MONTHLY EXPENDITURE
ETMarkets Smart Talk: India's economy poised for strong growth in second half of 2024, market outlook cautious: Vipul Bhowar
India's economy is expected to experience strong growth in the second half of 2024. This growth will be fuelled by robust public investment and resilient private consumption, supported by strong domestic factors, decreasing inflation, and favourable fiscal and monetary policies.
Can Modi government stick to interim numbers in upcoming Budget 2024? Here's what Sitharaman had to say
UNION BUDGET: Before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had indicated that the BJP-led NDA government would adhere to the fiscal measures outlined in the Interim Budget, emphasizing fiscal prudence and continued capital expenditure. Re-elected for a third term, the Modi government’s budgetary focus includes a significant boost to infrastructure and renewable energy initiatives.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: There might be a renewed focus on social expenditure in final Budget 2024: Arun Kumar Poddar
While we strive to reduce our reliance on FIIs, our Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions are reaching record highs, reflecting growing confidence in the Indian markets.
India Ratings pegs bank credit growth at 15.4% for FY25
India Ratings has forecasted a 15.4% loan growth for banks in FY25. The rating agency believes a turnaround in private capital expenditure could alleviate any pressure on overall credit growth during the fiscal year.
Fiscal deficit hits 3% of full FY25 target in April-May at Rs 50,615 crore
India's fiscal deficit for April-May reached approximately 3% of FY25's target, totaling Rs 50,615 crore. PM Narendra Modi's third term priorities include tackling agricultural distress, job creation, sustaining capital expenditure, and enhancing revenue growth for fiscal consolidation. S&P upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive, contingent on fiscal discipline
Dow closes at a one-month high as investors broaden portfolios
The Dow reached a one-month high, but the Nasdaq fell over 1% as investors shifted from AI-linked stocks. Federal Reserve rate cuts were anticipated, impacting market movements.
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China's fiscal revenue drops 2.8% in January-May
China's fiscal revenue declined by 2.8% in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, reflecting a deepening economic slowdown. Weak demand continued to weigh on the recovery, with fiscal expenditure rising by 3.4% during the same period. In May alone, fiscal revenue was down by 3.2% year-on-year, while fiscal spending grew by 2.6%. China has pledged greater fiscal stimulus to support its economy, including the issuance of special treasury bonds and incentives to boost consumer spending.
Market Moves: Ashi Anand’s take on Indian IT and auto sectors
Ashi Anand, Founder and CEO of IME Capital, provides an in-depth analysis of the Indian IT and auto sectors. Anand highlighted the persistent strength in deal wins across IT companies despite weaker-than-expected revenue growth, attributing this to reduced discretionary spending.
Govt mulls more frequent job data surveys
India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is considering increasing the frequency of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) from quarterly urban unemployment data to monthly, and shifting the release of rural employment data from annual to quarterly. Officials are also discussing revising the base year for gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation. These efforts aim to leverage technology to enhance efficiency and reduce data lag, ensuring compliance with international standards.
Road construction down by 12.1% to 1288 km in the current financial year up to May 2024
As per the monthly update, released the ministry of road transport and highways (MoRTH) on Wednesday, the capital expenditure incurred during the period stood at Rs 57,925 crore till May 2024, which is 42.5% of the capital outlay under the vote on account provision for the first five months of 2024- 25.
What does Nigel Farage promise in his ‘contract’? Is it economically feasible?
The Reform UK Party promises to end all non-essential immigration and proposes steep cuts in personal income tax rates and other direct taxes. He is not expected to win the upcoming parliamentary elections in July.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Agri, consumer durable & insurance could be dark horse of FY25: Kush Gupta
Elections in the past have always led to sharp movements pre and post-event, but history has shown that the markets finally stabilize one to six months post-event.
Modi 3.0: Growth sequel starring jobs, investment
The full budget, likely to be presented early in July, will detail specific measures toward this end. "The focus would be to promote labour-intensive growth that will create jobs, with continued emphasis on macroeconomic stability," a top government official aware of the details told ET. A host of measures on startups and taxation - including inverted duty structure correction, along with GST rate rationalisation - is under discussion, said the person cited above.
Better ForeCaste: Gap in consumption shrinks; spending by SC, ST, OBCs rose 1% faster each yr
Consumption spending in marginalized groups like Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes has seen a faster annual growth rate of 9.2% between 2011-12 and 2022-23, indicating a decline in consumption inequity between upper and lower castes in India. The monthly per capita consumption of these groups nearly tripled in rural areas.
Consumption inequality down in a decade
The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) results revealed a decline in consumption inequality over the last decade in India. The share of the top 10% households in consumption decreased by 1.9% in rural areas and 4% in urban areas. The Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality, showed a decline between 2011-12 and 2022-23, indicating a positive trend in income distribution.
At 5.6% of GDP, FY24 fiscal gap beats target
In absolute terms, the FY24 fiscal deficit stood at ?16.54 lakh crore, down from the revised estimate of ?17.35 lakh crore and FY23 level of ?17.38 lakh crore, showed the official data released on Friday. A lower-than-anticipated deficit in FY24 and a generous surplus transfer by RBI earlier this month make the government's goal of reining in fiscal gap at 5.1% of GDP in FY25 seem more realistic now, experts said.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
Asia stocks gain, dollar drifts as inflation tests await
Asian stocks rose for the fourth month, while the dollar drifted lower. Investors await inflation readings from Europe and the U.S. for interest rate guidance.
India's growth set to get more broad-based, says Morgan Stanley; pegs 6.8% for 2024
India's strong growth, driven by consumer and business spending, is expected to become more broad-based, according to Morgan Stanley. The global investment bank forecasts 6.8% growth in 2024, attributing it to global offshoring, digitalization, and energy transition. Retail inflation is at 4.83%, within RBI's comfort zone. S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on India to positive, citing robust economic growth and fiscal policies.
FY25 capital expenditure outlay may be hiked by 10%
India may increase FY25 capital expenditure by 8-10% from the ₹11.11 lakh crore vote on account allocation, boosted by better tax revenue and a record RBI surplus transfer. The full budget, awaited post-election results on June 4, could see a surge in spending, as per a senior official.
Nasdaq crosses 17,000 mark for first time ahead of inflation test
While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 celebrated their fifth consecutive week of gains, the Dow Jones took a different path on Friday. Healthcare stocks, led by an 8% plunge in Moderna, dragged down both the Dow and the broader S&P 500 sector. This divergence comes amidst ongoing market optimism fueled by speculation of potential interest rate cuts from the world's most influential central bank later this year. This optimism has propelled Wall Street to record-breaking highs since late 2023.
Sterling hits fresh 2-month high versus dollar ahead of inflation data
German inflation figures will be released on Wednesday and the wider euro zone's reading on Friday, along with the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.
ONGC's high investments to delay deleveraging: S&P
S&P Global Ratings stated that increased investments by Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) will slow its deleveraging over the next 12-24 months, affecting its 'bbb+' standalone credit profile. Despite a 2-3% drop in domestic production and lower realizations in FY2024, ONGC's EBITDA rose to Rs 1.1 lakh crore due to strong performance from subsidiaries MRPL and HPCL. S&P forecasts EBITDA to remain around Rs 1 lakh crore for FY2025 and FY2026, supported by increased production from the Krishna Godavari basin and international assets.
Telecom infrastructure sharing may spur gear sharing too, experts say
The current scenario could change with Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) recommending creating a separate category under the unified license for Digital Connectivity Infrastructure Provider (DCIP) authorisation. "...the proposed DCIP authorisation holder may create both active and passive digital connectivity infrastructure and share it with other TSPs and has to pay no license fee to the government," Trai said in its recommendations last month.
GDP likely expanded 6.8% in Q4; FY24 print may hit 7.8%
The strong March quarter print could lift overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the full fiscal year to 7.8% against 7.6% assessed in the government's first advance estimates released in February. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also forecast 7.8% growth for FY24. The government will release fourth-quarter growth numbers and provisional GDP data for FY24 on May 31.
'Pet parents, not owners': Indians make space for pet products in monthly expenditure
Millennials and Gen Z are reshaping India's economy, driving e-commerce, cafe spaces, convenience services, and the expanding pet care industry. The shift to 'pet parents' is fueling demand for quality pet products and services, including oral care and premium treats.
Vi mulls rolling out 5G on large scale in 6 months, plans up to Rs 55,000 cr investment in 3 yrs
Vi CEO Akshaya Moondra said the company's investment will focus on expanding and strengthening coverage in 17 priority circles to be competitive.
TB treatment is free. But are patients facing crippling costs?
Government policy is to provide free diagnosis and treatment to all registered TB cases. Yet patients pay ‘out-of-pocket’ for several other components such as consultation fees, non-TB drugs, other diagnostic tests, travel expenses in pre-treatment period etc
Here's why Anshul Saigal is bullish on manufacturing stocks
Now, we are in a phase today where we are close to, of course, election, markets have rallied before. So, clearly one has to be cautious but this is not a time to be sitting on cash because we really do not know what the event is going to throw up.
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