EM INDEX
Will consumer durables & EMS stocks see another round of re-rating? 7 stocks with an upside potential of up to 24%
There are talks of the budget being focussed on two things, one giving continued push to investment and second to increase the disposable income in the hands of people. The second could be done by cutting taxes or making changes with the tax slab. While many sectors will feel the impact but one of the sectors which may feel maximum impact is the consumer durable sector. Now given the fact that the consumer durable sector has a closed link with the EMS companies, they both have to be looked at together. Check out Stock Reports Plus, powered by Refinitiv, for price targets of over 4,000 listed stocks along with detailed company analysis focusing on five key components - earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum to generate standardized scores. SR+ Reports is a complimentary offering to ETPrime members.
Proxy debt plays may slow as JPM index inclusion progresses
Analysts predict the Centre will maintain or reduce the fiscal deficit target to 5% of GDP in the upcoming budget, as foreign investment in Indian government bonds surges post JP Morgan index inclusion.
Quant Mutual Fund raises bet on HDFC Bank shares, top holding in most schemes
Geojit Financial Services' Dr. V K Vijayakumar anticipates HDFC Bank's augmented Nifty weight to fuel additional delivery based buying, boosting the stock under active funds' support.
HDFC Bank's weight may go up in MSCI index as FII holdings drop below 55%; inflows up to $4 billion likely
HDFC Bank's FII shareholding dropped to 54.83% in the June quarter, sparking speculation of a potential weight increase in the MSCI EM Index. This could trigger significant inflows, according to a Nuvama note. The bank's foreign investment ceiling remains at 74%.
HDFC’s potential weight gain in MSCI index may bring $4-b inflows
HDFC Bank shines with a 16% rally, surpassing Sensex performance. Market awaits MSCI EM Index rebalancing news on August 13, fueling anticipatory speculation.
HDFC Bank shares up 11% in 1 month. MSCI review could be the next trigger
Shares of underperforming heavyweight HDFC Bank, which have bounced back by 11% in the last one month amid value buying by large foreign investors, can jump another 10-15% if its weightage in MSCI increases in August review.
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Indian government bonds join JP Morgan EM Bond Index
EMBI was formed in the early 1990s which has various high yielding local rates indices like the Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) series and the Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI) series and are considered standard benchmarks by many developed economies’ investors, according to a press release by Mirae Asset Mutual Fund.
No Friday blockbuster for bonds on JPM index
Indian bonds debuted in JP Morgan's GBI-EM global index suite on Friday, with the country expected to reach a maximum weight of 10% in the GBI-EM Global Diversified Index over a 10-month period. JP Morgan's analysts expect foreign investment worth $20-25 billion to flow to the local bond market from the move.
First day JPM flows not a deluge, but bankers confident of steady flow going ahead
From Thursday to Friday, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) increased their holdings in the index-eligible Fully Accessible Route (FAR) suite of government bonds by Rs 1,545.16 crore, bringing the total to Rs 1.86 lakh crore, according to data from the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd (CCIL) released at 6 pm. This increase left traders somewhat disappointed, as some market segments had anticipated a surge exceeding Rs 10,000 crore on Friday alone.
India inclusion in JP Morgan Bond index from today, $25-30 bn flow expected. What it means
India, which has been on index watch since October 21, upon its inclusion will have the single highest duration across the index at 7.03 years, with an above average yield-to-maturity at 7.09%, a JP Morgan note said.
Funds circling India debt risk being tripped Up by red tape
China's tax exemptions on bond investments set a precedent for India's sovereign debt market, likely attracting more foreign investors. The hurdles faced by outsiders in accessing the market include lengthy documentation, tax treaty variances impacting returns, and the need for registration via custodian banks for trading in certain bonds.
Gilts to shine brighter from tomorrow
JP Morgan will include 27 fully accessible Indian government bonds in its GBI-EM global index suite starting June 28, allowing global investors to deploy funds in these bonds.
India's JPMorgan bond index entry to suck $11 billion from S.Africa, Poland and Thailand
India's entry into JPMorgan's GBI-EM index is set to reshuffle $11 billion from various markets, impacting South Africa, Poland, Thailand, Czech Republic, Chile, and the EMEA region. With Russia's exit, China, Indonesia, and Mexico maintain stable weights, affecting Latin America and boosting EM Asia.
Bond Street to see $2-3 billion foreign inflows a month after inclusion in JP Morgan Index
"We have a different profile spread across clients. There are real money clients who may be investing in India off-benchmark. Then there will be the passive index trackers who will be the regular ones coming each month and we may see some large allocations come in intermittently. So, around $2-3 billion per month is what we expect," Parul Mittal Sinha, head - financial markets, India & co-head, macro trading, ASA, Standard Chartered Bank, told ET.
EM bond rally threatened as hawkish flags multiply
The balmy days of dovish monetary policy that fuelled a rally in emerging-market bonds looks to be over as central banks across the developing world turn more hawkish.
A welfare reset can erode India's valuation premium
India's market valuation may decrease due to potential increase in government spending on social welfare schemes. Nifty 50 index trades at 19 times forward earnings, 20% above its long-term average, while S&P 500 and Taiwanese benchmark index are also highly valued.
India’s premium valuation may come under pressure amid fractured election mandate
Nearly half of the Nifty 50 constituents currently trade at a premium to their historical averages. Among major global indices, the S&P 500 trades at a forward price-earnings (P/E) of 20.6, 29% higher than the long-term average
Paytm, Canara Bank among 26 stocks in focus ahead of MSCI rejig on May 15
MSCI's reshuffle on May 15 may eject Paytm from the MSCI Global Standard index, potentially attracting $2 billion from passive funds. Nuvama estimates 12 stocks to join, with inflows ranging from $144 million to $224 million each.
Most clients set up to trade in Indian bonds before index inclusion: JP Morgan
India's upcoming inclusion in JP Morgan's GBI-EM Global Index Suite involves positive market feedback and enhanced accessibility for FPIs through Fully Accessible Route bonds, leading to increased interest from investors globally.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: 5 factors could push India closer to China's weight in MSCI EM Index: Hemant Sood
The battle for dominance in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index between India and China hinges on sustained economic growth, reforms, demographic advantage, and challenges faced by China. However, potential hurdles include interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions, market valuations, and challenges in the real estate, information technology, consumer goods, and pharmaceutical sectors.
Will keep India on review for Global Aggregate Index: Nick Gendron, Bloomberg Index Services
Speaking to ET a day after Bloomberg announced India's inclusion in the EM index, Gendron said operational factors being watched closely included repatriation of funds, the time taken to open accounts and the current system of trading hours. Edited excerpts:
Global bond inclusion inflows help rupee buck EM currency losses
The rupee was broadly steady versus the dollar in the past two months, making it the sole developing-nation currency to avoid a decline as the greenback charged ahead during that period. The advance came as global funds pumped almost $5 billion into Indian bonds to position for the nation’s inclusion in global indexes in the coming months.
Won't be surprised if $35-40 billion comes into Indian bond market: Jayesh Mehta
Jayesh Mehta, a market veteran, discusses the positive impact of Indian FAR (fully accessible route) bonds being included in the Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government indices and the increase in FII flows into the Indian debt market. He predicts flows of $40-45 billion and anticipates currency appreciation depending on macroeconomic factors.
Indian G-secs in Bloomberg EM Index from 2025
On Tuesday, Bloomberg said that Indian FAR (Fully Accessible Route) bonds would be included in the Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government indices with an initial weight of 10% of their full market value on January 31, 2025.
$5 billion boost! Bloomberg to add Indian bonds to EM indices from 2025
The inclusion of Indian bonds in the Bloomberg EM index may bring inflows of $5 billion from passive investors and more likely from active investors as well. In 2023, JPMorgan announced the inclusion of Indian sovereign bonds in its emerging markets index with a maximum weightage of 10% starting June 2024, which is estimated to bring inflows of $20-30 billion.
Best debt mutual funds to buy now; how to choose the right debt MF
With interest rates expected to cool down, this is a good time to get into debt mutual funds. However, choosing the right debt fund is a challenge. There are more than 15 categories of debt funds, each serving a different purpose and investor need. We identified the best funds on the basis of investors’ needs.
Bloomberg panel favours India G-secs in EM index
"Following the advisory committee's favourable recommendation, the process now goes to the relevant global index body," one of the people said. "Their product teams are working out modalities of facilitating inclusion by September or October."
MSCI announcement tomorrow: $1 billion inflow expected, 5 PSU stocks in focus
The MSCI inclusion can lead to about $ 186 million inflows in NMDC, $180 million in PNB, $156 million in BHEL, $140 million in Union Bank, and $223 million in NHPC. IREDA, Mamaearth, RR Kabel, SpiceJet, Inox Wind, Balmer Lawrie, Ethos, MSTC, and DB Realty, among others can get included in the MSCI Smallcap Index.
China’s weight in emerging-market index drops to record low
The Chinese stock market accounted for 23.77% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as of Dec. 31, according to Bloomberg calculations, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. put the latest weight at 26.4%, citing FactSet data. Either way, this is the lowest since 2017, when the New York-based firm announced the addition of China’s mainland stocks, so-called A shares, to the index.
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