ETMarkets Smart Talk: India remains a relative oasis of growth among the larger G20 economies: Sanjay Chawla

"On the earnings front, we expect aggregate earnings to continue to deliver low teen growth. Hence, on an overall basis, we expect the Indian market to deliver returns that are in line with earnings growth. To sum up, reasonable valuations coupled with one of the highest growth rates make for a compelling case of attractive compounding returns for Indian markets."

I give 4 out of 5 to Budget 2023 which is pro-growth: Prateek Pant

Yes, the FY24 budget builds on the foundation of sustainable growth laid out in the previous budgets while signaling policy continuity with a thrust on public capex, enhancing the ease of doing business and boosting exports and manufacturing.

Planning to spend Rs 10 lakh post Budget? Divam Sharma highlights sectors to invest

Yes definitely, it was a very balanced budget with growth as the north star. Long-term infrastructure creation, focus on human capital development, and ensuring a GDP multiplier effect from agri-sector spend and tax rate cuts remained in focus.

What Budget 2023 tax measures mean for HNIs as well as fresh recruits

"If borrowings are going to be low, there is nothing wrong with debt. There is a great push for equity. Real estate people were putting money in cycles –. sell one property and buy another. That has been capped for large amounts. So government is pushing towards financialisation. So every asset class is taken care of and every individual has something to take home. "

Budget 2023: Mega capex in infra to create demand for multiple industries, jobs: TV Narendran, Tata Steel

“If I look at sectors like steel and cement, one certainly needs to have green energy sources available, green hydrogen available. One needs to have the policy framework to support investments in these areas as a user industry. In Europe, we need to have carbon border adjustment mechanisms to make sure that carbon inefficient products do not come into the country when one is investing in creating carbon efficient products. "

Adani crisis not a systemic risk for Indian banking or financial system: Mahesh Nandurkar, Jefferies

“Over a period of time, we have seen that the government doing step by step reducing the tax incentives and reducing the number of instruments and the number of choices that we have to manage personal tax rates. What has happened in insurance is one more step in that direction.”

Why Saurabh Mukherjea doesn’t let Budget dictate his likes and dislikes

“I do not think the RBI will have reason to hike further, nor should you and I lose that much sleep about inflation concerns, she is giving a GDP growth projection, a nominal GDP growth projection of say 10.5 and a tax revenue growth proportionately. So inflation concerns I think are easing, global commodity prices are coming off and we end up in a decent place from a private sector consumption growth perspective.”

Budget 2023: As government's capex comes in, pvt sector capex will start with lag of a quarter: Baba Kalyani

“The way we see in India Inc, we are already doing capex. It is just that we are doing capex with our own money rather than going to the banks and borrowing like it used to happen in the old days. I do not think any one of us has stopped capex.”

Budget 2023: Moody's Guzman lauds ‘responsible’ Budget, says Adani issue not big risk for Indian financial system

“The Budget acknowledges that the economy continues to need support in light of the challenging global economic conditions. Some of the revenue measures are going to be a big help to households and citizens and with the on-going emphasis on capital expenditure and is going to be positive for long term growth.”

Saurabh Mukherjea on how Adani issue caused mkt to fall despite good Budget

"The western media is going to town on a specific subject and that is why I saying that if we want these corrections to be more limited, if we want the Budget to be celebrated in the way it should be, we will need a degree of clearing the air statements from our regulator. Every foreign investor I have spoken to in the last seven days says India's institutions have to stand up and give comfort on governance."

Dhirendra Kumar on what surprised and what disappointed him in Budget 2023

"The government has only been an enabler and if you look at all the digital stack which is being talked about all over the world, that is actually one of the biggest enablers in terms of the investors being able to participate so seamlessly. If you look at all the announcements that have happened about the digital transaction and about the fintechs, the way they can actually participate, there is going to be a single source of all the information from where the digital enablement will happen."

Investors should pivot to bond allocation as well as US equity if they can: Maneesh Dangi

“The sentiments of retail is also sour for whatever has happened in the last couple of days and to that extent, India's local micro setup, which is more to do with flows as well as sentiment, which are a little bit on the downtick and which perhaps is the reason why despite a reasonably strong sort of Budget for all sort of audiences, even bond markets are down 6-7 basis point.”

It’s the best time to put money on both Nifty & Bank Nifty: Sanjiv Bhasin

“This Budget is all about MSMEs. MSME means banking growth and consumption and we have got relief for all types of tax brackets and could not have asked for more. There’s capex push with Rs 7.5 lakh crore becoming Rs 10 lakh crore. Markets are going to take a day or so. Next week onwards, 18,500 is on the cards.”

A Bahubali budget; FM shot multiple objectives with one arrow, says Nilesh Shah, Kotak AMC

“Credible numbers are giving confidence that the Budget presented by the FM is reliable, steady & growth-oriented. The estimates are fairly conservative. 6.5% real GDP growth, some amount of inflation and tax buoyancy, 11-11.5% revenue estimates looks fairly conservative just like last year. The divestment targets which are set, can easily be achieved.”

Market to remain volatile till relative valuation of India is more comfortable: S Naren

“FII exodus has come out of the relative valuation of India versus the world and this Budget was not something that could have completely changed sentiment because the government has to do fiscal consolidation. They have to stimulate growth and they have done both. This is the reason why the immediate reaction has been positive but the Budget cannot change market valuations.”

Budget 2023 should be good for auto sales, says Maruti Suzuki’s Shashank Srivastava

“The rural demand this year so far has been slightly higher than urban demand. The growth of retail in rural is about 24% compared to 22% for the urban areas. Going forward, these measures should pull up Maruti Suzuki’s sales in rural areas. It is already 44% of our portfolio.”

Want to add positions, banks are the best bet, says Sunil Singhania

“If someone wants to add positions in the market, banks are the best way of doing it. So, 40% weightage in Nifty and obviously you would like to participate in the economy related sectors and therefore if you just look at that, banks automatically become the first choice. So it is very, very normal.”

Estimated overall revenue foregone due to direct taxes proposals to be Rs 37,000 cr: Sanjay Malhotra, Revenue Secretary

There are some other exemptions also, you will note in the Budget, which we have removed this year. And so, going with that trend, the new regime has been made the default regime.

Budget 2023: This is bumper Diwali kind of a Budget! I give it 10 out of 5: Vijay Kedia

The short-sellers may be running away but the most important thing is how the FIIs will react and from where they are going to get the stocks, says market veteran Vijay Kedia after announcement of the Budget 2023 by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman

Revival of consumer demand will be the big takeaway of this Budget: Nilesh Shah

I think it clearly shows a lot of conviction and boldness on the part of the government. To assume that yearly taxes are going to keep rising and they will lower taxes and still have higher taxes which means that the government seems to be very confident on growth which I think is a huge message to investors and to markets and to business and enterprises.

Proactive steps taken in Budget which augurs well for economy: Sanjiv Puri, ITC

​So once consumption picks up, I think more and more private investment should come in. We are already seeing silver linings of the private capex kicking in. So both together, over a period of time, can have a multiplier effect on the economy.

Budget 2023: What sectors are likely to lead the market post Budget? Prashant Jain answers

“Between last September to June 2022, FIIs sold close to $30 billion worth shares and markets stood extremely firm. The impact of FIIs flows is probably going to moderate and therefore the volatility of the Indian market going forward should be lower to that extent. It should not swing too much to FIIs flows and that is a structural positive.”

Budget much more than what we were expecting on personal tax: Shefali Goradia

"Tax changes, even the focus on the dispute resolution adding 100 more joint commissioners is again path breaking and that would really reduce the backlog of pending cases. Generally, the focus on ease of doing business, making it easier for the taxpayers, the grievance redressal system, is hugely positive as well."

India has a great opportunity to become a manufacturing hub for the world in coming decades: Sanjiv Bajaj

"We are asking for a simplification or rationalisation and that it is easy to understand. It drives the ease of doing business. It is not that we are looking for a reduction in rates over there but there are so many different classes, we have so many different periods, rates and the more we simplify it, the easier it is for business to understand and follow."

Budget will continue to focus on capex and manufacturing: Ravi Dharamshi

So I think that will remain but the burden needs to shift from central government to state government and private sector on continuing with the capex cycle.

Can this Budget be a 2- 3% Nifty swing event? Vijay Kedia explains

"The only thing that can dampen the sentiment so far the stock market is concerned, is long term capital gain tax. If the government tinkers with it, then the market will fall. But again, it would be a temporary phenomena; maybe after six months or 3-6 months, people will forget that. I do not know what is going to happen today. I am expecting a negative; government will impose tax and the market will go down."

Finance Minister must focus on getting dollars: Shankar Sharma

So I think just on the basis of probability, we should be looking at an uptrend post budget rather than flat to a downtrend market.

Key for India is to go through 2023-2024 without losing macroeconomic stability: Jahangir Aziz

“In the next 12-18 months, it is far more important for India to meet its $5 trillion target or whatever the target is, to survive 2023-2024 without losing macroeconomic stability and the key is going to be maintaining and preserving macro stability in a very difficult global environment and then do things on the reform side and get to a faster growth trajectory.”

Can the Budget give a boost to the rural theme? Deven Choksey answers

“In the case of Adani Group, the companies will individually start recovering the prices on the basis of merit. Some of the companies have hit the lower circuits on fear of selling in MSCI related portfolios. If that particular fear recedes, then some of the companies would recover. I do not know about a V-shape recovery but there would be a smart recovery and stability in prices.”

Economic Survey is an assessment of economic conditions & not an occasion for grandstanding: V Anantha Nageswaran, CEA

“On real GDP growth, we project a baseline number of 6.5% for the next financial year with a band of 6% to 6.8%. We also acknowledged that downside risks dominate the upside risk to this number. The Economic Survey at the end of the day is an assessment of economic conditions and the near term prospects and we have also highlighted some areas where actions are needed. We do not see this as an occasion for grandstanding.”

Govt should consider uniformly taxing asset classes and change capital tax gain structure: Monika Halan

“What we need to really see is a more committed effort to get people who are still out of the tax net into paying their due taxes. The government has to do something to stop people like us from being cheated because there is somebody next to you who has 30% more income simply because they are out of the tax net.”

Prioritising expenditure is going to be a big challenge this year: Dr Sachidanand Shukla

"Tax revenues have stagnated at around 7% of GDP over the last decade or 10-12 years. Even the share of non-tax revenues has been dropping over time. It is now just about one odd percent and therefore, to me, the big challenge this year is going to be with a stagnating top line or the revenue item. How do you meet the said demands when it comes to reprioritise expenditure?"

Government should focus on fiscal consolidation in Budget 2023: Abheek Barua

Tax collections are partly dependent on the nominal GDP number, it comes into the denominator. So that is a matter of concern and that is something I would focus on in looking at the Budget numbers tomorrow.

There is merit in rationalizing the taxes but should it be done this year? Madhu Kela answers

"Logically speaking, given that markets have also become normal, given the context that there is talk of global recession and we need very healthy capital markets, it should not get distorted. Having said this, if the time frame changes and for LTCG tax, long term goes from one year to two years, I do not see a meaningful impact on the markets."

Sceptical about PLI scheme; time to reverse customs duty hike: Arvind Panagariya

“Certainly, PLI as well as protection can give a boost in certain sectors that get the protection and sectors that get the subsidy will undoubtedly do better. It improves the profitability for the entrepreneurs and so those sectors will do better. The question is whether manufacturing as a whole will do better, and that we have not seen. Also, it is not sustainable,” says Arvind Panagariya, Former VC, NITI Aayog.

Why LTCG and NPS taxation need a relook this Budget: Alok Agarwal

"There is some need to rationalise LTCG but the key question again is two-fold; one is how much does it help the government in improving their tax collections because the government would certainly look at whether the change will impact the stock market because you do not want a big impact on the sentiments of the retail investor."

If 20% of total expenditure is capex, it will be a big boost for a lot of sectors: Madhu Kela

“The government has Rs 1.5 lakh crore of surplus from subsidy. The RBI has the legroom to give at least Rs 80,000 crore to Rs 1 lakh crore more by way of dividend to the government. If I take both of this into account, there will roughly be Rs 2.25 lakh to Rs 2.5 lakh crore of extra ammunition right in this Budget which was not there last year.”

Why Arvind Panagariya does not expect a populist Budget this year

"A good tax system minimises exemptions and really eliminates all of them and keeps the tax rates low. The government had tried this in Budget 2021. It introduced an alternative tax schedule which taxpayers could use largely and very few exemptions were admissible under that schedule but the tax rates still remain quite high. As a result, there have not been many takers. Only people like me, who have zero exemptions, use that tax schedule. "

Madam FM, don’t tinker with the Budget or with capital gains tax at all: Aveek Mitra

“Let us see how the FPO works for Adani tomorrow. There is an issue that will happen as soon as tomorrow. After that, people can take positions on different stocks. As for the new age stocks, we have invested in one. We are tracking all. We like their business models but that does not mean that the valuation is on the right side.”

What does government need to do to make new tax regime more attractive? Deloitte's Alok Agarwal explains

"The government had introduced new tax regime and we will talk about that, but the problem is that tax rates have not reduced and for higher income brackets, tax rates have only gone up with surcharges etc. Some deductions and exemptions have become largely irrelevant because of inflation over the years where the limits have not changed."

2023 is likely to be a good year for the infrastructure sector: Mohit Ralhan

The market behaviour is typical of the month before the budget. The Indian markets have fallen in four out of the last five years in the month before the budget. The volatility typically goes up as the budget expectations continue to evolve.

Facilitating growth will be the theme of Budget over next couple of years: Keki Mistry, HDFC

“One must understand that housing loans are for 13 years or 15 years and over that period of time, rates will go up and come down. It does not make too much economic difference whether you take a loan at the time when rates are higher or low because if they are high now they will come down, if they are low today they will go up at some point in time."

What stocks to go for when it comes to Budget play? Pankaj Murarka answers

“On Friday, we saw a fair bit of selloff in a lot of consumer discretionary names as well as some of the names across telecoms and other sectors. I would think that this is a good time to buy into some of these names for investors wanting to play the Budget or probably look at slightly more medium term beyond the Budget.”

Wait till the Budget is over, it’s okay to buy at a little higher level: Kunj Bansal

"The market has corrected very sharply, not as much in the indices but certainly the individual sectors and stocks have fallen much more which happens in a rising market also is that rising indices do not rise but individual stocks rise much more. Going forward, assuming that my view on the market remains a subdued or a range-bound kind of market, the clear out performance will come from IT and banking."

Will bulls make a comeback post Budget after last week's carnage? Anand James decodes history

"Friday’s turn of events presents an opportunity in the near-term though. Firstly, we have slipped over 1400 points from the record peak and are at a 3 Standard Deviation (SD) boundary, which suggests that an end to downtrend is nearing. Secondly Nifty PCR (put call ratio) is at 0.67 after Friday’s carnage, and incidentally, the last time we had negative close and sub 1 PCR ahead of Budget, we saw a 4% gain in the 3 days post budget."

India should catch up with global peers once Union Budget is over: Safir Anand

"If you have a global portfolio and your portfolio starts going up, then your allocation to India as a percentage will fall and there is no doubt in the world that India is going to grow, the debates are not on growth, it is on issues that seem to be more temporary in nature."

Hoping to see rise in public sector capex; tax rationalisation in Budget: Sanjiv Bajaj

"We need revenue augmentation and divestments will help us to get those additional revenues. I know that during elections, things can be a little bit more sensitive but this government has been very strong and confident in how it acts and that is why we continue to see the momentum in these areas."

What Patanjali Food’s Sanjeev Asthana is expecting from the Budget

“There was a dip in the rural demand and post the harvest, the high commodity prices and due to the wedding season overall, there was a good uptick in the rural demand in this quarter. I am anticipating that at the back of pretty much similar reasons, we should see the demand momentum continuing to go forward but the growth rate is slightly tempered.”

Indian market likely to move up after Budget: Sandip Sabharwal

“The critical point for Tata Motors always was that the operating leverage is so huge that once the turnaround happens and if it sustains, then the profits which come will be so large that the stock becomes suddenly very cheap. Most analysts have projections of Rs 30 to 50 EPS for next year and the stock is cheap. We have bought into Tata Motors after a long time. There could be significant upsides over the next two years.”

Expect continued focus on infra development for growth impetus: Vinay Jain

"​We at Karma Capital have a bottom-up approach towards stock selection with an average investment horizon of more than 5 years, hence, the Union Budget has very little or no bearing on the stock selection process. ​Banks, industrials, and consumption-driven companies should perform better while performance of sectors like technology and commodities is expected to be relatively weaker."