GENNADIY GOLDBERG
Markets on alert for Biden exit as Trump-win trades mount
Portfolio recalibration began at the end of last week after Biden's contentious debate with Trump sparked concerns about the 81-year-old Democrat's suitability for another term.
Debt ceiling standoff could trigger US rating downgrade, TD's Goldberg says
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, warns of a potential severe debt ceiling standoff in the U.S. in 2025, similar to the 2011 crisis, which could lead to another sovereign credit rating downgrade. Despite Congress suspending the debt ceiling until 2025, concerns over rising U.S. debt persist following forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office of significant deficits for fiscal years 2024 and 2025.
Are US interest rates high enough to beat inflation? The Fed will take its time to find out
The sharp interest rate hikes of the past two years will likely take longer than previously expected to bring down inflation, several Federal Reserve officials have said in recent comments, suggesting there may be few, if any, rate cuts this year.
Why higher Fed rates are not totally off the table
Asked whether officials might raise interest rates again, he said he thought they probably would not -- but he also avoided fully ruling out the possibility. And when asked, twice, whether he thought rates were high enough to bring inflation fully under control, he twice tiptoed around the question.
Treasury prices rise as geopolitical risks, poor bank results spur buying
Treasury prices rose due to revised Federal Reserve rate cut expectations from hot inflation data and geopolitical concerns. Boston Fed President Susan Collins mentioned eyeing two rate cuts this year amid uncertainties.
US SEC set to adopt Treasury market dealer rule as part of market overhaul
The U.S. securities regulator is set on Tuesday to adopt a rule requiring proprietary traders and other firms that routinely deal in U.S. government bonds and other securities to register as broker-dealers, subjecting them to stricter oversight.
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US Fed's favored inflation gauge cools, near 3-year lows ahead of rate decision
In December, a key inflation indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve exhibited a further decline, suggesting a reining in of price hikes amid sustained economic growth and a robust job market. Notably positive, a significant metric of price increases dropped below 3% for the first time since early 2021.
Trump's 2016 win shook markets. Traders won't get fooled again
Trump seems to be on a quicker path to the nomination than eight years ago, when he didn't lock it down until May. And polls show it would likely be a close contest between him and President Joe Biden, a shift from his long-shot status in 2016.
US yields slip, despite data, as market sees rate cuts next year
The yield on benchmark 10-year notes fell 3.9 basis points (bps) to 4.379%, after earlier sliding to 4.363%, a new two-month low. The two-year's yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 0.2 bps to 4.885%.
Falling stocks, climbing mortgage rates: how 5% Treasury yields could roil markets
For weeks, traders have been watching for a possible intervention by Japanese officials to combat a sustained depreciation in the yen, down 12.5% against the dollar this year.
US Treasury yields slide as Gaza conflict sparks safe-haven bid
The yield on the 10-year note fell about 10 basis points and futures reduced the outlook for rate cuts by the end of 2024 by about the same amount as the market weighed economic fundamentals against the risk of a wider conflict. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 10.4 basis points to 4.767%. -42.9
US jobs report stands as next catalyst for Treasury market gyrations
Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have surged due to expectations that interest rates will remain high because of a resilient economy, as well as concerns over rising fiscal deficits and increases in U.S. government bond supply.
US Treasury yields hit 16-year highs; technical factors add to pressure
Technical factors, including a lack of clear support between the 4.5% and 5.0% levels on 10-year Treasury yields have also made investors more cautious about entering the market.
Fed aims for soft landing with a rate pause and a pledge to move 'carefully'
That more elevated future rate path reflects that the economy is holding up better than expected in the face of the Fed's policy changes so far: Officials forecast stronger growth, lower unemployment and slower inflation at the end of 2023 than they had earlier predicted.
US Treasury yield curve shifts could be set-up for Jackson Hole unwind
The yield curve comparing two-year with 10-year yields has been inverted on a continued basis for over a year, a reliable sign of a looming recession, but it has steepened in recent weeks because 10-year yields have been rising while shorter-dated ones have remained flat.
A first since 2007: Libor cracks 5% on Fed hike outlook
Much of the recent surge in Libor, which is set to be phased out on June 30, has been driven by expectations for Fed policy tightening. Traders not only expect a higher terminal rate, but the Fed to stay at that level for a longer period than previously expected.
What comes next in the Fed's fight against inflation?
Central bankers are widely expected to raise interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point at their meeting Wednesday, and investors think there is even a small chance of a full percentage-point move.
Fed faces balance sheet dilemma as U.S. economy slows
Along with the contractions, two reports last week that suggested inflation had likely peaked in July took some pressure off the Fed to deliver another oversized rate hike at its Sept. 20-21 policy meeting. The annual U.S. consumer price index rose by a weaker-than-expected 8.5% last month, following a 9.1% rise in June, while U.S. producer prices also unexpectedly fell 0.5% on a monthly basis in July.
Fed prepares another rate increase as Wall Street wonders what's next
Markets have been quivering in recent days, concerned that central banks around the world will push their war on inflation too far and tank economies in the process. Investors are increasingly betting that the Fed might lower interest rates next year, presumably because they expect the central bank to set off a downturn.
Record US reverse repos highlight problem of investing excess cash
The Fed's reverse repo window attracted a record $2.045 trillion on Monday, as financial institutions continued to flood the facility with liquidity in exchange for Treasury collateral.
Aggressive Fed balance sheet runoff could jolt flattened yield curve
Minutes from the central bank's March meeting showed Wednesday that the Fed intends to begin reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet in coming months, eventually reducing its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities by $95 billion per month - a faster clip than when it undertook quantitative tightening from 2017 to 2019.
As Fed meets, investor angst over rate hikes spooks markets
Investors fear there may be still more to come. Some on Wall Street worry that on Wednesday, the Fed may signal a forthcoming half-point increase in its key rate.
U.S. consumer price increases slow in July, signs inflation peaked
The consumer price index increased 0.5% last month after climbing 0.9% in June, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through July, the CPI advanced 5.4%. The drop in the month-to-month inflation rate was the largest in 15 months.
US Treasury yield curve flattens as Fed seen more proactive on inflation
The Fed funds effective rate rose four basis points on Thursday to 10 basis points, the highest since August 2020.
Yield curve flattens as Fed seen more proactive on inflation
The statement sent two-year and five-year yields, which are the most sensitive to rate changes, higher. Long-dated yields, however, have since dropped, led by declines in 30-year bond yields.
US Treasury yields fall, curve flattens after jobs data
The two-year Treasury yield was almost a basis point lower at 0.1507%.
US sells debt at 0% yield for first time since early pandemic
The U.S. government’s $40 billion sale of four-week bills on Thursday went off with a yield of 0%, the first time that has happened since March 2020.
Don’t call it a “twist,” Fed QE rejig will only marginally help yields
The New York Fed said on Thursday that it could make minor adjustments to keep bond purchases proportional to the outstanding supply.
Fed to let bank-leverage exemption expire this month, will review rule
While the Fed's decision to review the rule is a win for Wall Street banks, its refusal to extend the exemption, as many analysts had expected, came as a disappointment.
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