GEOPOLITICAL
Commodity Talk: Gold's 13% H1CY2024 returns robust, but positives priced-in now, says Anuj Gupta
Average returns by gold over the past five years are at 8.43%. Its best six-month performance has been in 2020, the year of Covid lockdowns. That year gold yielded nearly 25% returns. The next highest are in 2024 at 13.26%. In H1 of 2022 and 2023, the returns were 5% and 6%. It has given negative returns of 6.60% in 2021.
The Dalai Lama may soon reveal his succession plan, and it’ll have geopolitical ramifications
What if the next Dalai Lama is found among Tibetan immigrants living in a place China does not control? That would give an entirely new twist to the Tibetan movement, causing political problems for the Chinese leadership
Global sea transport leaps most since 2010 after Red Sea attacks
Global sea transport sees a surge in activity due to geopolitical disruptions and attacks in the Red Sea. Vessels reroute to avoid conflict zones, impacting carbon emissions.
Oil inches higher on summer demand outlook
Oil prices rose on supply deficit forecasts and OPEC+ cuts amid global economic challenges. Traders are cautious about rising non-OPEC+ output. Monitoring includes China's oil demand, the Atlantic hurricane season, and the impact of Hurricane Beryl.
Oil prices edge higher as supply risks mount
Oil prices responded to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, with concerns over fuel demand dynamics. The market saw gains in Brent and WTI futures amidst heightened uncertainties, while attention remained on the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil supply. Anticipation of increased gasoline consumption over the July 4th weekend offered some relief amid persisting demand challenges.
Uniqueness of India's nuclear trajectory premised on principle of 'no first use & massive retaliation': CDS Chauhan
Chief of Defence Staff Gen Anil Chauhan emphasizes adapting to new doctrines in the evolving geopolitical landscape for modern warfare challenges.
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Only comprehensive reform can enable UNSC to effectively manage global conflicts: India
India has urged for urgent reforms to the UN Security Council as the United Nations approaches its 80th anniversary next year, emphasizing the need to expand both its permanent and non-permanent categories to manage current global conflicts more effectively. This call was made by Pratik Mathur, Minister in India's Permanent Mission to the UN, during a UN General Assembly debate on the Annual Report of the UN Security Council.
Taiwan reports large Chinese incursion as tensions escalate
Taiwan reported that 18 Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and 6 People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels were detected operating around the island as of 6 am local time on Wednesday. Five of the PLA aircraft entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), crossing the Taiwan Strait median line in the northern, southwestern, and eastern sectors.
Chief of Air Staff urges prioritisation of modernisation for India's armed forces
Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari emphasized the critical need for India to invest in modernizing its armed forces amid evolving security challenges during the Capstone Seminar organized by the Indian Air Force, the College of Air Warfare, and the Centre for Air Power Studies. He highlighted India's strategic culture, the importance of strategic partnerships, boosting indigenous defense production, and adopting a comprehensive approach to security in facing multifaceted challenges.
US PMI data triggers sharp decline in gold prices
Gold prices surged to a two-week high of $2,366 following a second rate cut by the Swiss National Bank and weaker US data. Traders anticipate a move by the US Federal Reserve, especially after the European Central Bank's rate cut.
China's nuclear force now three times larger than India's: SIPRI data
China is rapidly increasing its nuclear arsenal, now boasting 500 warheads, triple that of India. This expansion reflects heightened geopolitical tensions and a global trend toward modernizing nuclear capabilities. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that all nine nuclear-armed states are enhancing their arsenals, with China and the US notably placing warheads on high operational alert.
Central banks around the world have positive outlook on gold, according to World Gold Council survey
The WGC survey received responses from a record-high 70 central banks. The survey shows that Central bank sentiment towards gold remains very high, with 29 per cent saying they will add more gold in the next 12 months and 81 per cent saying that official sector gold reserves overall will grow in the same period. Optimism towards gold’s future role in global reserves continues to grow, with 69% saying that gold’s share of reserves will be higher in five years compared to 62% last year, the WGC survey said.
Dollar or other currencies? How the US is daring the world to find a dollar alternative
The United States is challenging its own foundations as the world's reserve currency with attacks on the legal system following Donald Trump's conviction. Despite growing consternation, no credible alternative has emerged. The dollar's dominance stems from U.S. democratic principles, but threats loom as sanctions and political turmoil test its credibility.
Learn with ETMarkets: How inflation impacts INR & what currency traders should do?
The Indian Rupee (INR) is influenced by global economic trends, inflation, recession fears, and geopolitical tensions. Traders should monitor inflation, anticipate capital flows, and use hedging strategies in the forex market.
Golden era for shipping seen ahead as geopolitics boosts pricing
Shipping industry in Athens anticipates higher earnings amidst geopolitical conflicts and supply uncertainties.
Charting the Global Economy: ECB cuts rates, US payrolls surge
The collapse of Modi’s support in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most-populous state and a one-time party stronghold, amounted to a collective rebellion from millions of people left behind in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
TSMC says it has discussed moving fabs out of Taiwan, but such a move impossible
TSMC, a Taiwanese chipmaker, discussed moving its fabrication plants off the island amid tensions with China, but deemed it impossible due to 80-90% production capacity in Taiwan.
View: Whichever way you cut it, the economy’s booming and is a welcome gift for the incoming government
The Indian economy is booming with a GDP growth of 8.2% for 2023-24, surpassing estimates. The National Statistics Office data highlights this growth despite challenges in sectors like manufacturing and agriculture.
Pill for China plus one
Indian pharma CEOs met senior officials in FDA and other key agencies to start a conversation. Even if a little late, given the looming presidential election, the proposal deserves attention. The basic idea is to capitalise on India's expertise and infra for manufacturing through financial incentives, tech sharing, collaborative research and tech transfers to expand production in both countries. Pursue onshoring in America and friendshoring in India to reduce dependence on China. And aggregate US, Indian and European demand for certain drugs, as IPA secretary general Sudarshan Jain told me.
US trying to build Asia-Pacific version of NATO: Chinese defence official
A Chinese defense official criticizes the US' attempt to build an Asia-Pacific version of NATO through its Indo-Pacific strategy, calling it doomed to fail due to selfish geopolitical interests.
'3 Body Problem': How many more seasons will Netflix make?
'3 Body Problem' has seen largely positive response and critical acclaim after the first season premiere on the premier streaming platform Netflix. Now the platform has finally shared how many seasons of the epic franchise will be coming in.
Chinese firms turn from ‘Panda’ to ‘Skunk’ as US tensions flare
Chinese investments in the US have trailed behind smaller economies like Spain and Singapore in recent years, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Europe's cybersecurity chief says disruptive attacks have doubled recently, sees Russia behind many
Disruptive digital attacks, linked to Russia-backed groups, have doubled in the EU, targeting election-related services, per the EU's top cybersecurity official, Juhan Lepassaar of ENISA.
Indian weapons falling into wrong hands? Defence Ministry tightens monitoring
The defence ministry is enhancing monitoring of defence equipment production and requiring companies to adhere to end-user certification rules for exports. The sector has seen a surge in arms and weapons production, particularly in response to the Ukraine-Russia crisis.
View: Central banks are moving over to the yellow metal to de-dollarise and tackle global uncertainty
Gold prices have surged to a record high of $2,400/oz, driven by uncertainty rather than demand. Central banks have significantly increased their gold holdings, with a notable shift towards ETF investments.
Taiwan detects 21 Chinese military aircraft, 11 naval and 4 coast guard vessels near its territory
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence reported detecting 21 Chinese military aircraft, 11 naval vessels, and 4 coast guard vessels near its territory from Sunday to Monday. Ten of the aircraft entered Taiwan's southwestern and southeastern ADIZ. In response, Taiwan deployed its naval vessels and coastal missiles for monitoring. This follows a pattern of increased Chinese military activity, with similar detections reported earlier. The tension highlights the geopolitical complexities in the Taiwan Strait, especially following President Lai Ching-te's recent inauguration and subsequent Chinese military drills around Taiwan.
Beyond the clutter: India-US ties transcend ongoing differences
India explained why oil imports from Moscow are necessary to preserve global oil market stability, similarly Chabahar deal is also for regional stability which is valued by the US.
Normal southwest monsoon augurs well for food production, easing price pressures, says FinMin in monthly review
In its review, the Finance Ministry also reiterated its faith in India's ability to deal with adverse pressures from geopolitical tensions, while continuing to make progress on its growth numbers. "The positive indications in the farm sector should help India firewall against any adverse pressures that may arise from geopolitical tensions and global commodity prices," the review from the Finance Ministry said.
Charting the global economy: BOE sends clearest sign yet of interest-rate cuts
Thirteen economies in developed countries were experiencing per-capita recessions by the end of last year, as reported by Bloomberg Economics.
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