MARKET RATE
The yield curve and what to bear in mind
Now, the market has been divided into which part of the curve to remain focussed on, as the yield curve has flattened. Whether you take 1y Tbill or 30yGSEC, the rates are around 7%, give or take. The RBI repo rate as everyone knows, is 6.5% - the next move, we and the market believe, will be down, but the timing is not clear basis current inflationary dynamics
IMF says emerging market capital inflows recover to 2018 levels
The IMF's External Sector Report indicated gross capital inflows into emerging markets, excluding China, hit $110 billion or 0.6% of GDP last year, the highest since 2018, amidst high U.S. interest rates. These markets showed resilience. China faced net outflows and negative FDI. Net portfolio inflows dipped; FDI held steady. (David Lawder; Franklin Paul)
Expect US Fed to cut interest rates in September: Anurag Singh
My sense is that ultimately the 10-year, even by the end of next year, goes till say about 3.5%, that is an attractive number for US investors, but that is not attractive enough for them to really open the floodgates investing into emerging markets.
Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors rotate out of Big Tech
The Nasdaq fell sharply due to Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms losses amid inflation data. Smaller companies rallied, boosting the Russell 2000. Heavy U.S. trading was noted as the S&P 500 fell and real estate rose 2.7%. Delta and Conagra Brands forecast lower profits; Tesla delayed robotaxi launch. Citigroup fined $136M.
Asian stocks fall after US tech slump; Yen swings: Markets wrap
Asian equities fell amid US inflation signs. Yen fluctuated due to Bank of Japan actions. Japanese shares, Kospi dropped, while Australian shares rose. Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%. S&P 500 and small-caps gained. Rate cut optimism drove riskier investments. West Texas Intermediate rose; gold steady. July rate cut a longshot. AI boosts megacap tech. Treasury yields down.
US economy no longer overheated, Fed's Powell tells Congress
Fed Chair Jerome Powell informed Congress that the U.S. job market has cooled from its pandemic extremes, indicating a stronger case for potential interest rate cuts. Powell emphasized the balance of risks the Fed now faces, highlighting recent improvements in inflation and economic conditions. Despite not signaling specific future actions, analysts suggest Powell's remarks hint at a possible rate cut as early as September. The Fed’s policy rate remains at 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023. Powell’s semiannual Senate testimony will be followed by a House hearing on Wednesday.
Tomato rates surge to Rs 90/kg in Delhi markets as supplies hit due to rains
Tomato prices in city markets have hit Rs 90 per kg due to supply disruptions from heavy monsoon rains. Residents and vendors alike express concern over the sudden increase from Rs 28 per kg. Transportation issues from states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Himachal are cited as reasons for the price surge.
Dollar gains before Fed's Powell testimony
The U.S. dollar gained on Tuesday before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress, with investors looking for any fresh clues on potential interest rate cuts as data points to a slowing economy.
Gold & silver weekly outlook: Bullion to remain positive but with a twist: Key points to focus
In other supportive sentiments, the Reserve Bank of India added more than nine tons in June, according to calculations from World Gold Council analyst data.
Asian stocks edge higher before Powell’s testimony: Markets wrap
Asian markets rise ahead of Powell's testimony and US earnings season. Investors eye Fed's rate cut outlook and China's policy meetings. Bond markets react to PBOC actions. S&P 500 hits new high. Earnings season expectations increase. Oil stable amid Hurricane Beryl. Gold rebounds from previous losses.
Ajay Bagga on Trump's influence and sectoral performance in Indian markets
The Chairman of Elyments Platforms highlights the slowdown in the US economy, noting softer labor markets and slowing wage growth. Despite market expectations of rate cuts in September and December, Fed officials remain cautious, waiting for more data. Bagga also discusses the potential impact of a likely Trump victory in the upcoming elections on global markets, emphasizing increased borrowing costs, lower taxes, and tighter immigration policies.
Telecom tariffs are decided by market dynamics, govt clarifies
Government stated it does not interfere with telecom rates, which are determined by market forces. Tariff changes are monitored by Trai. India offers some of the lowest mobile service costs globally.
What Labour victory means for India-UK ties & markets? Arnab Das explains
There is a disconnect where the geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions are high. Still, the reality of the macro on the ground is that the integration continues. So, there is not going to be any big rupture in Asia, but there is going to be a continuing integration or continuing alignment of India and other countries in Asia with the West including the UK, Invesco’s Arnab Das.
Buy RateGain Travel Technologies, target price Rs 900: Prabhudas Lilladher
RateGain Travel Technologies Ltd., incorporated in the year 2012, is a Large Cap company (having a market cap of Rs 9477.98 Crore) operating in General sector.
Global stocks hit peak level before US jobs data: Markets wrap
Global equities maintain record highs ahead of US jobs data. Markets anticipate potential Fed rate cuts. Emerging market equities benefit from soft US economic data. UK Labour Party projected to win big, impacting Conservative performance. France prepares for final round of parliamentary elections.
Asian stocks climb, Yen rallies off historic lows: Markets wrap
Investors await US jobs report and British election outcome. Unemployment rate expected to remain steady. Chicago Fed President comments on interest rates.
US weekly jobless claims rise labor market slows
The labor market shows signs of easing as unemployment benefits claims increase. Layoffs rise due to interest rates impacting demand, and challenges in seasonal data adjustments persist. Market anticipates Fed's potential rate cuts. Job cuts decrease in June, but higher than last year. Nonfarm payrolls data may reveal job increase. Job openings ratio remains steady, while Fed deliberates policy changes post-hikes. Continuing claims rise due to policy effects.
Competitive intensity in used vehicle market to be on the rise: India Ratings
India Ratings and Research predicts that vehicle financiers will increase the share of used vehicles in their AUM due to rising new vehicle prices, food inflation, heat wave, moderation in capacity utilization due to elections, and slowing rural economy. The agency also expects a decrease in FY25 growth rates from FY24 levels. The agency expects non-bank finance companies to focus on used vehicles as assets class, presenting a favorable risk-return in terms of asset quality and pricing power.
5 world market themes for the week ahead
Central bank decisions in Britain, Switzerland, and Norway will show the rate cutting trend, while retail sales data from the US and China will indicate consumer health. Europe gears up for the Euros 2024 tournament in Germany. Investors are monitoring cocoa supply issues in Ivory Coast, Ghana, and other countries like Brazil.
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