CORPORATE CYCLE
Economic cracks are getting exposed in the 2024 market bounty
Dispiriting trends that have been visible for months now alongside the frenzy for megacap tech stocks and private credit – are on display yet again. Companies with dicey balance sheets have underperformed anew in June. Equal-weighted stock benchmarks where disruptive AI market leaders have the same weighting as industrial bellwethers have lagged yet again.
Fiscal discipline key to India's growth prospects: Sanjay Nayar
So, we will have to also think about how we channel the energies towards more advanced and more modern techniques and technology, because that is what we need right now.
RBI cautions against surge in private credit between corporates and non-banks
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) warns of systemic risks from the rapid growth of private credit, which has quadrupled in the past decade, especially due to its opacity and interconnectedness with banks and non-banks. The RBI highlights potential vulnerabilities in this segment, including the risk of sharp losses during a credit cycle downturn and challenges posed by complex structures and liquidity risks.
Looking at a Goldilocks scenario for corporate earnings? Mukul Kochhar is betting on 3 sectors
Mukul Kochhar says growth will be structurally higher by a percent, percent-and-a-half and one factor is the current account surplus which should get us into a more stable economic growth cycle. I feel that the private capex cycle is going to be very strong and going to focus a little bit on manufacturing.
It's going to be good after it gets quieter
Companies no longer have the pricing power they had in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic when consumption demand was roaring. That has now played out in manufacturing and services. The growth from here on should be more sedate, building on the economy's post-Covid revival. The markets are yet to price in this moderation, and some froth may be removed once the volatility around the election results settles.
Industrials strong, but be careful about valuations: Hiren Dasani of Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt
"Emerging market equities, as an asset class, are not seeing inflows. They have seen outflows. The US is doing much better than the broader emerging market. The other dynamic is there is also a very strong AI (artificial intelligence)-driven theme that is driving the markets like Taiwan, which is a global supply chain for the entire AI-related and semiconductor segments"
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Don't see end of bull market cycle in India for next few years: Ridham Desai
Sensex I think compounds at 12% to 15%, but it will not go linearly up and there will be ups and downs, so there will be periods when the Sensex returns a lot more and then there will be a few occasions when the Sensex is not doing so well.
What does a reduction in ticket size of corporate bonds to Rs 10,000 mean for retail investors
The key amendments introduced by Sebi are designed not only to lower the entry barriers for potential investors but also to enhance the overall efficiency and transparency of the bond market.
Large private banks will do well over next two-three years: Sumeet Kariwala
The banks which have struggled to the asset quality cycle over there the earnings expectations are low, the valuations are depressed and to that extent from a stock market perspective the earnings upgrades as well as valuation re-rating can be quite meaningful and we have seen a lot of stocks double and triple over the last two-three years.
JSW Energy begins construction of 1 GWh battery energy storage project in Rajasthan
The project will be developed under a Build Own Operate and Transfer (BOOT) mechanism and will be transferred to the off-taker after 12 years, the company said, adding that it had bagged the project from Solar Energy Corporation of India Limited (SECI) recently.
12 Lessons from Polls 2024
Lessons in governance and strategy for corporate India from the 2024 Elections and the formation of the third NDA government include the importance of competition, cooperation, feedback, communication, supply chain management, consumer knowledge, CEO dynamics, outsider directors, underdogs, and consistent performance.
Failed Wall Street trades rate roughly stable under faster settlement
The U.S. failed trades rate stood at 1.90% on Wednesday, stable from Friday, per DTCC. Market expected a rise to 4.1% post T+1 implementation, from 2.9%, as per ValueExchange.
Wall Street's faster trade settlement sees some temporary bumps
The transition to faster trade settlements in the U.S. faced bumps despite a mainly smooth switch to T+1 settlement cycle from T+2, mandated by the SEC. Market participants anticipated increased trade failures and hiccups in the securities market.
Boom in e-commerce opens door for multiple jobs at all levels
The e-commerce industry is booming due to increased smartphone and internet access, offering a plethora of job opportunities. Evolving consumer behavior and technology advancements are driving this growth, with a projected surge in India's online consumer base. The sector demands a wide range of skills, from tech-related roles to digital marketing and content creation.
We need a clear future growth path to sustain momentum over the next 20-25 years: Neelkanth Mishra
Neelkanth Mishra emphasizes the need for proactive policies and strategic infrastructure development to sustain India's growth amidst evolving global economic challenges, advocating for efficient tax reforms, energy transition, and enhanced construction industry strategies to drive long-term economic prosperity. Mishra says: "At this stage, the problem is dollar shortages and higher rates and therefore the risks are the reverse, but the moment the Fed restarts QE, I think the problems will turn to be on the other side."
Govt's focus on infra development to nurture sustained revival in investment cycle: RBI report
According to the RBI's Monetary Policy Report- April 2024, domestic economic activity, backed by strong fundamentals, remained robust in the first half of 2023-24, weathering challenges from muted global demand.
Sundaram Mutual Fund files draft document for business cycle fund
Sundaram Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for a business cycle fund. Sundaram Business Cycle Fund will be an open-ended equity scheme following a business cycle-based investing theme.
Real interest rates need to climb before RBI's easing cycle begins
Ahead of this week's scheduled review meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, market watchers and investors are keen to know the timeline for India's rate easing cycle. However, the texture - and driver - of India's robust economic growth rates suggest their wait will perhaps be of some duration.
T+0 trade settlement scrip list released: Bajaj Auto, SBI, and 3 Tata Group stocks part of the list
Stock exchanges will introduce the beta version of ‘T+0’ or same-day trade settlement in the 25 scrips in the cash segment from Thursday.
Gurmeet Chadha on 2 investment themes he is betting on in FY25
Gurmeet Chadha discusses market performance, capex cycles, rising retail investment, financial opportunities in HDFC, Kotak, NBFCs, and energy stocks like Power Grid, emphasizing the shift towards equity ownership. He believes In fact, this $3-billion SIP book will become a $5 billion monthly SIP run in a couple of years from now.
Long-duration debt mutual funds beat Nifty YTD. Here’s how they performed
For investors with a longer view and higher risk appetite, long-duration debt mutual funds offer the potential for bigger gains.
All-tolerant Powell sends Wall Street into a buying frenzy
Wall Street debates Federal Reserve policy on asset prices. Traders allocate funds across markets. ETFs attract $374 billion during an unprecedented equity rally. S&P 500 surges 27%. Marketfield Asset Management criticizes inflation goal progress.
Sebi wants stock brokers to use only strong bank FDs, guarantees to settle trades
The plan, yet to be finalised, would entail laying down a minimum capital or net worth and a floor credit rating criteria that banks will have to meet.
Enough opportunities in smallcaps, but largecaps offer better value: Krishna Sanghavi
Krishna Sanghavi predicts India's shift towards manufacturing for export and import substitution will drive growth in core economy sectors. He emphasizes the importance of capacity building to meet future demand and promote consumerism, aligning with the evolving market trends. Sanghavi also says: "For now, largecaps offer as overall space far more value, far more investable opportunities. "
Expect decent consumption growth but investment growth will be stronger: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley
Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley compares past and present investment trends in India, emphasizing the significance of investment growth for sustainable economic development. He discusses various factors impacting the current economic cycle and growth outlook. He also said we should not expect a big acceleration in rural consumption growth in terms of FMCG companies’ volume growth.
Renu Baid Pugalia’s top 3 capital goods picks keeping valuation in mind
Renu Baid Pugalia of IIFL Sec discusses the power crisis, capex, top picks like Cummins, Bharat Electronics, Larsen & Toubro, and the potential in the capital goods sector. The analysis covers private and government investments, thermal power challenges, and market opportunities. Pugalia also says, the kind of certainty of earnings which is there in Bharat Electronics is far superior to some of the other defence PSUs.
Investment cycle, not quarterly earnings to drive volume growth going forward: Mayur Patel
Mayur Patel discusses the positive equity market outlook despite premium valuations. Short-term risk has increased in small and midcap space, leading to potential downside. BSE Sensex trading at 3.7x P/B with 18% premium. He says "quarterly earnings will not be very relevant in terms of evaluating the outlook of the market or the economy. "
India's capex cycle to continue: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley predicts India's capital expenditure cycle will continue, driven by government spending and a revival in private investment. The bank predicts India's investment ratio to rise to 36% of GDP by FY27, from 34% in FY24. The Indian government predicts 7.6% GDP growth in FY24. The central government capex is expected to rise to 3.4% of GDP in FY25, while the investment ratio increased by 12 percentage points to 39% in FY08.
Expect to see a pickup in mass consumption in H2 of next financial year: Ashish Gupta
Ashish Gupta, CIO of Axis Mutual Fund, expects a deleveraging cycle for corporate India in the next five-seven years. The capex upcycle has started, benefiting companies. The market has responded to the strong economic recovery, upward revision in GDP growth, and corporate earnings. The confidence is derived from the multi-year cycle, despite the elections.
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