2024 US presidential election: Joe Biden threatens not only his path to victory but his party's chances to win back the House

There are times when politics demands radical thinking and a change of tactics, cumbersome and painful as they might be. Anything short brings defeat closer, to say nothing of the burden of history to follow.

The Democratic Party faces such a time after Joe Biden's alarming presidential debate performance last week. The question is no longer about one bad day vs many good days, or 90 minutes vs 3½ years, but about the next four years and 1,461 consecutive days riddled with domestic and international crises.

With two wars raging, a world without order, a deeply contested geopolitical landscape and extreme polarisation at home, the 2024 US presidential election is more consequential than usual. If 'democracy' is at stake, as Democrats have been telling the world, they need an able defender. The Europeans are especially worried for obvious reasons: a second Donald Trump presidency scares them for what it might do to Nato and the status quo.

It's time for the Democratic Party establishment to acknowledge the unspeakable. A more vigorous candidate could turn the race around more definitively, especially with all the help Trump is getting from the US Supreme Court. A 6-3 ruling on Monday said that Trump had substantial immunity from prosecution on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 results and sent the case back to the lower court for review. This means the case won't come to trial before the election. No gain for Dems and no pain for Trump.

Voters have been telling pollsters for a year they think Biden is too old for a second term. Last August, 77% of all surveyed and 69% of the Democrats said so in an AP poll. In February, an ABC News/Ipsos poll showed 86%. People can see what the Biden campaign and his surrogates won't - that he struggles and mightily so. They sense imminent danger the spin machine desperately tries to obscure.

But warnings have been ignored by an insular inner circle and a complacent party, especially after a better-than-expected showing in the midterms. Aggressive spokespersons declared all imagery of Biden's fumbles as doctored by Right- wing outlets. Mainstream media, which can be quite obedient to 'national interest', played along. Biden defeated Trump four years ago, and he could do it again, so the story went.

Until cruel reality showed up.

As American novelist Sinclair Lewis once said, 'Whatever poet, orator or sage may say of it, old age is still old age.' You can highlight the dangers of a second Trump presidency, but in the end, Biden must energise voters to come to the polls. The young are livid and sulking over Biden's adamant support to Israel.

Biden's family and advisers must introspect if risking the election is worth the vanity because that's what it boils down to - the belief that he can defy nature. Blind loyalty is not smart politics, nor a winning strategy. Biden threatens not only his path to victory but the party's chances to win back the House and retain the Senate. Unsurprisingly, Democratic candidates in key races either stayed mum or said little about the debate, hoping they would be immune from what happened.

They have good reason to worry. They hope that enough independent and swing voters would want to keep a check on a Trump presidency by giving Democrats the House and the Senate. But what if voters feel that a choice is being foisted upon them in the shape of Biden and feel less inclined to split their vote between the two parties?

Will the party do the painful and persuade Biden to step aside? Democrats have a deep bench of good candidates, and there's still time for them to throw their hat in the ring, compete for delegates at the convention and energise the race. Yes, it will be risky, but would it be riskier than the current scenario?

Here's what will likely happen: everyone will go into their corner, pretend all is well and hope for the best. Recent history is a valuable guide to how the party can read the room wrong. In 2016, it did so most glaringly when Barack Obama told Biden to stand down because it was Hillary Clinton's turn. Out of touch with the country's mood and limited by arrogance, the establishment bombed.

Ironically, Biden, with his working-class credentials and scrappy ways, had a better chance of beating Trump in 2016 and might have been ending his second term now. He was a different man eight years ago - a lot younger and feistier. But the party got the politics all wrong. It might be doing so again.