FISCAL SUPPORT

India's GDP growth to slow modestly this fiscal year and next: Reuters poll

Viability gap funding set to boost offshore wind energy space: Crisil

The government's outlay, announced on June 19, includes Rs 6,853 crore for the installation and commissioning of 1 GW of offshore wind energy projects of 500 MW each off the coast of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. It also has Rs 600 crore for augmentation of two ports to meet the logistics requirements for offshore wind energy projects farms and encourage developers to enter this space.

Don't leave your crease: ICICI Bank asks UPI users to follow cricket strategy to stay safe from frauds

ICICI Bank issued a warning about rising fake UPI payment scams, urging caution through social media. They shared a video advising users to verify unexpected UPI notifications carefully to avoid scams where scammers claim to have sent too much money and pressure victims to return excess amounts urgently. This alert coincides with a significant increase in digital payment fraud cases reported by the RBI. ICICI Bank encourages prompt reporting of cybercrimes and offers tips to protect against fraudulent transactions.

Three state insurers may get Rs 5,000-cr infusion for revival

The Indian government may delay the planned privatisation of state-run general insurers, instead focusing on strengthening three insurers - Oriental Insurance Co. Ltd, National Insurance Co. Ltd, and United India Insurance Co. Ltd - through capital support and business revival plans. The government is expected to infuse about ₹5,000 crore into the insurers this fiscal, shelving any privatisation plan this fiscal.

FedEx eyes fiscal 2025 profit just above Wall St target, shares soar

FedEx anticipates strong profits in fiscal 2025, considering strategic actions like potential freight business sale and ending the unprofitable postal service contract. Despite market challenges, FedEx's revenue grew amidst cost-cutting measures and operational consolidation, reflecting the company's resilience and focus on long-term sustainability.

Pre-Budget meet: Exporters to seek support measures to boost exports

Exporters are set to discuss fiscal support measures with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday aiming to boost India's exports to USD 2 trillion by 2030. This goal encompasses both goods and services, reflecting a marked increase from the current USD 778 billion in 2023-24.

Govt needs to adopt granular approach to support biz, promote jobs: PwC Chairman

PwC in India Chairperson Sanjeev Krishan emphasizes the need for a granular and tailored approach to support small businesses, promote job creation, and ensure inclusive economic growth in Modi 3.0 government's agenda.

Nirmala Sitharaman returns as Finance Minister with analysts' votes in favour of Modi's faith in her

Modi's new cabinet: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to reappoint Nirmala Sitharaman as the country's finance minister signals policy continuity, reassuring market analysts. With a focus on infrastructure and fiscal discipline, Sitharaman faces the challenge of managing fiscal demands in a coalition government. Analysts predict a continued emphasis on infrastructure spending and adherence to fiscal conservatism.

Budget likely to stick to fiscal road map: UBS

UBS predicts that the new government will follow a medium fiscal consolidation path but with a populist tilt in its first budget after the elections. The RBI's higher-than-expected dividend transfer to the government provides fiscal leeway for populist spending, especially to support lower-income groups. The government is expected to target a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP in FY25, aiming to reduce it further to below 4.5% of GDP by FY26. While tougher reforms may be challenging, supply-side reforms like manufacturing, labour laws, and skill development are likely to continue.

Modi takes charge as PM; first decision is to release Kisan Nidhi instalment worth Rs 20,000 cr for farmers

Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the 17th instalment of the PM-KISAN scheme on Monday, marking his first act after his third consecutive swearing-in. The Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), launched in 2019, provides ₹6,000 annually to eligible farmers, disbursed in three instalments of ₹2,000 each, directly to their bank accounts.

Modi 3.0: How different will be the third Modi government

Narendra Modi is scheduled to take take oath for the third term as India's Prime Minister in a changed political landscape. Allies demand concessions, potentially affecting economic agenda. Expectations for populist budget with focus on welfare and rural areas, though concerns raised over economic impact. Reform agenda may face challenges due to weakened mandate, but continuity likely in infrastructure investment and business environment improvements.

India's medium-term fiscal consolidation likely to get more challenging, Fitch says

India's medium-term fiscal consolidation faces challenges with a new coalition government coming to power, potentially impacting a ratings upgrade, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP fell short of a majority. Fitch Ratings analyst Jeremy Zook expects the government to aim for a 4.5% fiscal deficit by 2025-26, but uncertainty looms beyond. The central bank's surplus transfer aids fiscal goals, but a coalition government may complicate consolidation efforts.

Weaker BJP in power won't increase borrowing in July budget, says Kotak Mahindra Bank

Budget 2024: A weaker majority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance may lead to increased welfare spending without the need for additional borrowing, potentially limiting a rise in bond yields, according to a senior executive at Kotak Mahindra Bank . The government is expected to utilize a large dividend from the Reserve Bank of India for welfare schemes, rather than increasing gross borrowing in the upcoming budget. Despite concerns of populist measures, the executive rules out a supply cut in bonds and forecasts the 10-year benchmark yield to remain below 7.10% over the next six months.

Lok Sabha results won't force India's budget to make significant policy shifts: Fitch

Fitch Ratings anticipates minimal policy shifts in India post-election losses. The upcoming July budget will detail economic reform plans and fiscal goals for the next five years, crucial for addressing fiscal metrics, reducing debt, potential deviations from capital expenditure commitments, the risk of heightened social spending, progress in judicial reforms at the state level, and reforms in the manufacturing sector.

Coalition politics, weakened mandate could make passing legislations on ambitious reforms challenging: Fitch

Fitch Ratings predicts that the new government in India, led by Narendra Modi, will face challenges in passing legislation on ambitious reforms due to coalition politics and a weakened mandate. Major reforms to land and labour laws will remain on the agenda, but these have been contentious and the NDA's weaker mandate could complicate their passage further. The BJP fell short of a single-party majority in the 543-seat lower house of parliament for the first time since its latest period in government in 2014.

Lok Sabha Results: Will a fractured mandate for NDA impede new govt's infra and capex push?

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections deliver a fractured mandate, influencing economic reform outlook. Experts recommend focusing on public capex and high-tech sectors for growth. Tanvee Gupta Jain predicts fiscal leeway for populist spending, supported by progress in implementing labor laws.

A weaker Modi government will slow India's fiscal tightening, Moody's says

Indian PM Modi's narrower election victory limits aggressive fiscal reforms, per Moody's analyst Christian de Guzman. BJP secured 240 seats, with NDA totaling 293. Despite this, fiscal consolidation will persist, but populist spending risks increase. India's fiscal deficit target is 4.5% by 2025/26. Bond yields surged post-election, and Moody's sees stable economic prospects.

Modi govt's fiscal consolidation pace post-Covid worse than peers? Moody's report flags weaker fiscal, debt metrics

Moody's rating agency has pointed out that India's fiscal consolidation following the Covid-19 pandemic has lagged behind when compared to its peers. This includes several emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

New govt likely to vote for populism in budget

With the Lok Sabha election results hinting at a coalition government, economists anticipate a populist Budget focusing on welfare schemes for the upcoming fiscal year.

India's fast economic growth lays firm ground for next government

India's economy grew at a faster-than-expected 7.8% year-on-year in the first three months of 2024, driven by strong performance in the manufacturing sector. This growth pace is expected to support Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic record, who is hoping to win a rare third term in the national election. The Reserve Bank of India's record surplus transfer of 2.11 trillion rupees ($25.3 billion) will help the next government increase state spending to boost growth.

Full majority, just majority, hung parliament: S&P Global Market Intelligence analyses scenarios and road ahead for India

S&P Global Market Intelligence anticipates continued policy emphasis on strategic sectors post the Lok Sabha election, regardless of outcomes. Factors influencing voter choices include economic growth, inflation, employment, and foreign policy. The analysis explores three election result scenarios, projecting implications on sectors and foreign policy strategies.

Malaysia targets over $100 billion in semiconductor industry investment

Malaysia aims for $107 billion investment in its semiconductor industry, led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, targeting design, packaging, and manufacturing. The country is a key player globally, attracting major investments from firms like Intel and Infineon.

India to get rating support if it uses RBI dividend to reduce fiscal deficit: S&P analyst

S&P Global Rating suggests India could improve its rating if it channels the record Rs 2.1 lakh crore dividend from the RBI to reduce fiscal deficit. The dividend, around 0.35% of GDP, could aid fiscal consolidation, potentially supporting a faster path to reducing the deficit and boosting India's creditworthiness.