PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
Private consumption seen growing, concerns on capex growth: Morgan Stanley Research
Consumption growth has remained weak since the pandemic, recovering at a slow pace. Private consumption is recovering, with growth is tracking at 4% in the quarter ended March 31, 2024 as against 1.5% a year ago but it is just catching up to the pre-pandemic trend and remains below the pre-pandemic average of 6.3% in 2019.
This fund manager thinks it is the right time to bet on consumption theme. Here’s why
The common theme is these are all branded goods and services that consumers are either consuming today or want to consume. So, in a way, this is a heterogeneous thematic, which allows for that opportunity for picking and managing between different sub-segments, as well as diversification, says Nippon India MF's Amar Kalkundrikar.
Real rate of interest at 1.5 pc apt for economy: Shashanka Bhide
Shashanka Bhide, an external member of the rate-setting panel, suggests a real interest rate of 1.5% for India, closely tied to achieving the Monetary Policy Committee's 4% inflation target. He emphasizes the importance of favorable macroeconomic conditions for high economic growth.
Growth, consumption to investment-led
The investment upcycle is now being powered by both public and private sectors. There is also a revival in manufacturing exports that adds to the tailwind. The economy is now adjusting from consumption- to investment-led growth. And all of it is not cyclical. Some of the demand shift may be permanent. This opens up prospects of India achieving materially more of its growth potential.
World Bank revises India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.6%
The World Bank revised India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.4%, expecting India to remain the fastest growing economy, driven by public and private investment, and rising consumption.
Harsh Gupta Madhusudan on key indicators to monitor ahead of Budget
I think that there should be some more not exactly freebies or welfare, but something more attuned towards consumption and we were already seeing that even in the financial markets. I gave you the number of top line, the most obvious data point to check directly FMCG sales.
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Govt may increase emphasis on consumption and job creation: Pramod Gubbi
So, we went into the elections quite strongly positioned for a potential adverse event. But it was not because we expected any adverse event. It is just our style of investing. So, to that extent, there has been almost next to nothing in terms of changes that we have made pre or post elections.
FPIs stay bullish on growth stocks, cut defensive bets a bit
Foreign portfolio investors have been selling Indian shares ahead of the elections, focusing on growth stocks over defensive ones. Data from NSDL shows a decline in FMCG and IT sector weightage in FPIs' equity folio.
RBI MPC Highlights: Das & co keep rates unchanged, but dovish clamour grows
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate steady at 6.50% for the eighth consecutive meeting. However, a new shift emerged with Ashima Goyal joining Jayanth Varma in voting for a rate cut. The committee continues to prioritize inflation control and forecasts 7.2% GDP growth for FY25, supported by expected robust monsoons and a revival in private consumption.
View: GOI has the solution of India's economic puzzle but it needs to let go fiscal hesitations
India's economy is thriving with 8.2% GDP growth, strong public investment, and tax revenues. However, weak consumer demand and private capex remain issues. To boost growth, the government should create more public sector jobs, increasing incomes and consumption, funded by local savings.
Rural consumption and exports should do well in next 5 years: Ravi Dharamshi
Honestly if you want to make money from a five years perspective, go where nobody is looking and consumption which includes discretionary as well as non-discretionary consumption and rural consumption and exports are two areas which I think should continue to do well.
View: Whichever way you cut it, the economy’s booming and is a welcome gift for the incoming government
The Indian economy is booming with a GDP growth of 8.2% for 2023-24, surpassing estimates. The National Statistics Office data highlights this growth despite challenges in sectors like manufacturing and agriculture.
Economy expands 7.8% in Q4, lifting FY24 growth to 8.2%
This is the highest annual growth since FY17, excluding the 9.7% post-Covid rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY22 after the 5.8% contraction in FY21. The advance estimate released in February had pegged FY24 growth at 7.6%. Economists and government expect the high growth to continue though tepid private consumption remains a concern.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
India's GDP grows 7.8 per cent in Q4, FY24 growth pegged at 8.2 per cent
India Q4 GDP: The analysts were anticipating a better-than-expected growth for the January to March quarter this time around. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimated Q4FY24 real GDP growth to be 7 per cent while ET Poll suggested the growth rate of 6.8 per cent. As per a Reuters poll, the Indian economy was expected to grow at 6.7 per cent in the January-March quarter on a year-on-year basis, owing to weak demand.
India's growth outlook: Economy to get a blockbuster release this Friday? But that's too late to stream in poll campaigns
GDP Q4: As the country buzzes with election excitement, India is set to release its GDP growth numbers for the fourth quarter of FY24 this Friday, alongside the full fiscal year figures. Analysts are eagerly awaiting to see if the January to March quarter numbers surpass expectations, fueling hopes of a surprising uptick in growth.
Dalal St is likely pricing in a Modi 3.0 but election winners already have a bitter household burden
India's stock market hit an all-time high last week, as investors anticipate a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi will boost corporate profits. However, consumer debt poses a significant risk. Slow wage growth, high interest rates, and heavy borrowing have strained spending for over 300 million families. Despite this, investors expect post-election growth in private capital expenditure and infrastructure projects
India’s economic momentum to remain strong post-election: S&P Global Market Intelligence
India's post-election economic momentum is expected to be driven by capital spending, private consumption, and investment. S&P Global Market Intelligence highlights strategic sectors like renewables, electronics, and logistics. Inflation is projected to ease, and if the NDA secures a two-thirds majority, the focus will be on economic growth and fiscal deficit reduction. Technology integration and social welfare are key considerations depending on the election outcome.
Indian economy likely grew at weakest pace in a year in Jan-March, says Reuters poll
India's economy likely experienced its slowest growth in a year during the January-March quarter, attributed to weak domestic demand, according to a Reuters poll of economists. This follows a surprising 8.4% GDP growth in the October-December quarter, boosted by a sharp drop in subsidies that artificially increased net indirect taxes, while gross value added (GVA) grew by 6.5%. For the January-March period, GDP growth is expected to have slowed to 6.7%, with GVA growth at 6.2%.
GDP likely expanded 6.8% in Q4; FY24 print may hit 7.8%
The strong March quarter print could lift overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the full fiscal year to 7.8% against 7.6% assessed in the government's first advance estimates released in February. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also forecast 7.8% growth for FY24. The government will release fourth-quarter growth numbers and provisional GDP data for FY24 on May 31.
Household savings likely revived in FY24: Crisil
Household savings in India likely saw a recovery in FY24, rebounding from a low in FY23, driven by increased deposit growth, investments in markets and real estate, and subdued consumption, according to Crisil. Bank deposits grew 13.5%, mutual fund investments rose, and domestic savings financed rising investments.
Strong growth likely in FY25; pvt investment picking up, says Sanjay Nayar
In an interview to ET, Nayar called on the government to maintain its capital expenditure push for some more time to "crowd in" private investment. Rural consumption has started to see an uptick, on top of the already strong urban demand, he said. Capacity utilisation has gone up to 75% or so, which indicates companies would go for fresh capacity expansion.
Pvt sector capex likely to expand amid expectations of high growth: Experts
CII's business confidence index touched a 12-quarter high in Q4FY24, with 51% of firms expecting capacity utilisation of 75% and above. Moreover, 71% expect an improvement in private capex in the first half of FY25 compared with the second half of FY24.
Managing the trilemma of inflation, growth and exchange rate
For many other Asian economies, domestic economic conditions warrant a cut in interest rates, but fears of currency depreciation could hold their central banks back. If private investment and consumption are the next growth engines, will lower interest rates help?
Hills are alive with the sound of FMCG
Rural market drives FMCG growth, aided by normal monsoon and producer pricing. Big players benefit from input cost spikes. Motorcycle sales rise with rural demand, while small car sales lag. Rural consumption revival crucial for India's economic recovery.
Share of consumer spend on health, transport, eduction up by record 26.9%
India's private consumption patterns have seen a shift in the last fiscal year, with transport, health, and education contributing to 26.9% of total expenditure. This is the highest level since the new series in FY12. Vehicle purchases reached an 11-year high in FY23, with transport accounting for 17.3% of private consumption. Services have been accounting for a larger share of consumption as the country moves to higher per capita income.
Ind-Ra raises India's FY25 GDP growth estimate to 7.1 pc: Strong government-private investment propel economic momentum
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has revised India's GDP growth estimate for FY25 upwards to 7.1 per cent, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7.0 per cent. The agency's outlook is supported by government capital expenditure and a revival in private sector investment. Challenges include uneven consumption demand and export sector obstacles. Despite positive indicators, constraints remain, such as high inflation and geopolitical uncertainties affecting exports.
India's cash withdrawals from ATMs increase by 5.51% in FY24, CMS Infosystems report shows
A report by CMS Infosystems shows a 5.51% increase in monthly average cash withdrawals from ATMs in FY24, reaching Rs 1.43 crore. This growth highlights the continued reliance on cash transactions despite the rise of digital payments. Metro areas saw a significant 10.37% increase in cash withdrawals, while Karnataka led in withdrawals per ATM. The report also notes a rise in spending on media, entertainment, and FMCGs, indicating a positive trend in consumption.
ETMarkets Fund Manager Talk: Private banks, FMCG may lag behind in FY25 earnings, says Karthick Jonagadla
Karthick Jonagadla foresees challenges for private banks and FMCG sectors. FY25 market returns may moderate with high performers in specific sectors. Earnings growth alignment for midcap and smallcap stocks, capital inflows shift, and sector opportunities in lower interest rates are key considerations. Jinagadka also says: "PSUs, defence manufacturing, and rural consumption themes not only highlight the diverse avenues available for investors but also reflects the multifaceted nature of India’s growth trajectory."
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