GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS
Central banks must prepare for profound impact of AI, BIS says
In its first major report about the rapidly advancing world of AI Bank for International Settlements (BIS)has said, policymakers need to harness its immense power to monitor data in real time to "sharpen" their inflation-predicting abilities. A former Swedish central banker said, "We like to hold humans accountable."
India central bank policymakers divided over rate-growth debate
Internal members maintain hawkish stance on inflation, with Governor Das cautioning against hasty actions for fear of worsening the situation
Rupee sees range-bound trade against US dollar in morning deals
The rupee traded against the US dollar in early trade, influenced by the equity market and factors like the dollar's strength and crude oil prices.
Eurozone business activity slows on French vote risk
Euro-area private-sector business activity lost momentum as France's snap election outcome weighs on firms. S&P Global's PMI fell to 50.8 in June, disappointing analysts. Europe's economy, recovering from last year's recession, faces challenges.
Asian stocks hold on to gains; BoE in focus
Asian stocks paused near two-year highs as traders awaited U.S. policy clues. Sterling steadied ahead of a Bank of England meeting with unchanged rates expected. Central bank decisions from Switzerland and Norway will set the global rates tone.
Central banks around the world have positive outlook on gold, according to World Gold Council survey
The WGC survey received responses from a record-high 70 central banks. The survey shows that Central bank sentiment towards gold remains very high, with 29 per cent saying they will add more gold in the next 12 months and 81 per cent saying that official sector gold reserves overall will grow in the same period. Optimism towards gold’s future role in global reserves continues to grow, with 69% saying that gold’s share of reserves will be higher in five years compared to 62% last year, the WGC survey said.
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Global rate-cut juggernaut is struggling to start
Central banks cagey about joining the global interest-rate cutting cycle may reveal themselves this week with a quartet of decisions in advanced economies.
5 world market themes for the week ahead
Central bank decisions in Britain, Switzerland, and Norway will show the rate cutting trend, while retail sales data from the US and China will indicate consumer health. Europe gears up for the Euros 2024 tournament in Germany. Investors are monitoring cocoa supply issues in Ivory Coast, Ghana, and other countries like Brazil.
Job creation and social spending to be key focus areas for NDA 3.0: DK Joshi
Now, the other issues like external vulnerability, those markers also look good. Your current account deficit is in the safe zone. You have ample forex reserves. So, in this global environment where there are too many risks lurking around, we do not know when these risks will play out, but we know that they are, whether it is global debt or it is the Middle Eastern conflict or it is Russia-Ukraine war, all of these can become bigger problems, so you need to have buffers.
Global stock index rises slightly while euro falls, yields up
MSCI's global equities index rose while investors awaited U.S. inflation data and central bank policy meetings. The euro fell after French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election.
Dollar or other currencies? How the US is daring the world to find a dollar alternative
The United States is challenging its own foundations as the world's reserve currency with attacks on the legal system following Donald Trump's conviction. Despite growing consternation, no credible alternative has emerged. The dollar's dominance stems from U.S. democratic principles, but threats loom as sanctions and political turmoil test its credibility.
Euro slips to one-month low as Macron calls French election
The euro fell as French President Emmanuel Macron called a shock election after far-right gains in European Parliament elections. U.S. nonfarm payrolls data showed job growth exceeding expectations, impacting Fed rate cut expectations.
Charting the Global Economy: ECB cuts rates, US payrolls surge
The collapse of Modi’s support in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most-populous state and a one-time party stronghold, amounted to a collective rebellion from millions of people left behind in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
RBI holds rates amid food inflation fears
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive meeting due to concerns about rising food prices. The central bank raised its economic growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2% from 7%, driven by state investments and broad-based consumption. Despite inflation worries, the repo rate remains at 6.5%. A divide in the Monetary Policy Committee emerged, with two members favoring a rate cut. Equity indices surged, but bond yields rose slightly. Governor Das emphasized India's independent monetary policy stance.
RBI maintains interest rates amid growing calls for easier money policy
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept interest rates unchanged in its eighth consecutive meeting, with some members leaning towards easing monetary policy due to concerns about rising food prices. The central bank raised its FY25 growth forecast by 20 basis points to 7.2%, leading to a surge in equity indices. Inflation remains a concern due to global commodity price increases and potential food price spikes.
Stocks and bonds fall in run-up to US Jobs report
Stocks and bonds lost steam ahead of the US jobs report, impacting the Federal Reserve's next steps. Traders refrained from big bets as equities retreated from all time highs.
India rate decision rounds off wild week
India's interest rate decision and Chinese trade figures are key events for Asian investors on Friday amid global political volatility and stock market highs.
European shares rebound tracking global sentiment on soft US jobs data
European shares opened higher on Wednesday, mirroring global sentiment as a soft U.S. labour market data firmed bets of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, ahead of the European Central Bank's key rate verdict later this week.
Asian shares retreat as investors question US economic strength
Asian share markets weakened as U.S. economy's 'exceptionalism' unravels with weakening manufacturing activity. MSCI's Asia-Pacific index down 0.1%. U.S. Treasury yields fall after weak manufacturing data. Westpac economist Coombs sees market pricing 40 basis points rate cuts by 2024.
Asia shares rally on hopes for more rate cuts this week
Asian share markets rose on Monday as investors anticipated rate cuts by the European Central Bank and possibly the Bank of Canada. Sticky inflation may prolong the easing process.
Charting the global economy: Europe inflation picks up before ECB meeting
Inflation in Europe rose more than expected in May, with consumer prices up 2.6% from last year, surpassing April's 2.4%.
Asia shares drift after rally, Wall Street reopen in focus
Asian shares mixed after rallying, with rising bets of European rate cut and key inflation data boosting risk appetite. Wall Street futures firm ahead of U.S. market reopening after holiday.
Dollar ebbs as markets await key global inflation reports
The dollar weakened on Tuesday awaiting key inflation data for global interest rate guidance. Euro held steady despite dovish ECB comments. GBP and NZD gained, with focus on US PCE price index report on Friday.
View: Central banks are moving over to the yellow metal to de-dollarise and tackle global uncertainty
Gold prices have surged to a record high of $2,400/oz, driven by uncertainty rather than demand. Central banks have significantly increased their gold holdings, with a notable shift towards ETF investments.
Rate easing may have to wait, highlights RBI in its latest bulletin
“A modest easing of headline inflation in the reading for April 2024 confirms the expectation that an uneven and lagged pace of alignment with the target is underway” wrote the Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Michael Patra and his team in their assessment of the economy published in the latest monthly Bulletin.
Asia shares touch two-year top as China plans property boost
Brent crude futures touched a one-week high of $84.14 a barrel in early trade, with the crash, in heavy fog, of a helicopter carrying Iran's president drawing traders' attention to the Middle East. Gold hovered close to a record high at $2,423 an ounce.
5 world market themes for the week ahead
Markets are hoping for evidence that will solidify a brightening global economic outlook, though rising trade tensions are casting a cloud, while G7 finance ministers gather in Italy.
Asia stocks brace for US inflation test, China data
Beijing has already reported a welcome pickup in inflation to an annual 0.3% in April, helping to soothe worries about a slide into prolonged deflation. Forecasts favour further gains in April retail sales and industrial output due on Friday.
China's central bank vows to support economic recovery
China's central bank said on Friday it will ensure reasonably ample liquidity and credit expansion to consolidate the country's economic recovery, which still faces many challenges.
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