POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY
JGB yields rise as global politics add to pressure from yen
Japanese bond yields surged on expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy amid a weak yen. Global concerns over French and U.S. elections drove yields higher. Mizuho Securities forecasts continued increase in bond yields with uncertainty surrounding BOJ's tightening plans and potential rate hike at the July meeting.
Euro rises to two-week high after France's far-right wins first-round vote
Amid market volatility, potential alliances to block the far-right have emerged in France's election. The RN party eyes a possible absolute majority, adding to ongoing uncertainty and investor concerns.
Xi says China planning 'major' reforms ahead of key political meeting
Chinese President Xi Jinping said Friday the ruling Communist Party was planning and implementing "major" reforms, ahead of a closely watched political conclave that is expected to put economic recovery high on the agenda. Xi said in a speech on Friday policymakers "are planning and implementing major measures to further deepen reform in a comprehensive manner".
European shares set for weekly losses
European shares slip amid French political uncertainty. Technology stocks rise, auto shares fall. Leftwing parties challenge National Rally, Crest Nicholson rejects Bellway's offer.
Companies cautious on short-term hiring, but overall outlook stays upbeat
Employers in India are showing caution in short-term hiring for the July-September quarter, with a net employment outlook of 30%, six percentage points lower than the current quarter and the same period last year. While 48% of employers plan to hire more people, 18% expect a decrease in hiring or have no plans to hire. The most optimistic sectors are finance and real estate, healthcare and life sciences, and IT, while communication services and transport, logistics, and automotive are less optimistic.
See policy continuity even with coalition government: Gokul Laroia, CEO, Morgan Stanley Asia
Morgan Stanley's Asia CEO Gokul Laroia discussed Indian elections, markets, and risks with Nishanth Vasudevan before an investor conference.
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How to play MF portfolio in Modi 3.0? Prefer largecap funds over mid & smallcap: Alekh Yadav
We believe that government support, coupled with a favorable monsoon, will lead to an increase in rural consumption, making it a theme we favor.
Asia shares stumble; political uncertainty grips euro
Asian stocks fell as traders reduced bets for Fed rate cuts due to a tight US labor market. A snap election in France raised political concerns, impacting the euro. MSCI's Asia-Pacific shares index also dropped.
Plan to invest Rs 10 lakh post election outcome; Kaustubh Belapurkar gives asset allocation strategy
Most investors are best served by investing into diversified equity funds, where fund managers will express their conviction on sector/themes stocks, with graded underweight/overweight calls.
We don't expect rate cut in 2024 unless growth or inflation surprises on downside: Tanvee Gupta Jain
I think the political outcome was suggesting that there is kind of a weak sentiment at the lower end of the income pyramid. And whether we accept it or not but India has seen a K-shaped consumption recovery post the pandemic. So, most of the high frequency data that we track are clearly indicating that affluent, premium segment demand in India has been doing well.
Will RBI start cutting interest rates from October? Dr Samiran Chakraborty answers
In Citi's house view, we think that the Fed rate cut will start early, so we have put our first RBI rate cut in October, to some extent also factoring that in that if Fed moves earlier, then RBI gets the scope to move as well.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: There will be political stability; healthcare could turn out to be the dark horse in FY25: Aditya Khemka
Global investors haven't got much choice but to remain invested in India and perhaps increase allocations despite the political uncertainty.
Expect market to consolidate for some time: Vikas Khemani
So, I guess the frothy valuation stocks will come down, corrections will happen. Markets might consolidate for some time and to some extent it is healthy. Also, probably we will have a strong opposition so we will have to see what kind of reforms government is able to carry out in further.
Adani stocks, overseas bonds battered by rout
Adani Group's offshore bonds dropped 1-2 points post Modi government's failure to secure a predicted victory as per exit polls.
Election cycles and stock market performance: Don’t ignore the long-term
National elections can create market anxiety due to policy uncertainties, impacting market and economy. Understanding election results' relation to equities market performance is crucial for investors' long-term outlook.
View: Central banks are moving over to the yellow metal to de-dollarise and tackle global uncertainty
Gold prices have surged to a record high of $2,400/oz, driven by uncertainty rather than demand. Central banks have significantly increased their gold holdings, with a notable shift towards ETF investments.
Navigating market volatility during elections: Insights & strategies for investors
Elections bring uncertainty with potential policy shifts like tax reforms, subsidies policies, and changes to capital gains tax. Market volatility can unsettle investors as they reevaluate positions based on political rhetoric and campaign promises.
Don’t read too much into market jitters, turnout
The logic of the 2024 verdict will inevitably be understood in hindsight. However, experience (and archival evidence) suggests that the magnitude of most electoral waves has escaped media comprehension. This includes the landmark elections of 1977, 1984 and 2014.
Indian equities traders seek cues from election shadow bets
Weeks before vote counting set for June 4, stock markets are closely tracking shadow-betting platforms that are flourishing nationwide, with wagers now suggesting the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a slimmer majority than expected.
Volatility has risen as Lok Sabha Elections 2024 fever grips the stock market; will polls halt the rally?
Volatility has risen in recent weeks as election fever grips the market. The heightened volatility stems from concerns over lower voter turnout in the ongoing general elections, potentially indicating an unfavourable verdict for the ruling party. Is this market nervousness a sign of future trends or a temporary blip before equities resume their upward journey?
FPIs withdraw Rs 17,000 crore from equities in May so far on political uncertainty
This was way higher than a net withdrawal of Rs 8,700 crore in the entire April on concerns over a tweak in India's tax treaty with Mauritius and a sustained rise in US bond yields
Inflation-wary Fed may put IT revival on hold
Indian outsourcing leaders face delayed business revival until FY26 due to US Federal Reserve's high interest rates. The impact on revenue growth and IT firms' strategies could persist, affecting deals and revenue projections in the sector.
Gold set for fifth weekly gain as geopolitical risks buoy demand
Federal Reserve policymakers have rallied around the idea of holding borrowing costs where they are until probably far into the year, given slow and lumpy progress on inflation and a still-strong U.S. economy.
Pak Supreme Court dismisses plea seeking annulment of Feb 8 general elections over allegations of rigging
Pakistan's Supreme Court dismissed a petition seeking new elections over alleged irregularities in the February 8 polls as a "publicity stunt" and imposed a fine on the petitioner, a former army officer. The petitioner, retired Brigadier Ali Khan, urged the court to order new elections within 30 days to ensure fairness, transparency, and accountability. However, the petitioner failed to attend two consecutive hearings and was fined Pakistani Rs 500,000.
Uncertainty ahead for Pakistan after indecisive election
Pakistan's post-election scenario brims with uncertainty as legal challenges, coalition negotiations, and potential protests unfold. Imran Khan's PTI, largely represented by independent candidates due to a crackdown, emerges victorious, unsettling the PML-N. Despite PTI's claim of a "people's mandate," forming a government remains complex. Legal battles over results, potential alliances, and economic challenges loom, underscoring the nation's fragile political landscape and pressing economic woes.
BJP meeting underway in Bihar as political uncertainty continues
"We have come here to deliberate on the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The current situation in Bihar will also be taken up for discussion," state BJP president Samrat Choudhary told reporters ahead of the party meeting at its Veerchand Patel Marg office.
"Nitish Kumar has lost his credibility": Congress leader Acharya Pramod amid political uncertainty in Bihar
The reports of CM Nitish Kumar severing his ties with the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) and reuniting with the BJP have triggered concerns about the stability of the 17-month-old, six-party Grand Alliance government. Several NDA leaders including former Bihar CM Jitan Ram Manjhi have indicated an alliance breakdown between JD(U)-RJD.
Uncertainty returns in Bihar as Nitish Kumar again 'weighs options'
In an apparent response to chief minister Nitish Kumar's broadside a day earlier that like Karpoori Thakur he too did not promote dynastic politics, RJD president Lalu Prasad's daughter Rohini Acharya in a post on X said on Thursday that those who frequently switched ideologies were turning into mascots of socialist politics.
A $4-trillion economy is a certainty this year: PM's Economic Advisory Council chairman Bibek Debroy
Notwithstanding whatever is happening around the globe, which affects net exports as a growth driver, there is sufficient endogenous momentum. Economic data are normally for fiscal year, not calendar year. Adjusted for calendar year 2024, it is certain India is headed for 7% real growth.
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