MARKET SCENARIO
No doubt in India's long term story; don't see much scope for big earnings downgrade: Sanjeev Prasad
So, at this point in time I do not know whether there is much scope of earnings upgrades. Also, keep in mind the fact that in the last few quarters, a lot of earnings growth has come from positive surprises or increase in profitability and margins, not so much as volume growth. And fortunately, in some sectors, we are still not seeing really meaningful signs of volume recovery.
In the short run, good case for market upside; be careful as best-case scenarios priced in: Hemang Jani
Market expert Hemang Jani advises caution amidst rising markets. Trump’s potential return and US rate cut boost prospects. Bajaj Auto benefits from export recovery, monsoon, CNG launch; Hero Motor favored. Telecom sector positive with ARPU gains, Indus Tower strong. Dairy firms Parag, Hatsun, Dodla, and South Indian companies show promising growth, with favorable TDP relevance.
Fund Manager Talk | Worried about valuations in bull market? Nippon CIO on what to buy
Over the last few years, we have witnessed multiple policy enablers across areas like manufacturing, formalization, taxation, etc which has created a sound platform for future growth. In the upcoming budget we expect continuity in terms of policy measures and fiscal prudence.
Looking at a Goldilocks scenario for corporate earnings? Mukul Kochhar is betting on 3 sectors
Mukul Kochhar says growth will be structurally higher by a percent, percent-and-a-half and one factor is the current account surplus which should get us into a more stable economic growth cycle. I feel that the private capex cycle is going to be very strong and going to focus a little bit on manufacturing.
What can be the risk to the India bull case scenario? Jonathan Garner answers
There has been unprecedented heat in SoutheastAsia also over the last couple of months. So, I would highlight that as really quite a pressing issue at the moment. I think some of the traditional issues around, let us say, oil import bill and that sort of thing or vulnerability to Fed cycles, they have been much diminished now that the current and capital account situation in India is so much stronger.
SBI, GAIL, HAL among 43 stock ideas as BJP’s bear case scenario plays out
PhillipCapital predicts positive trends with BJP's potential return to power. Top stock picks recommended by the brokerage include ICICI Bank, SBI, Infosys and others.
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Full majority, just majority, hung parliament: S&P Global Market Intelligence analyses scenarios and road ahead for India
S&P Global Market Intelligence anticipates continued policy emphasis on strategic sectors post the Lok Sabha election, regardless of outcomes. Factors influencing voter choices include economic growth, inflation, employment, and foreign policy. The analysis explores three election result scenarios, projecting implications on sectors and foreign policy strategies.
Cement, infra are key sectors to look at because of prospect of policy continuity: Pankaj Pandey
Pankaj Pandey discusses the impact of the incumbent government's majority on the market, focusing on earnings, Budget expectations, and sector performance post-elections. Pandey further says once this monsoon gets over the focus will shift towards the overall infra spend side. Cement has not seen much of a price performance and key players like ACC, Ambuja, UltraTech or JK Cement are going to experience a slightly better growth rate than the industry.
Growth momentum likely to stay in Q1FY25: FinMin
The finance ministry's April report predicts strong economic activity in FY25, with rising industrial activity and fixed investments. Positive macro-economic indicators include a bright manufacturing outlook and improved services sector, supported by increased capacity utilization and EPFO data.
How will stock market react to election results? Here are 3 possible scenarios
Investors are closely monitoring India's elections, with low voter turnout and betting market predictions fueling uncertainty. Sensex is down over 1,700 points this month. Analysts assess potential market reactions to different election outcomes, from outright BJP victory to coalition scenarios.
Mahesh Patil on the biggest sectoral overweights and underweights in current market scenario
Where the results are good, we are seeing those companies getting very well rewarded, especially in the industrial, capital goods sector, the real estate sector. But in sectors where there have been some disappointments like in the consumer space the stocks have also equally reacted on the other side.
Berger Paints India Q4 Results: Standalone net profit falls over 7% YoY to Rs 181.6 crore
Berger Paints India has crossed Rs 10,000 crore in sales and Rs 1,000 crore in profit in 2023-24 (Apr-Mar), helped by double-digit growth in sales volume and operating profit growing by nearly a fourth.
Macrotech Developers to invest Rs 3,500-4,000 cr this fiscal to acquire land parcels
Realty firm Macrotech Developers Ltd plans to invest Rs 3,500-4,000 crore this fiscal to acquire land for housing projects and capitalize on the increasing demand for residential properties. The company aims for a 60:40 mix of owned land and joint development agreements, with a target of 10,000 apartment deliveries this year.
Not in 'rat race' to be top builder in terms of sale bookings, says Macrotech Developers MD
When asked about the reason for setting a conservative sale bookings guidance considering that few players posted more than Rs 20,000 crore pre-sales in FY24 itself, Lodha told PTI, "We are not in any rat race and neither our shareholders are bothered about any such rat race." "We want to achieve consistent growth. Consistent growth and predictable growth with low leverage is very important and that is our business model," he said.
OIS climb hints at rate hike now, crushes hopes of a cut
Given the declining trajectory of local inflation - particularly core inflation - it is unlikely that the Reserve Bank of India would turn to rate hikes after maintaining a status quo on rates for more than a year. What the rise in swap rates show more than anything else is heightened risk aversion and the damage done to rate cut expectations by the abrupt ratcheting up of tensions in the Middle East.
What the fresh march higher in oil means for world markets
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday described an "adverse scenario" in which an escalation of conflict in the Middle East would lead to a 15% jump in oil prices and higher shipping costs that would hike global inflation by about 0.7 percentage points. The tightness in oil supplies, and higher prices, has been underpinned by oil producing group OPEC and other big oil producers curbing their output.
75,000? Don’t be scared by levels. It is never late to invest
Financial advisers always insist on the process of asset allocation for every investor. Only the composition of the assets in the portfolio could defer depending upon age. Also, they say that it’s not ‘the timing of the market’ that’s important for wealth creation, instead it’s ‘the time in the market’ that’s important.
Sensex hits 75,000, was at 25,000 when PM Modi won 10 years ago
The BSE sensex, India's most closely watched stock market bellwether, crossed the 75,000-point mark on Tuesday, indicating past successes of the Indian economy and market and raising hopes for future wealth creation. On the NSE, Nifty also reached a new lifetime high of 22,768 points during early sessions before closing at 22,643, down 24 points.
Want to be a bit cautious now; not doing any fresh purchases: Dipan Mehta
Dipan Mehta advises caution on high valuation stocks like Tata Tech, KPIT, Tata Elxsi. He remains optimistic about IT sector triggers, avoids startup investments, and sees potential in automobile and private banking sectors. He believes the IT sector eventually will start to do much better than the rest of the market.
US Fed meet outcome today: Two possible scenarios that Dalal Street can look at
US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate amid higher inflation and strong job market data. Market eagerly awaits the Fed's guidance on potential rate cuts and future policy actions.
Nifty at 15,500? PhillipCapital sees 6,500-point correction in worst-case scenario; here’s why
In the worst-case scenario, Nifty could test 16,000-15,500 levels, a 6,523 points or 30% fall. In this case, the timewise correction can last for a maximum of 6-7 quarters. The brokerage house sees signs of exhaustion noting that the markets remain 'highly overbought' on a long-term time frame.
Mihir Vora on why a broad-based rally is unlikely; to go for multi-year themes when fund opens for inflows
Mihir Vora expects optimistic GDP growth but warns of possible market stagnation. Global market volatility, uncertain events like the election and earning season, and the need for a broad-based recovery raise concerns. Right now, he is being more stock specific, rather than taking big macro calls. as it is one of the toughest environments for taking macro calls. Stock picking in domestic sectors and careful selection based on valuation is recommended.
Oil prices roughly flat as unclear demand scenario weighed
Oil prices meandered on Friday as investors pondered slowing demand forecast by an influential group and weak U.S. retail sales data that sparked optimism about U.S. interest rate cuts.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: 2024 outlook! Flexicap and largecap funds offer a balanced approach in current scenario: Rajesh Bhatia
"While the debate is around whether we are at the late stages of a valuation cycle and investor optimism, it is equally important to know that we are at an early stage of an economic cycle. So, while valuations can possibly correct, the earnings trajectory is expected to march on for the next few years and will provide a downside buffer to markets."
RBI Governor not creating any space for a rate cut soon: Abheek Barua
Contrary to expectations, the RBI policy did not allow for a rate cut or explicit liquidity measures. The Governor presented a Goldilocks scenario, assuring the bond market of government spending and comfortable liquidity. However, the growth and inflation combination does not leave room for a rate cut in the near future.
Business levers sound, cost scenario looking steady: Rakesh Sharma, Bajaj Auto
The business levers are seeming pretty sound and unless there is an external black swan-like event or this whole Middle East thing, conflagration spins out of control or post election there is some issues, other than that I would say slight headwinds on cost particularly on certain types of metals but otherwise the cost scenario is looking pretty steady.
Markets in a fairy tale scenario; US tech space is close to a bubble: Vincent Mortier, Amundi
Vincent Mortier, Group CIO of Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates in June, not March, due to the softening economy and the need to support the US economy in an election year. Mortier also believes that the market is not prepared for this and there will be a repricing of stocks when investors realize that earnings will not grow as expected.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: 2023 is ending with an almost Goldilocks scenario for India vs world: Mihir Vora
"I am bullish on both Indian equities and the Indian bond market. Pharmaceuticals and healthcare is a sector where we are incrementally turning bullish. Consumption, especially in the lower end has not picked up satisfactorily yet and stocks have underperformed due to this. If this picks up then there could be interesting plays in FMCG, auto (2-wheelers), etc."
Market likely to top out by February and then go flat till election results are out: Ajay Bagga
“This market will top out by February as soon as the last Budget is done with and elections are announced. Then two-three months of volatility as the new government gets formed and during that time, investors will be skittish and new money will wait out those two-three months. Then comes June and we should resume.”
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