US ECONOMY
Gold inches up after weak data fuels US rate cut bets
Dramatic gold price surge expected amid cautious Fed approach and weaker employment reports, signaling potential economic challenges ahead.
Dollar on the defensive after soft data, little relief for yen
Currency markets react to global economic trends, with sterling potentially shifting leadership from Rishi Sunak to Keir Starmer in the UK.
Oil prices slip after data points to cooling U.S. economy
Amidst economic fluctuations, rate cuts could enhance demand, endorsed by ANZ Research analysts, impacting the global oil market.
Federal Reserve minutes: Inflation is cooling, but more evidence is needed for rate cuts
The minutes of the Fed’s June 11-12 meeting, released Wednesday, showed that the policymakers saw several factors that could further ease inflation in the coming months. These factors included the slower growth of wages, which reduces pressure on companies to raise prices to cover their labor costs.
Recession looming large on US economy? What growth rate has been predicted by Fed Reserve body? Everything you may like to know
Recessions are fairly common in the US economy. There has been about one U.S. recession every five years or so since World War 2. But they don't last long. The average duration of a U.S. recession since World War II is just 11.1 months.
US trade deficit widens in May on weak exports
The U.S. trade deficit widened for a second consecutive month in May, reaching $75.1 billion as exports decreased, potentially impacting economic growth in the second quarter; the goods trade deficit also rose to $100.2 billion, the highest since May 2022, with a 0.9 per cent increase, while services exports saw a boost from travel, helping offset declines in automotive and goods exports.
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US job openings rise to 8.1 million despite higher interest rates
U.S. job openings increased slightly to 8.1 million in May, despite higher interest rates aimed at cooling the labor market, as reported by the Labor Department. Layoffs rose slightly, while the number of Americans quitting their jobs remained stable. The economy and job market have shown resilience despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to raise rates. Job openings have decreased since a peak in March 2022, signaling a possible slowdown in the economy.
Charting the global economy: Inflation ebbs in US, France, Spain
With inflation settling down in many European economies, there are signs that central banks in the areas could reduce interest rates.
US inflation cools in May; consumer spending rises moderately
ART HOGAN from B RILEY WEALTH notes the stable 2.6% core PCE, potentially leading to Fed rate cuts. The overall economic indicators suggest a favorable environment for equities, with ongoing downward trends in treasury yields.
US, Japan, South Korea vow strategic cooperation to boost security, economies
Commerce and trade ministers from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea agreed to cooperate on AI safety, export controls, clean energy, and semiconductor supply chains. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo emphasized the importance of collaboration for global security. Japanese Minister Ken Saito and South Korean Minister Ahn Duk-geun also attended the inaugural meeting, initiated at a Camp David summit. The ministers aim to strengthen supply chain resilience, particularly in semiconductors and critical minerals, and enhance cooperation in cybersecurity and technical standards to counter China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains.
Debt ceiling standoff could trigger US rating downgrade, TD's Goldberg says
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, warns of a potential severe debt ceiling standoff in the U.S. in 2025, similar to the 2011 crisis, which could lead to another sovereign credit rating downgrade. Despite Congress suspending the debt ceiling until 2025, concerns over rising U.S. debt persist following forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office of significant deficits for fiscal years 2024 and 2025.
Goldman Sachs boosts S&P 500 target on upbeat profit outlook
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600, reflecting optimism for earnings growth and the US economy.
5 world market themes for the week ahead
Central bank decisions in Britain, Switzerland, and Norway will show the rate cutting trend, while retail sales data from the US and China will indicate consumer health. Europe gears up for the Euros 2024 tournament in Germany. Investors are monitoring cocoa supply issues in Ivory Coast, Ghana, and other countries like Brazil.
With strong job growth, rate cuts by US Fed before polls unlikely: Jefferies
With the US economy having created far more jobs than expected in May and consumer inflation in the country still looming above a comfortable range, its central bank Federal Reserve is unlikely to tinker with policy rates ahead of the much-awaited Presidential election scheduled later this year.
World Bank upgrades global growth outlook on resilient US economy
The World Bank raised its global growth outlook due to resilient consumer spending in the US, but warned of weak growth by historical standards.
India, the US and 12 other nations sign Indo-Pacific region economic pact
The US and 13 nations in Asia signed agreements on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, part of Biden's strategy to counter China's influence. The pact includes major economies like Japan, India, and South Korea, focusing on renewable energy, climate change, taxation, corruption, and supply-chain management.
Asia shares stumble; political uncertainty grips euro
Asian stocks fell as traders reduced bets for Fed rate cuts due to a tight US labor market. A snap election in France raised political concerns, impacting the euro. MSCI's Asia-Pacific shares index also dropped.
Charting the Global Economy: ECB cuts rates, US payrolls surge
The collapse of Modi’s support in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most-populous state and a one-time party stronghold, amounted to a collective rebellion from millions of people left behind in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
JPMorgan, Citi scrap Fed rate-cut bets for July after jobs data
JPMorgan's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, stated in a report on Friday that "the recent momentum in job growth" indicates that the "broader" labor-market weakening, which the Fed mentioned could justify a rate cut, might take more than three months to materialize.
US stocks close slightly lower; jobs data strong but rates still high
Wall Street stocks ended slightly lower on Friday after strong U.S. jobs data raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. The Labor Department reported 272,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, with a 4% unemployment rate.
ECB jumps ahead of Fed, cuts interest rate by 25 bps for first time since 2019
ECB raises inflation forecast for 2024, 2025. Analysts say the quarter-point cut on Thursday would likely not usher in a swift series of further cuts as the bank waits to make sure inflation is under control while easing credit to help the economy. While inflation at an annual rate of 2.6% in May is well down from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022, the decline has slowed in recent months and inflation even ticked up slighly from 2.4% in April.
Fundamental tailwinds are a stronger play than volatile markets? 5 Indian pharma stocks with upside potential of up to 31 %
There is no doubt that the market is going through a volatile phase and bears are once again telling the street to never write them off. Will this correction continue even longer ? It would probably be clear by the end of the day as the election result finally gets settled. Instead of focusing on how much nifty or bank nifty or any other index is down or up, focus on the fact that whether the sector or company is doing well and will it do well in future because the fundamental operating matrix of that sector has changed for better. Because volatile phases come and go, changes in the operating matrix don't happen every day. Pharmaceutical is one sector where there is a fundamental change taking place and it has happened after 8 to 10 years of restructuring and painful readjustment. So, it would be worthwhile to have them on watchlist and if the market remains volatile then it is a sector which probably has a higher probability of outperforming.
General elections 2024: A weaker mandate to impel policy reset
The underwhelming election results reflect voters' focus on economic and livelihood issues over free-food distribution. The need for productive employment is becoming a dominant necessity in policy considerations.
US stocks slip in choppy trading after weaker jobs data
Oil companies Exxon Mobil and Chevron dropped 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively, as demand concerns weighed on crude prices. Energy stocks led S&P 500 sectoral declines with 1.5% fall. Small-cap stocks, typically more sensitive to economic expectations, declined 1.2%, while the rate-sensitive real estate sector gained 0.9%.
FPIs take out Rs 25,586 cr from equities in May on poll jitters, attractive valuations in China
GDP growth numbers released on Friday painted a very optimistic picture. Q4FY24 GDP growth came in at 7.8 per cent surpassing the 6.7 per cent expectation, while the full-year FY24 growth stood at 8.2 per cent
They just happen to be listed in India, what matters to them is global developments: 5 stocks from two sectors with upside scope of up to 29%
In the last month of volatility, there are some sectors which have shown a streak of out performance. They haven't fallen as much as nifty and have been able to keep their head above the water even on the worst of days. The reason, their bottom lines are more correlated to what is happening in the country or the continent in which they have exposure both in terms of sales and in some cases in manufacturing. So, one way to take global exposure is to have a look at these companies, also it is a sort of diversification in terms of exposure to the underlying economy. Because they are operating at a global level, their balance sheets are good and in some cases, they have been able to enter amongst the top companies of the world in their sector.
Dow slides 1% as bond market pressure eases after cooler economic data
The S&P 500 traded 0.2% lower and the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.3%. Yields fell on Thursday after a couple of reports showed the U.S. economy isn’t quite as strong as expected. The hope on Wall Street is that the economy can cool down, but not too much so that the Federal Reserve can hit a precise landing where it gets high inflation under control without causing a bad recession.
US stocks rebound to close higher but Dow down for the week
U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday with the Nasdaq reaching a record high, driven by improved consumer outlook on inflation. New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods rebounded in April, and consumer inflation expectations improved. Rob Haworth from U.S. Bank Wealth Management commented on the positive data.
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