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InfluenceMap has assessed a 7th March joint letter sent by oil and gas industry associations advocating for fossil gas and LNG development to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on its accuracy using findings and analysis from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), International Energy Agency (IEA), and InfluenceMap ‘LobbyMap’ database, ahead of the upcoming G7 Summit in May 2023. The association signatories include American Petroleum Institute (API), Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA), Eurogas, International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (IOGP), International Gas Union, and the US Chamber of Commerce
The assessment has been produced as a means to tackle the spread of climate disinformation, an issue undermining climate action according to the IPCC. From the main paragraphs of the industry association letter, InfluenceMap has identified 4 claims that appear misleading or inaccurate regarding either the need of fossil gas in the future energy mix (compared against IPCC/IEA science-based policy benchmarks used by this analysis) or the industry’s efforts on climate, and 2 claims that appears partially accurate.
Key | ||
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Accuracy Code | Symbol | Explanation |
Accurate | Claim appears to be aligned with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recommendations from the International Energy Agency, and/or accurately describes the entities’ engagement with climate. | |
Partial or Mixed Accuracy | Claim appears to be partially aligned with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recommendations from the International Energy Agency, and/or describes the entities’ engagement with climate with mixed or partial accuracy. | |
Misleading or Inaccurate | Claim appears to be misaligned with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recommendations from the International Energy Agency, and/or inaccurately describes the entities’ engagement with climate. | |
Unclear / No conclusion yet | Unclear if the claim is aligned with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recommendations from the International Energy Agency. |
Claims identified in industry association letter | InfluenceMap Accuracy Assessment |
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Fossil gas is needed for energy security. | |
Continued development of fossil gas is integral for the energy transition. | |
Industry is supportive of international climate objectives. | |
Industry is supportive of government efforts to reduce methane emissions. | |
Industry is supportive of low-carbon technologies. | |
There is a need for greater investment into fossil gas projects and infrastructure. |
Japan is due to host the 49th G7 Summit in Hiroshima in May 2023, inviting political leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union to discuss important challenges facing the international community. Among key topics being discussed, energy security is set to remain an important subject light of the consequential impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Japanese government has also been reportedly advocating for G7 members to endorse new fossil gas production as part of the discussions.
On the 7th March, six major oil and gas sector industry associations including American Petroleum Institute (API), Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA), Eurogas, International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (IOGP), International Gas Union, and the US Chamber of Commerce sent a joint letter to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to advocate for new investments in LNG infrastructure and emphasize the role of unabated fossil gas.
InfluenceMap’s world leading LobbyMap platform assesses corporate climate policy engagement against Paris-aligned policy using science-based benchmarks based on the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to measure the extent to which the companies are supporting or opposing legislation and regulations aimed at delivering the Paris Agreement’s goals. An overview of the LobbyMap methodology can be found in detail online.
InfluenceMap’s assessments show that none of the industry association signatories are advocating in favor of climate policies in alignment with the goals of the Paris Agreement. API, IOGP, and the US Chamber of Commerce are found to be actively oppositional to climate policies.
Industry Association | Performance Band | Notable Members |
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![]() | F | BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell |
![]() | K.A. | Chevron, ExxonMobil, JERA, Santos |
![]() | C - | BASF (Wintershall Dea), Equinor, Eni, Shell, TotalEnergies |
![]() | D - | BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies |
![]() | C - | BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, Woodside |
![]() | E - | Apple, Amazon, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Meta (formerly Facebook), Shell, TotalEnergies |
InfluenceMap has prepared an accuracy assessment to tackle the spread of climate disinformation by oil and gas industry actors. The method for this assessment is detailed in Table 4. Table 5 compares claims made by the industry association joint letter to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida against scientific and expert findings from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) (from which InfluenceMap constructs Science-Based Policy benchmarks), and details lobbying data captured by InfluenceMap.
Key | |
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Accuracy Code | Explanation |
Accurate | Claim appears to be aligned with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recommendations from the International Energy Agency, and/or accurately describes the entities’ engagement with climate. |
Partial or Mixed Accuracy | Claim appears to be partially aligned with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recommendations from the International Energy Agency, and/or describes the entities’ engagement with climate with mixed or partial accuracy. |
Misleading or Inaccurate | Claim appears to be misaligned with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recommendations from the International Energy Agency, and/or inaccurately describes the entities’ engagement with climate. |
Unclear / No conclusion yet | Unclear if the claim is aligned with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and recommendations from the International Energy Agency. |
Statement | Claims Identified | Comparison with Independent Scientific Findings (IPCC / IEA) | InfluenceMap Fact Check on Industry Climate Policy Engagement |
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“Today on the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Texas, senior executives of our organizations met with representatives of G7 nations to discuss the unique and vital role of natural gas in meeting shared energy security and climate objectives. Industry leaders encouraged participating officials, led by Mr. Takeshi Soda of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, to affirm the crucial contributions of natural gas to global energy security at the upcoming G7 energy ministerial as well as the G7 Summit in Hiroshima this May. In addition to immeasurable security benefits, continued development of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets is necessary to stabilize volatile global energy markets and complement the expansion of renewable energy while accelerating the phase-out of coal-fired power generation.” | Fossil gas is needed for energy security | Role of fossil gas: Energy Security (Partially Aligned)
The IEA’s 2022 World Energy Outlook states that immediate shortfalls in fossil fuel production from Russia will need to be replaced by production elsewhere – even in a world working towards net zero emissions by 2050, with suitable projects being ones with short lead times and the ability to capture and utilize methane emissions. The IEA then states that long term solutions must focus on reducing demand for fossil fuels, with greater emphasis on action and investments in the clean energy transition. Role of fossil gas: Energy Transition (Misaligned) While finding the need to accelerate the phase-out of coal, the IPCC’s April 2022 Report on Mitigation of Climate Change states “purely fossil fuel to fossil fuel switching is a limited and potentially dangerous strategy unless it is used very carefully and a limited way”. Despite the letter acknowledging the need to expand renewable energy, the calls for continued developments in fossil gas and LNG appear contrary to role of gas in IPCC 1.5°C aligned pathways. | Industry Efforts on Climate: Energy Security
InfluenceMap's May 2022 The US Oil/Gas Industry and the War in Ukraine demonstrated the certain actors in the US oil and gas industry spread disinformation on the causes of high gas prices (blaming climate policies), and used this to advocate for the expansion of fossil gas and LNG projects. It is noted that IEA’s World Energy Outlook also talks about the “scant evidence” for the claim that climate policies and net zero commitments were responsible for rising energy prices. |
Continued development of fossil gas is integral for the energy transition | |||
In addition to affirming the key role of LNG, our industry is committed to ensuring natural gas projects are aligned with international climate objectives. In particular, we support the global effort to reduce methane emissions and are eager to partner with governments around the world on the important technical and policy work necessary to advance international methane reduction initiatives. | Industry is supportive of international climate objectives | Role of fossil gas: Methane emissions (Aligned)
In its latest April 2022 report, the IPCC indicates that to limit global warming to 1.5°C and meet the Paris Agreement objectives, methane emissions would need to be reduced by around 33% by 2030, and 50% by 2050. | Industry Efforts on Climate: Alignment with international climate objectives (Misleading/Inaccurate)
InfluenceMap’s ‘LobbyMap’ database shows API, US Chamber of Commerce, and IOGP to be oppositional to the goals on the Paris Agreement in their policy engagement efforts, while Eurogas and International Gas Union are found to have engage climate policies with mixed positions to the goals of the Paris Agreement. ANGEA does not yet have an assessment grade in InfluenceMap’s database due to low engagement levels. Industry Efforts on Climate: Support for Methane Regulation (Misleading/Inaccurate) Despite top-line support for methane regulations from the industry associations, InfluenceMap's Methane Platform Policy Tracker identifies negative engagement from several industry association signatories to weaken key methane emissions regulation. This includes positions from Eurogas and the IOGP to weaken the EU Methane Regulation for the energy sector, and positions from the API and US Chamber of Commerce to weaken the US EPA 2022 Methane Regulations. |
Industry is supportive of government efforts to reduce methane emissions | |||
"Our members are also aggressively pursuing innovation and investment in technologies to measure and reduce methane emissions throughout the value chain, while also working to accelerate development of promising low-carbon technologies, including biomethane and renewable natural gas (RNG), CCUS, hydrogen, ammonia, and e-methane. We hope the G7 will expand its efforts in these areas, including proactively implementing the policy changes required to support these technologies. … Supporting development of gas resources including biomethane, renewable natural gas, and other renewable and low carbon gaseous fuels." | Industry is supportive of low-carbon technologies | Role of Fossil Gas: Energy Transition (Use of Science - Partially Aligned)
The IPCC’s August 2022 Report Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change discusses the potential for new technologies to decarbonize fossil gas, including the use of alternative energy carriers in net zero energy systems such as hydrogen and bioenergy to substitute out fossil fuels in sectors less amenable to electrification”. However, it draws attention to issues of cost reduction and feasibility of large-scale adoption for such technologies when relied upon for achieving net zero emissions. The IPCC finds that other common characteristics of net zero energy systems include the “widespread electrification of end uses”, including light duty transport, heating, and cooking and “substantially lower use of fossil fuels.” | Industry Efforts on Climate: Advocacy for and investments in ‘low carbon’ technology
InfluenceMap December 2022 International Gas Union’s Climate Strategy report detailed how the industry are attempting to lock-in fossil gas through the “greening of gas”, which involves promoting low carbon and decarbonized gases as a means to improve the perception of fossil gas and secure its long-term role in the energy mix. Such that it would be misaligned with the IPCC indicating for a reduction in primary energy supplied from fossil gas and a reduction in fossil fuel demand in 1.5°C-compliant energy pathway. InfluenceMap’s September 2022 Big Oil's Real Agenda on Climate Change report highlighted this contradiction, when it found that in 2021 despite 60% of public communication instances by Big Oil companies references "green claims", only 12% of the companies’ 2022 capital expenditure was forecasted to be dedicated to "low carbon" activities. |
"Specifically, we called on G7 leaders to advance the following priorities in its forthcoming meetings and ultimate Communique:
• Ensure that international commitments to expeditiously replace Russian natural gas are matched by clear and consistent supportive policies enabling achievement of this goal, including by: • Working with industry to encourage public and private investment in all segments of the natural gas supply chain to ensure sufficient development and availability of non Russian supplies, while ensuring consistency with long-term climate objectives. • Committing to cooperate on ways to improve guidelines and practices associated with public financing of natural gas infrastructure and foster efficient and timely review of permitting of such infrastructure." | There is a need for greater investment into fossil gas projects and infrastructure | Role of Fossil Gas: Energy Transition (Misaligned)
In 2021, the IEA report on reaching ‘Net Zero by 2050’ found that there must be no fossil gas fields beyond those already committed to from 2021, stating that global demand for fossil gas would need to fall by ‘more than 5% per year on average’ during the 2030s. It also stressed that a significant number of LNG facilities currently under construction or at a planning stage would not be needed, with LNG trade shown to fall by 60% between 2020 and 2050. The IPCC’s April 2022 Report on Mitigation of Climate Change highlighted that primary energy supplied from fossil gas will need to fall on average by –20 to –60% to keep global warming within 1.5°C by 2050, noting some pathway variations based on CCS deployment It also detailed that future emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure are estimated to exceed remaining cumulative CO2 emissions for a 1.5°C energy pathway. To align emissions with this pathway, the IPCC recognizes the need for cancellation of new fossil fuel projects alongside decommissioning and reduce utilization. |