Can this Budget be a 2- 3% Nifty swing event? Vijay Kedia explains

“I now think the government’s entire focus would be to give push to private infrastructure or private capex. I read somewhere that this Jewar Airport which is coming in 2025 or something, from the first day would be the biggest airport in the world and the same thing is going to happen with the New Mumbai Airport. So with this kind of infrastructure getting created in India, of course, infrastructure would be the theme and that is the future,” says market veteranVijay Kedia.

The Nifty in the last 52 weeks is absolutely flat, the midcap index in the last one year is absolutely flat. The difference is, in 2022, Budget expectations were high and markets were confident that the GDP accelerator would be there. The sugar rush was on. Right now, the levels are the same but there is no excitement. Rather, there is fear in the market. Are we getting ready for the next big wave or rally in the market?
Yes, of course because the trailer shows that. As you said, there is no excitement in the market, people are not expecting much from this budget. So even a little bit of optimism will bring joy in abundance.

You have said no to infrastructure as an investment. Why?
No, of course, I think that would be the theme because so far, whatever capex had been happening in India, the government was spending. I now think the government’s entire focus would be to give push to private infrastructure or private capex. I read somewhere that this Jewar Airport which is coming in 2025 or something, from the first day would be the biggest airport in the world and the same thing is going to happen with the New Mumbai Airport. So with this kind of infrastructure getting created in India, of course, that would be the theme and that is the future.

If I keep February 2021 as an outlier, irrespective of short term, long term, irrespective of the tax regime, fiscal deficit, the average swing on the budget day with one outlier which does not change, your average is 2%. Does that sum up today's Budget? It does not matter what the taxes are, it does not matter which way things are moving, is it a 2- 3% Nifty swing event?
I am optimistic because the only thing that can dampen the sentiment so far the stock market is concerned, is long term capital gain tax. If the government tinkers with it, then the market will fall. But again, it would be a temporary phenomena; maybe after six months or 3-6 months, people will forget that. I do not know what is going to happen today. I am expecting a negative; government will impose tax and the market will go down.

Pick your choice?
More or less I agree that the one sector which is missing here is banking. So, hike in FPI limit in banks would help. So banks and NBFCs should also be included. It is a very underweight sector because without credit nothing is going to happen.