DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
Why has Kotak re-initiated inflows into smallcap fund? Harish Bihani explains
There is FOMO in certain sectors and themes across caps and not only in smallcaps. Harish Bihani thinks there is scope for identifying ideas and deploying large sums of money in the smallcap category. The probability of any event specific to India disrupting the market is low at this point and they thought that it was an opportune time to reopen the fund
ETMarkets Smart Talk: There might be a renewed focus on social expenditure in final Budget 2024: Arun Kumar Poddar
While we strive to reduce our reliance on FIIs, our Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions are reaching record highs, reflecting growing confidence in the Indian markets.
Cannot avoid market momentum but be a little more selective: Mayuresh Joshi
The entire ecosystem will see accelerated investments and the government push through regarding the capex needs. Also, railways as a theme, defence as a theme, and shipbuilders as a theme will continue. Execution is going to be extremely important out here, says Mayuresh Joshi. He further says the earnings story and earnings growth should continue to remain strong in select domestic-focused sectors
Private consumption seen growing, concerns on capex growth: Morgan Stanley Research
Consumption growth has remained weak since the pandemic, recovering at a slow pace. Private consumption is recovering, with growth is tracking at 4% in the quarter ended March 31, 2024 as against 1.5% a year ago but it is just catching up to the pre-pandemic trend and remains below the pre-pandemic average of 6.3% in 2019.
Deepak Shenoy hunting for winning stocks in 5 key megatrends
It is difficult to gauge changes in core fundamentals in just two weeks, but it appears that there is a level of political continuity that is acceptable to markets. It isn’t just retail investors; by June 24, foreign portfolio investors have added Rs 13,000 crore into equity markets as well. In the short term, the markets are slaves of liquidity, and the inflows seem to be strong.
India's consumption story augurs well for our growth: Venkatesh Vijayaraghavan, TTK Prestige
TTK Prestige over the last 30-40 years, if you were to look at, has been making strides in terms of innovation, in terms of growth. Like in every organisation, we do believe that what has taken us so far here will not necessarily be the right thing to do.
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ETMarkets Smart Talk: We could see tweak in corporate & personal tax to boost consumption in Budget 2024: Samir Bahl
While the expectations on overall economic growth were unchanged, FED committee members increased their inflation forecast for 2024 and 2025 and hence in June 2024, Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 5.50%.
Will prefer to focus on domestic sectors vs external facing sectors: Sunil Koul
I mean there is obviously the broader structural kind of under penetration story behind it, but I think the sector had not done well in the last a couple of years because of these issues and both in terms of numbers but also in terms of the regulatory overhang.
Domestic demand for steel soars in India, country turns net importer in FY24: CRISIL Report
India has shifted from being a net exporter to a net importer of steel in fiscal 2024, with a trade deficit of 1.1 million tonnes. Surging domestic demand led to increased imports from China, South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam. Despite a rise in exports, India faces challenges from Chinese competition. Strong domestic demand and production growth indicate positive prospects for the Indian steel industry. Strategic adjustments are needed to manage imports and maintain export competitiveness.
Elevated gold prices to restrain jewellery consumption growth to 6-8% in FY25: ICRA
ICRA forecasts a slowdown in India's jewellery consumption growth to 6-8% in FY2025, down from 18% in FY2024, citing elevated gold prices dampening consumer sentiment. Volume is expected to contract after marginal growth in previous years. Despite stable gold prices post-April 2023, a 14% rise in FY2024 boosted revenues amid muted volumes. Operating margins are projected at 7-8% amidst rising competition, with retailers expanding cautiously amid subdued consumer demand.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Why FIIs are turning net sellers in Indian markets and it not because of election jitteriness, explains Niraj Kumar
While the incumbent government securing its third term bodes well for market stability, it does juxtapose them with some dependency on allies for imperative policy decisions.
Twin engines of investment and consumption cycle can fire economy over next 12 -18 months: Taher Badshah
It is a nice combination to therefore have look forward to and that is what is keeping the market excitement up. Of course, we have a plethora of important events which we get into in the second half of the year whether it is the outcome of the monsoons, policy on the budget and of course certain global events as well including the US elections, the whole thing about policy rates, interest rates and how are we going to be navigating that over the next six odd months.
Low domestic demand, Chinese dumping depress steel prices
Besides these, sustained Chinese steel output is also eating into India's share of metal exports to Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These are the two most prominent destinations for Indian steel products after the European Union.
Rural consumption and exports should do well in next 5 years: Ravi Dharamshi
Honestly if you want to make money from a five years perspective, go where nobody is looking and consumption which includes discretionary as well as non-discretionary consumption and rural consumption and exports are two areas which I think should continue to do well.
Markets can gain another 10% by year end: Samir Arora
But the bottom line is that this is a big event and the FIIs who have been selling for the last few months are not going to sell like this anymore and therefore you will be in a sweet spot where domestic guys are buying and foreigners are trying to build back their positions.
Icra revises domestic steel demand growth rate to 10 pc for FY25
ICRA revises FY2025 steel demand growth to 9-10% due to strong government spending and sector demand, leading to increased earnings and India remaining a net steel importer in the current fiscal.
Reality behind the 8.2% FY24 GDP growth is not as robust
The 8.2% FY24 GDP growth reflects a modest deceleration from 3QFY24 at 8.6%. Real gross value added growth slowed considerably in 4QFY24 to 6.3% from 8.3% in 1QFY24.
Will FIIs return to India or will valuations still keep them away? Vinay Jaising explains
However, if the count is significantly lower, around or below 300, the market will correct before stabilizing and moving forward. As investors, we are fully invested and not holding much cash because in volatile times, especially when market sentiment is improving, it's beneficial to be fully invested.
Listen closely: From Google smart speakers to Paytm soundboxes, these businesses are thriving in manufacturing
Making for others can be more lucrative than building a brand for themselves — this realisation has created a brigade of small contract manufacturers who are making India’s place prominent in the global electronics manufacturing services map.
Gas needs a new pricing meter
What could future policy look like? Pricing policy needs to be simplified and streamlined with global norms. Ensuring linkage to rolling averages of global benchmarks like Brent or other global benchmarks, along the C Rangarajan committee recommendations, would sustain the balance between consumers and producers. This should be implemented alongside more uniform gas pricing. One price could be benchmarked for LNG imports, another for domestically produced gas from regular fields, and one higher price for more difficult fields like ultra-deep and high-temperature high-pressure fields.
China's factory activity unexpectedly contracts in May
China's manufacturing activity fell in May, with the official factory survey showing a decline. Calls for fresh stimulus persist due to the ongoing property crisis impacting businesses, consumers, and investors.
Bihar alcohol ban prevented 21 lakh cases of intimate partner violence: Lancet study
Bihar's 2016 alcohol ban prevented 24 lakh cases of daily and weekly alcohol consumption and 21 lakh cases of intimate partner violence, according to a study published in The Lancet Regional Health Southeast Asia journal. The ban is also estimated to have prevented 18 lakh men in the state from becoming overweight or obese. The study, based on data from national and district level health and household surveys, suggests that stricter alcohol regulation policies may yield significant population-level health benefits for frequent drinkers and victims of intimate partner violence.
Household savings likely revived in FY24: Crisil
Household savings in India likely saw a recovery in FY24, rebounding from a low in FY23, driven by increased deposit growth, investments in markets and real estate, and subdued consumption, according to Crisil. Bank deposits grew 13.5%, mutual fund investments rose, and domestic savings financed rising investments.
The small-cap landscape, while being challenging, looks somewhat better: Chirag Setalvad
Valuations have moved up but they have to be viewed in the context of the overall growth environment. Large-cap share valuations are at a relatively modest 10-15% premium to their historical averages.
Which companies can benefit from US-China spat? Rohan Gupta answers
Rohan Gupta from Nuvama Institutional Equities discusses the recovery in the agrochemical sector, specialty chemical players' performance, and the impact of the China factor on the market. Gupta says that the companies which are completely dependent on agrochemicals globally, may still see some weakness, like UPL or even Anupam Rasayan.
Government's stance on sugar exports amidst industry demands
ISMA seeks sugar export despite surplus, impacting closing stock projections. Central government prioritizes ethanol over export, aiming to build reserves. Sugar prices rise despite production surprises, with 2024-25 forecast dependent on monsoon.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Why investors should not ignore BFSI & consumption sectors in FY25: Milind Muchhala
Milind Muchhala advises exploring BFSI and consumption sectors amid market correction. He anticipates that in FY25, there wikk be market consolidation with intermittent volatility. He further considers fixed income as an alternative investment and says has been apprehensive of the part of the market where the valuations had gone completely out of whack and the margin of error was minimal.. Key factors include elections, budget and earnings trajectory for investors.
Should you buy the dips or wait for further correction? Amit Khurana answers
Amit Khurana discusses market correction trends, preference for bottom-up portfolio allocation, identifying opportunities in small and midcap stocks, backing real estate, alcobev, mid-sized banks, affordable housing, and midcap cement amid corrections. Khurana says: "This market is moving into a zone which is showing signs of correction. Some have played out and some are yet to play out."
Power demand to grow 8-9% in India, capacity will grow, but cost will fall from 2030: Praveer Sinha, Tata Power
Praveer Sinha discusses challenges in the power sector, emphasizing the upcoming reduction in power costs by 2027-2030. He underscores the crucial role of battery storage in the transition to clean energy for reliable 24x7 power availability. Sinha says energy transition is a big thing because it is the need of the hour with concerns about climate change and sustainability.
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