ASHOKA UNIVERSITYS CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC DATA AND ANALYSIS
FMCG is “passe”: Indian economy has a new definition of defensive stocks: 8 stocks from 2 sectors with upside scope of up to 37%
On the day of election results were announced and the whole stock market melted, stocks from one sector were able to gain, that was FMCG. Many theories were floated about why they are doing well. Right from them being defensive stocks to that focus would not shift from investment to consumption. But close to a month down the line, all those stocks are once again in the under performance mode. The fact is before deciding on whether the stocks are defensive or not, some questions need to be asked. A stock which was a defensive stock in 1994 when the Indian economy was just opening is still a defensive stock even in 2024 when we are a whole different economy with different needs and consumption patterns.
Counter-questions for the asking
India's growing population, coupled with higher disposable incomes and consumption, has already begun to devastate our carefully constructed cocoons without our realising it. Competitive manufacturing (leveraging economies of scale, procurement, branding and digitalisation) may be enticing more people to consume more (double effect), accelerating planet-stripping.
Defence stocks have done it, will the infrastructure sector follow suit? 6 stocks of the highway makers
There are four sectors, Railways, Defence, Infrastructure and PSU as a set of stocks where election results were important due to the fact that policy continuity was seen as major tailwinds. Because the results were not exactly the way the street had expected, there was a sharp reaction in all these stocks after the election results. But within ten days, the majority of the defence stocks are already higher than what they were quoting on the day of elections. The question is whether other sectors also will see a catch up or not. Now there cannot be any doubt that political noise levels are going to remain high and that might create uncertainty at times. It might take a while for some of the sectors to get the momentum back on the street but probability of getting back on track is high as and when the street gets an indication that it is work as usual in the sector.
Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide D-Street action on Friday
Nifty range-bound flat closing for the last four days indicates a pause before a sharp move. The direction of this move is not yet known, at least not before any directional breakout. Solar Industries, Titagarh Rail Systems, Carborundum Universal, Paras Defence and Space Technologies showed bullish bias.
FMCG sector: Street might treat it as saviors in some phases & there is more to it than HUL, 13 stocks, with upside potential of up to 42 %
On the day of the election result and the day after that, two days in succession, everyone was talking about FMCG stocks. Explanations about why they are safe heaven stocks, how the focus on rural income and consumption will benefit them. Third day, the broader market recovered and FMCG was probably the only loser. This is not the first time that it has happened. For ages, FMCG stocks have been considered defensive stocks. Whether FMCG stocks should be defensive is a different issue. What is relevant is that there is a probability that going forward, there will be phases, where a narrative about FMCG stocks being defensive will keep coming to the street. Given the fact that their valuations are expensive, there is hardly any growth in business, it would be worthwhile to understand that sector otherwise one might end up buying stocks and make the capital underperform. We look at 28 stocks from every segment, right from food and beverage to cosmetics.
Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide stock action on Monday
Nifty50 and Sensex, the benchmark equity indices, reached record highs on Friday, reclaiming losses incurred on election day. The surge was attributed to expectations of political stability and forecasts indicating accelerated economic growth.
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Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide D-Street action on Friday
The NSE Nifty 50 index ended 0.89% higher at 22,821 points and the S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.93% to 75,074, adding to their gains of more than 3% on Wednesday.
Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide D-Street action on Wednesday
Indian benchmark indices slipped around 6% each on Tuesday, a day after the blue-chip indices surged to record highs on Monday as exit polls had projected a much bigger margin of victory. MACD showed bullish trade on the counters of Solar Industries, Sobha, Phoenix Mills, and Container Corporation of India. Shares of India Cement, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Bandhan Bank, Dalmia Bharat hit their 52-week lows.
Infrastructure stocks: With more clarity a stronger round of re-rating in Modi 3.0? 7 infra stock with upside potential of up to 33%
Couple of months back PM Modi had mentioned his priorities of Modi 3.0. The first word which was used was infrastructure and then subsequently others. There should not be any surprise given the fact that even in the last ten years, infrastructure has been a priority. What has changed is that in the first five years, it was the clean up of the books and debt which was taking place. In the next five it was both, lowering debt, higher order book and now with books much better placed, much less litigation, now when the order book gets bigger as the focus on infrastructure continues the increase is likely to be more visible in margins and that increases the probability of even a strong and sustained rating. We take a look at infrastructure makers, which is very different from infrastructure owners. Though in some cases, these companies also have some projects where they have stakes.
Lok Sabha Elections 2024: How exit polls predict results using voter data
Despite strict regulations to prevent misinformation, exit polls remain a significant part of India's electoral process. These surveys, conducted outside polling stations, offer immediate insights into voter behaviour. Challenges in methodology and the need for accurate representation highlight the complexities of these polls. Innovations and compliance with the EC's guidelines ensure ethical reporting and transparency.
At 5.6% of GDP, FY24 fiscal gap beats target
In absolute terms, the FY24 fiscal deficit stood at ?16.54 lakh crore, down from the revised estimate of ?17.35 lakh crore and FY23 level of ?17.38 lakh crore, showed the official data released on Friday. A lower-than-anticipated deficit in FY24 and a generous surplus transfer by RBI earlier this month make the government's goal of reining in fiscal gap at 5.1% of GDP in FY25 seem more realistic now, experts said.
View: Gotta get ready for the AI-ternative
The integration of AI, nano robotics, space tech, and battery tech is transforming industries and reshaping economic models. As digital workers replace human roles in areas like call centers and logistics, governments must address potential job losses. Suggested measures include reskilling programs, focusing on labor-intensive industries, and implementing universal basic income (UBI) to support displaced workers. This proactive approach will help manage the transition and harness the benefits of these groundbreaking technologies.
Stock Radar: This battery maker stock turned multibagger in a year; what should investors do?
Exide Industries has given massive returns to its investors in a year and according to experts there is more steam left in the stock. The stock has an upside of 143% in a year. After consolidating in a narrow range for the past few weeks, it gave a breakout from the same this week. The sudden rise followed by consolidation resembles a breakout above a Flag & Pole pattern.
Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide D-Street action on Friday
Nifty ended Thursday with a decline of 216 points, driven by strong selling pressure across most sectors. The 50-stock index fell for the fifth consecutive session and is now trading below the crucial 21-day Exponential Moving Average (21EMA).
Ahead of June 4, be relatively light & in cash; curtail trading: Dipan Mehta
Dipan Mehta advises caution and light trading ahead of the upcoming election dates. He emphasizes the importance of being in cash and watching the election results closely for investment decisions.
Cement, infra are key sectors to look at because of prospect of policy continuity: Pankaj Pandey
Pankaj Pandey discusses the impact of the incumbent government's majority on the market, focusing on earnings, Budget expectations, and sector performance post-elections. Pandey further says once this monsoon gets over the focus will shift towards the overall infra spend side. Cement has not seen much of a price performance and key players like ACC, Ambuja, UltraTech or JK Cement are going to experience a slightly better growth rate than the industry.
Post-COVID, China is back in Africa and doubling down on minerals
Chinese overseas investment, with a focus on minerals extraction in Africa, is rebounding post-pandemic. However, the relationship remains extractive, not fully aligned with the Belt and Road Initiative's goals outlined by President Xi Jinping.
The business ties that bind the U.S. and China are strong but fraying
Many big U.S. companies depend on China for a substantial part of their income and rely on Chinese suppliers and factories for their products.
How Jaipur-based AU Small Finance Bank plans to plug a $400 billion credit gap
India’s largest small finance bank has recently bulked up and is now looking to utilise its heft to increase its presence in MSME lending. How successful would it be, is the billion-dollar question.
Extreme heat lowers nations’ per capita income — but cities could thrive even in hotter conditions: Matthew E. Kahn
Matthew E. Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics at USC, discusses the impact of climate on economic growth and solutions offered by enterprise in an interview with Srijana Mitra Das.
India must loosen the cords tying it too tightly to the pervasive influence of global Big Tech
India aims for self-sufficiency through autarky and atmanirbhar initiatives, focusing on nurturing the 13 markers of 'Viksit Bharat' for a fully digitised economy and sustained growth in various sectors.
Infrastructure stocks: Stay bullish, hedge to participate in next round of re-rating: 6 infra stock with an upside potential of up to 39%
Among the sectors which have seen a strong re-rating in the last five years, probably infrastructure is amongst the top ones. Like many other sectors here also the re-rating has been largely due to policy push and government spending. If one looks at the performance of the companies in the last five years, there has been clearly strong growth across the board. So, policy continuity becomes critical for this sector and the stocks. The
PM panel says Muslims are thriving. Math says that’s not true
Muslim population is not rising the fastest, Hindu population growth is not the slowest — this is what an analysis of the dataset used by the advisory panel to the PM shows
Defensive stocks: FMCG is “passe”; 8 stocks from two sectors may be called “new defensives” with upside potential of up to 32%
1994 to 2024 is a difference of 30 years, but there is one thing which has remained constant, advice to move to defensive stocks when markets are volatile or there is an event risk. Four questions need to be asked; first, what is a defensive stock? Second, is a stock which was considered a defensive in 1994 when the Indian economy was just opening, still a defensive stock in 2024 ? Third, should there be a new definition of defensive stock in 2024 ? Last but not the least, what are the new defensive sectors or stocks?
New study challenges benefits of healthcare privatisation
A study published in The Lancet Public Health journal highlights the negative effects of healthcare privatisation, particularly in high-income countries like the US, Germany, Canada, and South Korea. The research, led by the University of Oxford, suggests that privatisation seldom improves the quality of care but is associated with higher profits. It challenges the notion that market competition and flexibility in privately-owned healthcare systems lead to better outcomes.
POSH case reporting confined to a fraction of India Inc cos: Study
A recent analysis of 300 NSE listed companies reveals a concerning trend in reporting sexual harassment complaints under the POSH Act. Despite a rise in complaints, many companies reported zero cases, indicating possible non-compliance. Larger companies, with more resources, tended to report more cases, but size alone couldn't explain the low reporting. The findings emphasize the need for better awareness and reporting mechanisms to address workplace harassment effectively.
Stock Radar: Piramal Enterprises shows signs of bottoming out after 27% fall from highs; is it a contra buy?
After falling over 27% from its September 2023 highs, the stock price shows signs of bottoming out. It hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,140 in September. It found some support above 800 levels in March 2024 and bounced back.
EO data can generate $3 tn in economic benefits; help cut 2 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions: WEF report
The World Economic Forum and Deloitte report emphasize the economic benefits of Earth observation data, with a focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Various industries can leverage EO data for improved operations and sustainability, contributing to global GDP growth.
India among top 5 developing countries in aviation emissions in 2019, study finds
The research team at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology also found that India's share in global CO2 emissions from domestic aviation was the third highest at 1.5 per cent. "The countries with the highest absolute domestic aviation CO2 emissions (global percentage share in total CO2 aviation emissions in parentheses) are the USA (13.4 per cent), China (8.9 per cent), India (1.5 per cent), Russia (1.2 per cent), and Japan (1.1 per cent)," the authors wrote.
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