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5 world market themes for the week ahead
The upcoming week promises significant market activity with pressure on Joe Biden's election prospects, anticipation of a Fed rate cut, key Q2 earnings reports, an ECB meeting, and the unveiling of the UK legislative agenda by King Charles. Analysts and investors should brace for developments from the U.S., Europe, and China that could influence global markets.
RBI job data matches with govt's: SBI Report
The latest SBI Research Ecowrap report highlights that the Reserve Bank of India's KLEMS data and the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) employment numbers from the government closely align. According to the report, the RBI's KLEMS data estimates India's total labour force at 597 million, whereas the ASUSE survey by MoSPI puts it at 568 million, indicating a negligible difference.
Starmer takes power as prime minister as UK Labour Party sweeps to power in historic election win
Keir Starmer officially became British Prime Minister following a landslide victory for the Labour Party after over a decade in opposition. He took office after a private ceremony with King Charles III at Buckingham Palace, succeeding Conservative leader Rishi Sunak, who resigned after conceding defeat. Labour secured 410 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, with Starmer acknowledging the mandate as a responsibility to rebuild trust amid economic challenges and societal fractures.
Who is Victoria Starmer? How will Kier Starmer's wife be different from Akshata Murty?
Will Victoria Starmer relocate to London's 10 Downing Street from their family house in Kentish Town, where her two children still live? Will she remain cocooned in her work and home or she will share the global limelight with her husband Kier Starmer?
UK election-winner Starmer inherits weak economy with 'no magic wand'
Living standards have stagnated since Conservatives took power in 2010 and Britain's recovery from the COVID pandemic has been the weakest among big rich nations after Germany. Starmer will be under pressure to use Labour's huge majority in parliament to end the sense of decline, from creaking public services and inflation-hit personal finances to a shortage of housing and weak business investment.
Britain’s economy isn’t seeing growth anywhere near India’s 7% GDP rise — this has caused fewer differences between the Conservatives and Labour: Jaideep Prabhu
The UK election landscape is marked by economic uncertainties post-Brexit, minimal policy distinctions between parties, and environmental concerns driving voter engagement. Influential figures like Farage, Johnson, and Sunak shape political narratives, while climate change discussions underscore the urgency for sustainable solutions amidst global warming threats.
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Asian shares shaky as investors wary before US inflation data
Asian stocks hesitated in early trade amid anticipation for a crucial U.S. inflation reading. Concerns over potential Japanese intervention lingered as the yen approached 160 per dollar. Japan and Taiwan stocks rallied, while China's market saw a slight decline. Fed comments and stable housing market data influenced rate cut expectations.
UK public debt rises to highest since 1961 as election nears
In May, British public debt reached its highest level since 1961, standing at 99.8% of GDP, or £2.742 trillion. Despite lower-than-expected borrowing of £15 billion for the month, the ongoing fiscal challenges persist, influenced by pandemic-related spending, slow economic growth, and high interest rates.
Income tax relief for those in lowest slab may need to be considered in Budget: CII
Sanjiv Puri, newly-elected CII President, advocates potential income tax relief for the lowest slab amidst high inflation in the upcoming 2024-25 Budget. He proposes institutional platforms for consensus-building on reforms, emphasizing public capex, fiscal discipline, and investment in social infrastructure. CII anticipates inflation around 4.5%, urging RBI rate cuts by year-end.
Utpal Sheth on key megatrends that can shape India's future growth
“Even one megatrend will create multiple types of opportunities, multiple types of companies and business models that you will be able to participate in. I think the way the financial savings in the country will get channelised will be another megatrend,” says the CEO of Rare Enterprises.
The show must go on: Push agriculture, make states fiscally responsible, avoid the middle income trap & stick to the PoA
The Indian electorate has defied predictions of certainty, but the economic agenda for India remains unchanged. Despite impressive economic progress since 1991, India remains a low-middle-income economy. Policy priorities include urban expansion, modernization of agriculture, tackling unemployment, and addressing state-level disparities. Additionally, India must prepare for challenges such as aging populations and technological advancements to sustain growth.
NITES alleges Infosys delayed onboarding of 2k campus recruits
"Many had turned down other job offers in good faith, relying on Infosys' offer letters. Now, they face financial hardship and uncertainty due to the lack of income and a clear onboarding timeline. Infosys' actions constitute a serious breach of trust with these young professionals. They trusted Infosys to provide a smooth transition into their careers, but instead, they've been left in limbo," the union said in a statement.
World unemployment to fall slightly in 2024: UN
The International Labour Organization (ILO) predicts a slight decrease in global unemployment in 2024, contrary to its earlier forecast of a rise, citing "slow progress" in addressing inequalities. Despite improvements, disparities persist, with women in low-income countries disproportionately affected. The ILO calls for inclusive policies to ensure a fair recovery.
India seeks more presence at decision-making level of ILO
India pushes for enhanced representation at ILO by revising criteria to include demographic dividend, global demand-supply gap, and population/labor workforce. This aims for equitable decision-making and strategic alignment with labor-related issues.
Alarm bells ringing in economy, households slowly sinking into debt: Congress slams govt
The report states that this "dramatic" fall in savings is due to weak income growth, which explains why both private consumption and household investment growth have remained markedly subdued in 2023-24, Jairam Ramesh said.
Unemployed graduate? If you are struggling to find your first income, here are 6 ways to navigate this challenge
If you have recently graduated and are struggling to find your first income, here’s how you can navigate this challenge.
Narendra Modi sets ambitious economic goals for probable third term
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set an ambitious target of doubling the economy and exports this decade, with the aim of making the economy the third largest in the world if he wins a third term in a row. He has asked officials to finalise plans by around May to expand the economy to $6.69 trillion in nominal terms by 2030, from around $3.51 trillion currently. The document states that doubling the economy by the end of the decade would be a "very difficult feat" requiring 6%-6.5% growth for the next seven years along with inflation of 4.5%.
View: Market fix for inequality
The real danger with the equality messiahs is their favoured policy prescription, namely tax. Applying Western narratives on taxing the rich more on their incomes and wealth is counterproductive in India.
Despite robust GDP growth, why is household spending still sluggish?
Management teams question weak growth despite fast economy post strong GDP release. Factors include investment-led recovery, falling labor share, surplus workers, capital ownership, small businesses, global commodity prices, real estate market, labor market slack, digital payments, Arthur Lewis, Simon Kuznets, India's growth model.
"Modi's Billionaire Raj more unequal than British Raj": Congress slams Centre over income inequality report
Jairam Ramesh said the share of national income earned by India's top 1 per cent is now at its highest historical levels and is among the highest globally. The rise of top-end inequality has been particularly pronounced between 2014 and 2023, which corresponds to the "dus saal anyay kaal' and the Modi government's policies have directly caused this perverse growth through three methods -- enrich the rich, impoverish the poor and hide the data, he said.
What the US economy needs is a cheap date
Food prices have increased by 25%, taking up over 11% of income in the US. Despite inflation, people spend more in restaurants. Meanwhile, TVs, air conditioning, and car services became cheaper. This has resulted in a big drop in the standard of living for many people. There has been a lot of theorising about why so many Americans feel worse off economically. True, real wages are now finally increasing, the labour market is great, the stock market is up, and consumers are spending. But none of this amounts to a complete picture of Americans' quality of life.
Rural spending getting captured in urban consumption; women SHGs helping boost incomes: SBI Research
According to SBI Research, improvements in physical infrastructure and connectivity have led to a shift in rural demand and supply patterns, with rural spending being captured in urban areas. The phenomenal growth in the income of self-help groups and increased banking linkages are contributing factors, with rural female labour force participation rising due to the support provided by self-help groups.
What can Bihar, with per-capita income 30% of national average, do to shed its low-income status?
Bihar's economy has grown faster than the national economy, but it remains India's poorest state in terms of per-capita income. It faces challenges such as low urbanization, gender disparities, and low enrollment in higher education. Improving these areas is crucial for Bihar's prosperity and India's development goals.
What should Gujarat do, fuelled by its remarkable growth, to leapfrog to high-income status?
Gujarat has set an example in fiscal efficiency, economic growth and socioeconomic benchmarks. It should now aim to become an innovation hub to redefine its growth story and defy the prevalent middle-income trap. That way, it could become a role model for the country, as well as the developing world.
All is well: FM Sitharaman rubbishes claims of Indian economy’s ‘K-shaped’ unequal growth
In a post-Budget 2024 interaction, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman dismissed assertions of a K-shaped recovery in India's post-COVID-19 economy, challenging critics who link good growth solely to rural luxury purchases. She emphasized that the government rejects the 'letter attribution' to the economy's growth, maintaining that every sector is contributing to overall growth.
Didn't use this Budget for elections, but for growth direction: Nirmala Sitharaman
First of all, this debt to GDP matter is being spoken conveniently by cherry-picking data. Look at the globe, look at the countries, even developed countries, some of them and their debt to GDP ratios are stunningly different from ours, in the sense they are even 300% more.
Controversy mounts over shutdown of company owned by Rishi Sunak's wife
Controversy swirls as Akshata Murty closes Catamaran Ventures, her investment firm. Labour probes implications, raising concerns about government-backed businesses and tax payments. Holdings to be transferred to charity amid scrutiny.
View: Post-Covid recovery of poor households exceeds expectations. But many still need a leg-up
The recovery was aided by benefits received through welfare schemes of both state and central governments, which helped bolster support for those households that lost their earnings due to the pandemic. However, financial inclusion at the bottom of the pyramid needs to be enhanced to ensure they are not overwhelmed by informal debt.
Global unemployment to fall to 5.3%; low-income countries fall back in recovery process: ILO
ILO projects that low-income countries in Africa and the Arab region are unlikely to recover to pre-pandemic levels of unemployment this year. For North Africa, the unemployment rate in 2023 is projected to be 11.2% compared to 10.9% in 2019, 6.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa as against 5.7% in 2019 and 9.3% for the Arab states as against 8.7% in 2019).
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