre, then you see a decent growth. The clear focus is economics. The clear focus is to do better for the masses and that is what drives the markets, that is what drives the economy as well.
Chakri Lokapriya's top midcap stock picks for near term
I think defence, semiconductor, industrial, infra are easy reforms for the current government in the current shape to continue because even the allies, for instance, Naidu is a very reform-oriented person.
Why investors are favouring FMCG stocks after elections
One key reason behind FMCG becoming a preferred choice in today’s time was this year’s general election. It was the most expensive affair with an estimated campaign cost incurred by political parties reaching a record Rs 1.35 lakh crore. A significant share of this pie moves into the pockets of rural India.
Weaker BJP in power won't increase borrowing in July budget, says Kotak Mahindra Bank
Budget 2024: A weaker majority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance may lead to increased welfare spending without the need for additional borrowing, potentially limiting a rise in bond yields, according to a senior executive at Kotak Mahindra Bank . The government is expected to utilize a large dividend from the Reserve Bank of India for welfare schemes, rather than increasing gross borrowing in the upcoming budget. Despite concerns of populist measures, the executive rules out a supply cut in bonds and forecasts the 10-year benchmark yield to remain below 7.10% over the next six months.
Pakistan to unveil Rs 18 trillion budget on June 12: Minister
The Pakistan government is likely to present the budget with the outlay of around Rs 18 trillion for the financial year 2024-25 on June 12, a minister said on Wednesday. The government will table the budget in the National Assembly after approval from the Cabinet, The Express Tribune newspaper reported, quoting the Minister of State for Finance Ali Pervaiz Malik.
BJP-led NDA's narrow majority shifts focus to rural spending and increased private investments
The recent election results in India saw the ruling BJP-led NDA secure a majority, though narrower than expected. A Bernstein report predicts increased focus on direct social schemes, especially in rural areas. Private sector investments are expected to drive the capex cycle, with implications for economic growth and market dynamics. Market volatility is anticipated due to policy uncertainty, while financials remain a key sector.
Icra revises domestic steel demand growth rate to 10 pc for FY25
ICRA revises FY2025 steel demand growth to 9-10% due to strong government spending and sector demand, leading to increased earnings and India remaining a net steel importer in the current fiscal.
RBI to face problem of plenty: Prepare for bond sales
The RBI's challenge for the year may not be inflation but liquidity. Government spending resumption and overseas fund flows complicate monetary policy effectiveness.
Setting up shop for turbo policy
India's economic growth of 8.2% in 2023-24 surpasses historical hurdles, reflecting policy continuity's impact on performance.
First among equals: 5 PSU stocks which have benefited the most due to government policy push, spending & may continue their journey
Right from perennial under-performers like oil marketing and refining companies to PSU banks. Literally every stock which has the tag of “PSU” stock has seen a re-rating in the last two years. Now that the exit polls are predicting what the street has been looking for, that is continuity in the policy making framework, there is a high probability that there will be another round of re-rating of PSU stocks. So, continued policy and continued re-rating. Like the earlier re-rating, this time also, some sectors and stocks in the PSU space will outperform others. A company which is going to be providing finance for the expansion of the solar energy network which is the next focus area of the government. The overall demand runway for some of the sectors is longer. This essentially means that while every PSU is likely to see a push, there are a select few which are likely to see more tailwinds of business growth and valuation expansion.
At 5.6% of GDP, FY24 fiscal gap beats target
In absolute terms, the FY24 fiscal deficit stood at ?16.54 lakh crore, down from the revised estimate of ?17.35 lakh crore and FY23 level of ?17.38 lakh crore, showed the official data released on Friday. A lower-than-anticipated deficit in FY24 and a generous surplus transfer by RBI earlier this month make the government's goal of reining in fiscal gap at 5.1% of GDP in FY25 seem more realistic now, experts said.
Defence stocks: Long runway, hedge a bit to avoid narrative-based decisions; 8 PSU & Pvt sector stocks, 4 with upside potential of upto 44%
In an election season, there are bound to be times when one or the other narrative may make one question about whether one should sell the stocks. The underlying reason would be fear of losing the gains on which one is sitting. Especially when it comes to sectors like defence, railways and others which have seen a strong re-rating and siting with big gains and already there has been skepticism about their stock price moving ahead of time. Now let's look at the issue in two ways, first is whether the fundamentals of the sector are on a strong foot and business is fine or not. Second, how to hedge the exposure so that one is not forced to sell due to narrative, because the fact is that a continuation in policy push means that the companies have just started their journey. While defence PSUs are well known, there are other private sector players, whose lifeline is dependent on defence expenditure and in the last few years they have also done well, both on the street and in terms of real business. So, it is better that one should hedge and stay with them and not get jittery because of one or the other narrative which will keep hitting the street till 4th June.
Ten yrs on, S&P outlook for India turns 'positive'
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded India's sovereign outlook to 'positive' after 10 years, citing improved public spending quality and expectations of continuity in reforms and fiscal policies. India's rating remains BBB- but could be upgraded if cautious fiscal and monetary policies reduce government debt and interest burden while boosting economic resilience. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman welcomed the upgrade, attributing it to macroeconomic reforms since 2014. Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth expressed confidence in India's economy, highlighting robust growth and improved credit metrics.
Banks seek one more month to comply with international card spend rule
Indian lenders are seeking a one-month extension from the government to comply with the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for international credit card spends. The scheme allows Indian residents to remit up to $250,000 abroad in a financial year for permissible purposes such as education, travel, and investment. Last year, the government announced that forex transactions through credit cards would be covered under the scheme and charged 20% tax collected at source (TCS) beyond the threshold of ₹7 lakh per fiscal.
Leave gaming to the real mai-baap
Gaming is a significant industry in India, with around 57 million active gamers, the second-largest globally after China. Children, youngsters, and women form a significant part of this user base, enabled by increased broadband penetration, smartphone adoption, and local content creation. However, the government is considering imposing time and spending limits on gamers to address gaming addiction, sparking concerns about state overreach. Instead, the focus should be on raising awareness about screen time and letting parents make informed choices, rather than intrusive regulations.
Candidates of strong directional move on 4th June: 5 PSU stocks which have benefited the most due to government policy push and spending
In the last two years, it is a well known fact that every PSU stock has been re-rated by the street, right from perennial under-performers like oil marketing and refining oil companies to PSU banks. But if one looks a bit deeper there are some which have been re-rated more than others. The reason, these are PSUs which are from the sectors where the government has clearly decided are its priority areas and there has been a policy push for these sectors. A company which is going to be providing finance for the expansion of the solar energy network which is the next focus of the government. The overall demand runway for these sectors is longer which means overall growth will be higher when confirmation of policy continuity comes. Also they are in business where it would be difficult for the private sector to compete. Now because it is the policy push which matters, the continuity of tailwinds of higher government spending, will push them for another round of re-rating on the result day.
RBI's ₹2 lakh-crore boost may help India's new govt have an easy-peasy run to achieve a goal
The RBI on May 22 announced a record-high dividend transfer to the government equivalent to 0.6 per cent of GDP ( Rs 2.1 lakh) from its operations in FY24. The figure has surpassed the 0.3 per cent of GDP expected in the FY25 budget from February. Hence, the rating agency said that it will aid the authorities in meeting near-term deficit reduction goals.
Govt's cash balance surges, banks starve
The ongoing general elections have led to a surplus in government cash balances, impacting the banking sector due to reduced spending. The Centre's adoption of efficient fund management practices has resulted in over ₹3 lakh crore in cash balances, affecting borrowing costs and liquidity in the market.
RBI's record dividend presents a delicious dilemma for new Indian government
As India prepares for a new government by June 4, a significant Rs 2.11 lakh crore windfall awaits allocation. Options range from faster deficit reduction to increased spending. Analysts anticipate positive investor sentiment, though preferences vary between deficit reduction and expenditure. The BJP-led government's cautious approach contrasts with opposition promises
Slow spending by India government may prompt more cash infusion
India's federal government spending is expected to remain sluggish for several more months, leading to potential measures to inject liquidity into the banking system. Recent actions include three short-term securities buybacks and alterations in treasury bill borrowings. Slower spending is attributed to the ongoing national election.
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