ARVIND SANGER
Will FII money come in after govt signals continuity in portfolio allocation? Arvind Sanger explains
I think FII flows have other global factors to look at. What is going on with interest rates globally, what is going on with risk on, risk off globally. So, I think in addition to the India focus factors, let us look at the global factors and I think the global factors are that there is a lot of uncertainty this week.
Is it time to buy large-cap stocks after yesterday's market drop? Arvind Sanger answers
We invest in companies where we feel promoters' interests are aligned with shareholder interests for long-term value creation and we will have to see in the current coalition government what are going to be the new areas of emphasis and what is going to be the continuity.
India better off than most other markets, but not immune to global recession fears: Arvind Sanger
“India is better off than most other markets and India's earnings this quarter should be pretty solid, but India is not immune to global recession fears and Middle East tensions creating any spike in oil prices. Patience is the name of the game. I do not see any reason equity markets are going to run away unless all of these problems go away magically tomorrow, which unfortunately looks unlikely.”
Best news is despite such rapid rate hikes, the US economy is remain resilient: Arvind Sanger
"The upcoming employment data on Friday will be crucial in determining if there is hope for economic growth in the US economy. The US economy has shown resilience so far, with employment data so far indicating that inflation pressures may be easing. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and the overall state of the economy. "
For the rest of the year, we feel good about putting money to work in India: Arvind Sanger
Geosphere Capital's Arvind Sanger, believes that the Indian market has been a relative outperformer in the last few months and looks well positioned for the rest of the year. While Sanger believes that the US economy is due for a recession, he is puzzled by the behaviour of the markets, which appear to be anticipating the recession, rather than reacting in their usual way.
Goldilocks is dead; no benign case seen without inflation falling meaningfully: Arvind Sanger
“This is very much a US and now European problem. China's export industry will see some spillover but there are other parts of China which were in lockdown last year and significant parts of the domestic economy could revive. The commodity market has some legs and gold to be perfectly honest, is one of the areas that could be very interesting going forward.”
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China reopening is going to be the big story of 2023: Arvind Sanger
I think it is a little early but we have had many false starts before hoping that the Fed is done and every time some slightly favourable data comes the market rallies. Then when the next data points comes and the Fed governors comes and talk and then it sells off.
China could be market of the year in 2023 but India won’t do badly either: Arvind Sanger
“Once we get past the short term consequences of Covid problems that China is going to see in the next two to three months, the Chinese government is probably going to have to make up for some of its zero Covid and other actions that have hurt the economy and be much more supportive of the economy in 2023.”
Till Fed takes its foot off the brake, it is hard to see reacceleration in markets: Arvind Sanger
“The only thing the equity investor should watch out for are signs that either the US and global economies are slowing down dramatically and inflation is coming down or something else that gives support to the old saying do not fight the Fed. Right now, trying to pick bottoms in this market is fighting the Fed.”
Repeat of last month’s strong FII flows unlikely: Arvind Sanger
“The pace of the rebound in FIIs flows is likely to take a bit of a pause in the next weeks and months. I would not say big pause but certainly if the inflation data comes out to be of negative surprise meaning too much inflation or if the Fed continues to talk much more hawkish, you could see some risk-off and really it is not about India specific.”
Be patient and buy slowly; stick to quality stocks: Arvind Sanger
“This is a time to go for high grade portfolios and one should not be in the more speculative names which might give more upside if all clear sounds. But till the all clear sounds, it is time to be more conservative about sticking to high quality banks, high quality domestic plays, high quality pharmaceutical or IT companies.”
Be very patient before stepping into the market; there’s no back stop now: Arvind Sanger
“Russia is a major supplier of a lot of metals – Palladium, aluminium. They supply coal. So there are a lot of commodities that are coming out of Russia and that can create risks that we cannot quantify right now. The markets will have to get to valuations where all these risks are discounted. However, markets are far from being screaming buys.”
Arvind Sanger on crash in Meta stock & what it means for Indian unicorns
“In a low interest rates environment, that differentiation did not matter as much. People were willing to buy anything but in a rising interest rates environment, there is much less willingness to pay for future hope for growth.”
Why have FIIs turned big sellers in the Indian market? Arvind Sanger answers
“FIIs in general are a little bit risk averse as they see a probably more aggressive taper looming and are looking at places where they see less risk from that.”
Not Biden’s tax proposals, market more wary of global slowdown: Arvind Sanger
“The tax proposals by Biden saw just a modest pullback but the other issues have caused stocks to sell off a lot more.”
Fed more reassuring than market expectations: Arvind Sanger
Fed is going to be patient and wait for the economy to normalise and employment to drop sharply.
Stage set for multi-year private sector capex cycle
In FY22, the earnings upside could be dramatically better than even what many analysts are forecasting, says Arvind Sanger
Not end of the bull market, but high fliers may correct meaningfully: Arvind Sanger
'We are recognising that the US economy is far from having a V-shaped recovery.'
RIL’s story was of being at the right place at the right time: Arvind Sanger
‘It does not look like any great new deal is about to happen in the refining and petrochemical business’
Supply cut a must, as soon there'll be no place to store oil: Arvind Sanger
Global demand is down by 20-25 million barrels a day, says the Managing Partner at Geosphere Capital.
Fed bazooka turned out to be a pop gun for markets: Arvind Sanger
We can’t be sure till we get a sense of how bad the Coronavirus crisis is and how long it will go on, says the Geosphere Capital founder & managing partner.
This is not the time to rush out to bottom fish in a big way: Arvind Sanger
Be careful till we know the extent of the depth of the coronavirus impact on economies, says Geosphere Capital managing partner.
Deceleration risk in India lower than other countries: Arvind Sanger
The Founder & MD of Geosphere Capital says coronavirus is very much a real-world problem that will affect supply chains and global growth.
No more handouts, focus on reviving investments and creating jobs: Arvind Sanger, Geosphere Capital Management
I am not sure that the Budget offers any panacea. But at least a statement with a philosophical underpinning of a medium term to long term plan for the economy which will show how the government is thinking as they get more fiscal space, will be good, says Arvind Sanger, Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management.
Iran-US tension could see bigger selloff in indices than broader market: Arvind Sanger, Geosphere Capital
This is not a time when investors are going to be rushing in.
Growth has gone missing in action in India right now: Arvind Sanger, Geosphere Capital
India is getting close to buy points from a historical standpoint, Get ready for long-term bets
Outflow of DIIs are going to be biggest negative for market: Arvind Sanger, Geosphere Capital
“Savings could move into the bond market, especially as bond yields have tightened.”
Fed rate hike to have bigger impact on some EMs, not US: Arvind Sanger, Geosphere Capital
"The optimistic easy money scenario of last year is missing this year."
Oil can hit $80 and even go far beyond. Arvind Sanger of Geosphere Capital explains why
"Oil prices are here because the global demand has been growing strongly."
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