OIL WAR
Oil prices on track for fourth straight week of gains
Oil prices stabilized in Asian trade, set for a fourth week of gains amid strong U.S. summer demand and supply concerns. Brent and WTI prices rose. Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil to cut July exports. Saudi Aramco lowered Asian prices. Sentiment boosted by geopolitical tensions, a 12.2 million barrels draw, potential Fed rate cuts, and the Gaza conflict.
A tell-tale sign that China could be preparing for war
A notable parallel has been observed between Germany's pre-1939 invasion preparations and China's current actions, such as stockpiling resources. The focus on mineral hoarding signifies China's readiness for regional conflicts, echoing past wartime actions. Former US intelligence director Mike Studeman suggested this is part of Xi Jinping’s strategy to prepare for potential conflict.
Share of Russian oil in imports up at 42% in June, Iraq supplies fall
Indian imports of Russian crude surged in June, outpacing other major suppliers. Refiners find the discounts on Urals grade appealing, with private sector involvement rising.
Top fertiliser maker says ‘Black Swan’ jolts are finally easing
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine disrupted global fertiliser shipments and pushed prices — and Nutrien earnings — to record heights. But as farmers and retailers balked at the sticker shock, demand tumbled.
Oil prices edge higher as supply risks mount
Oil prices responded to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, with concerns over fuel demand dynamics. The market saw gains in Brent and WTI futures amidst heightened uncertainties, while attention remained on the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil supply. Anticipation of increased gasoline consumption over the July 4th weekend offered some relief amid persisting demand challenges.
Oil prices slide on fears of slow US demand after surprise inventory build
Oil prices dropped due to rising U.S. stockpiles, affecting market sentiment. Brent crude traded at $84.17, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $80.58 per barrel. Escalating conflicts in Gaza, notably in Rafah, contribute to market uncertainties amidst concerns over weakening demand.
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Norway starts stockpiling grain, citing pandemic, war and climate change
The Norwegian government signed a deal to stockpile 30,000 tons of grain as a precaution against crises like COVID-19, war, and climate change, aiming to have 82,500 tons by 2029 for three months' consumption. This decision follows recommendations after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Norway previously closing its grain storage sites in 2003. The country also hosts the Global Seed Vault in Svalbard to safeguard seeds worldwide.
Oil prices steady as markets weigh supply tensions, China economic recovery
Oil prices remained steady on Tuesday, balancing concerns over China's economic recovery, tensions in the Middle East, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
EU slaps fresh curbs on Russia gas shipments
The new restrictions on gas aim to reduce Russia's revenues from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by banning trans-shipments off EU ports and a clause allowing Sweden and Finland to cancel some LNG contracts. The measures stop short of an EU ban on LNG imports, which have risen since the start of the war.
India buys record amount of sunflower oil as Ukraine-Russia fight for market share cuts price
Indian buyers purchased a record 500,000 metric tons of sunflower oil in June due to competitive pricing against soyoil and palm oil from leading suppliers Russia and Ukraine. The war has lead to reduced inventories in the Black Sea region. The lower prices for sunflower oil were attributed to aggressive competition from Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina, with sunflower oil trading at a discount to soyoil and palm oil, prompting Indian buyers to pivot towards sunflower oil amidst robust demand in southern states.
Three dead in Kharkiv attack, Russia launches new barrage of missiles on Ukrainian energy facilities
Ukraine is struggling with a new wave of rolling blackouts after relentless Russian attacks on energy infrastructure that started three months ago took out half the country's power generation capacity. In its eighth major attack on energy facilities overnight, Russia fired 16 missiles and 13 Shahed drones, the Ukrainian air force said.
Brent rises on Middle East war jitters, while WTI dips ahead of inventories report
Brent crude futures rose as Israeli tanks advanced into Gaza, while U.S. crude dipped on the U.S. federal holiday of Juneteenth.
Oil hits seven-week high on demand hopes, war jitters
Oil prices hit seven-week highs on Wednesday as summer demand optimism and concerns over escalating conflicts offset an industry report that said U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose.
Oil inches up as war jitters outweigh surprise build in U.S. crude stocks
Oil prices rose on conflict fears in Europe and the Middle East, with unexpected U.S. crude inventory build. Concerns over escalating conflict and supply disruptions led to price increases in the oil market.
War, money, oil and the shaping of Aramco's giant share sale
A large chunk of this month's $11.2 billion share sale was allocated to foreign investors, leading one person involved in the process to describe it as the deal the IPO was supposed to be. Its success could create a template for future Aramco sell-downs, which now seem likely as the Crown Prince - who's known as MBS - seeks cash to help fund his multitrillion-dollar Vision 2030 economic transformation project.
China risks trade war on two fronts as low-tech exports soar, too
Rising trade tensions as the EU, US, and potentially Canada impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, are impacting global trade dynamics.
View: Central banks are moving over to the yellow metal to de-dollarise and tackle global uncertainty
Gold prices have surged to a record high of $2,400/oz, driven by uncertainty rather than demand. Central banks have significantly increased their gold holdings, with a notable shift towards ETF investments.
Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin hold talks in Beijing to discuss future strategic ties
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China to hold talks with China President Xi Jinping. The two leaders discussed about the Ukraine war and the increasing pressure on Beijing from the US and EU for supporting Russia. This is Putin's first foreign visit after being elected for the fifth term. Russia's large delegation, including five deputy prime ministers and other senior officials, is expected to discus trade and economic cooperation.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian fuel depot, officials say
A Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire and damaged storage tanks at a fuel depot in Russia's Krasnodar region. The attack destroyed about six drones, with debris falling on a nearby refinery. The region's crisis administration reported that several tanks were damaged, but no injuries were reported. Drone attacks on Russian energy facilities have increased recently, with Kyiv officials stating they aim to undermine Russia's war effort in response to Moscow's strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The depot was last attacked on May 2, according to Russian state media.
Host Saudi warns of economic fallout from Gaza war at global summit
Saudi Arabia urges regional stability amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, hosting a summit attended by mediators. Concerns about economic impact arise. Palestinian President urges US intervention. Saudi pushes its Vision 2030 amid challenges. The summit focuses on Gaza humanitarian situation and Iran. Saudi seeks global engagement despite regional tensions.
Expect banks to start rallying from June: Ajay Bagga
Market expert predicts growth in capital goods, infrastructure, and domestic cyclicals while cautioning about global cyclicals. FMCG sector set to benefit from monsoon. Banks may rally after July budget. Iran's supply chain control impacts oil markets.
Oil tests central banker nerves with Iran-Israel hostilities on ‘knife edge’
The strikes reported around targets in Isfahan prompted a jump of more than 4% in crude to above $90 a barrel, before erasing that gain to trade lower on the day as Iranian media seemed to downplay the incident. While central bankers won’t have lost sleep at the level it reached, the backdrop isn’t comforting.
India's big worry: Iran has its hand on a critical choke point
Israel Iran war: As tensions rise, India faces a precarious position due to its friendly ties with both nations and its heavy reliance on energy imports from the region, particularly through the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. The potential disruption of this critical oil transit chokepoint could have far-reaching consequences for global energy markets and India's economy.
Iran-Israel war: Do not panic sell and do not catch falling knife: Anurag Singh
Anurag Singh advises against panic selling in Indian markets, recommending holding cash due to uncertain valuations. He says Indian and all other emerging markets face a little bit of danger because whenever oil spikes, dollar flight happens. But, he says, market recovery is anticipated sooner with strong back channel talks despite geopolitical risks.
What’s next for oil? Analysts weigh in after Iran’s attack
Citigroup Inc.’s base case is for tensions to remain “extremely high” in the Middle East, underpinning prices. That’s prompted the bank to raise its short-term price forecasts, with the three-month target for West Texas Intermediate increased by $8 a barrel.
Iran-Israel war: Will Nifty bulls get trapped in crossfire and how it may impact investors?
One of the biggest impacts of the tensions in the Middle East could be on crude oil prices. Last week, oil prices neared a six-month high on concern that Iran, the third-largest OPEC producer, might retaliate for a suspected Israeli warplane attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus. After the fears came true on the weekend, analysts feared that crude oil prices, which had settled near the $90 a barrel mark on Friday, could cross the $100 level in the next few days.
Oil’s rise complicates global war on inflation
Rising oil prices pose inflation risks for India, with a $10/barrel hike potentially increasing consumer prices by 0.2-1.4%. Asian economies, especially net importers of crude, are sensitive to CPI and could face challenges.
Senior US treasury officials to urge India to maintain implementation of Russian oil price cap
Two US officials are coming to India to urge India to maintain the implementation of oil price cap. In 2023, Russia had emerged as India's top oil supplier. India has strong economic and defence ties with Russia and has refrained from criticising Moscow over its war with Ukraine.
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