GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
Tech boom leads global markets through first half of 2024
The first half of 2024 was marked by soaring mega caps, political uncertainties, and remarkable movements in commodities and emerging markets. From Nvidia's market value surge to Japan's weakening yen and the rise of cryptocurrencies, the period reflected a mix of challenges and opportunities shaping the global economy.
Rich nations should provide climate finance to developing countries: Bhupender Yadav
"Temperature rise is a global problem. IPCC reports clearly say the increase in carbon emissions is driving average global temperatures up. Countries have prepared their Nationally Determined Contributions. India has achieved its climate targets, be it in the renewable energy sector or reducing carbon emissions," Yadav said at the India Climate Summit.
Has the global economic environment turned favourable for equities?
Global economy's resilience amidst crises led to surprising growth stability and inflation control. Potential trade war threats loom, while equity markets soar to record highs, indicating positive economic outlook.
Hot Stocks: 3 stocks that may give returns between 16-33%
Shivalik Bimetal Controls, Ethos, and PNB Housing Finance show promise with strategic initiatives for growth and margin sustenance despite challenges. Analysts recommend these stocks with potential upsides ranging from 16% to 33%.
Sri Lanka survived two tough years of economic crisis; possibly because of India's support: President Wickremesinghe
Sri Lanka's President Ranil Wickremesinghe expressed gratitude for India's financial support of USD 3.5 billion, helping the country survive an economic crisis. Wickremesinghe emphasised a strong partnership with India, focusing on sustainable energy projects and infrastructure development. Sri Lanka recently declared its first-ever sovereign default, but is working on debt restructuring with international organisations. Wickremesinghe is optimistic about the country's economic recovery.
NRIs of the world, keep on depositing
Non-resident deposits in India are growing steadily due to various positive factors, including the impact of the pandemic on savings patterns and stable remittances. Factors such as interest rates and exchange rates have made NRI deposits more rewarding.
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China central bank boss says no major stimulus to boost economy
The country's recovery from the impact of Covid has slowed in the months since it abruptly lifted tough restrictions in late 2022, with a property crisis and tepid consumer demand weighing on growth.
French finance minister warns of financial crisis if far right wins election
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned of a potential financial crisis in France if the far-right, led by Marine Le Pen, wins upcoming elections, urging support for Emmanuel Macron's party.
IMF approves second review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 bln bailout, warns of economic risks
The IMF approved the second review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout, emphasizing the need for Colombo to ensure debt sustainability through finalizing the MoU with key lenders.
Bubble of all bubbles? US economist predicts a 2025 stock market crash, likely worse than 2008 crisis
Economist Dent warns of a 2025 stock market crash worse than 2008 crisis, attributing it to artificial bubble building post-Covid pandemic. He analyzes global economies, highlights economic devastation, and predicts a crash driven by inflated asset prices.
Hindalco defers Novelis’ $945 mn US listing
Hindalco Industries has postponed the proposed $945-million listing of Novelis Inc due to concerns about potentially below-premium valuations for the US subsidiary impacting the valuation of the Indian entity listed in Mumbai.
India’s GDP growth under Modi govt fetched it global fame, but why did it leave the desi electorate unimpressed?
Despite an 8.2% economic growth in 2023-24, India’s incumbent government didn't gain the expected electoral advantage due to a jobs crisis. While GDP rebounded swiftly post-Covid, formal job growth lagged. A rise in self-employment highlights insufficient job opportunities, reflecting the weak link between GDP growth and quality employment. In poorer regions like eastern UP, north Karnataka, and east Maharashtra, stagnant incomes and inflation further worsened living standards.
Energy transition, electrification theme to provide big investment opportunity: Nirav Sheth
We need to look forward to the next big critical event which is budget and I believe that that will set the tone for what India needs to do for the next 5-10 years and I believe that you are likely to see a reasonable level of indirect reforms.
Icra revises domestic steel demand growth rate to 10 pc for FY25
ICRA revises FY2025 steel demand growth to 9-10% due to strong government spending and sector demand, leading to increased earnings and India remaining a net steel importer in the current fiscal.
Learn with ETMarkets: What do global economic trends, and their implications mean to gold, currency markets?
The Indian rupee tends to weaken during such times due to increased risk aversion and capital outflows. A weaker rupee makes gold and silver more expensive in the domestic market, potentially leading to profit booking and increased liquidity among investors.
India seen to emerge as an economic superpower in impending problem-ridden global financial landscape
Global recession risks have diminished, but inflation concerns threaten financial stability. The IMF, World Bank, and rating agencies forecast a slowdown in global growth, citing Middle East conflicts, financial stress, persistent inflation, and reduced international trade as key risks. The IMF's Global Debt Monitor reveals global debt at $235 trillion, or 238% of global GDP, raising fears of a debt crisis. Fiscal prudence may suffer as many nations face elections this year.
IMF, Pakistan make significant progress on new loan, IMF mission says
The IMF has opened discussions with Pakistan on a new loan programme after Islamabad last month completed a short-term $3 billion programme, which helped stave off a sovereign debt default.
'Made in China' housing crisis solution may not be enough
China grapples with a colossal housing crisis, with millions of unoccupied apartments and unfinished developments, threatening its economy. Beijing's plan involves massive state intervention, buying unsold properties and converting them into social housing. However, doubts still persist about its adequacy and efficacy, raising concerns about the broader economic impact on China
Domestic copper at lifetime highs; factors affecting the price surge
Record copper prices are driven by Chinese stimulus, mine supply concerns as well as green demand. MCX and LME futures surge. The Chinese 1 trillion yuan stimulus has boosted industrial metals demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power grids. Goldman Sachs predicts major copper market deficit with US manufacturing rebound.
Can a collaborative approach break the credit rating impasse?
The GSDR report sheds light on ongoing discussions with Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) regarding their approach to various debt restructuring options. It underscores the need to find ways to better integrate CRAs into the debt relief process paving the way for sustainable solutions for LMICs.
Is Japanese Yen a canary in the coalmine? What it means for Bitcoin
The crisis facing the yen stems from a confluence of factors that have pushed the Bank of Japan into an economic policy corner. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 260%, among the highest in the world, Japan has been effectively locked into keeping interest rates at ultra-low levels, near zero, for years.
RBI not likely to cut interest rates soon; how this delay can impact bond investors, what they should do
The expected reduction in interest rates has been delayed, which is different from what was anticipated earlier this year. Experts now predict a slower and less substantial decrease. This has consequences for bond market investments.
Not activating counter-cyclical capital buffer, says RBI
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided against activating the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) due to its current circumstances. The CCyB, introduced in 2015, requires banks to build a capital buffer to maintain credit flow in difficult times and restrict lending during periods of excess credit growth. The RBI has not used the provision since its introduction in 2015. The CCyB was initially proposed in response to the 2008 global financial crisis.
India to remain global growth driver in foreseeable future: IMF executive director
Krishnamurthy V Subramaniam, Executive Director of the IMF, predicts India will remain a key driver of global growth, citing consistent 7%+ growth post-COVID. He forecasts 8% growth in Q4, considering the global economic situation. The IMF revised India's 2024 growth projection to 7.8%. Subramaniam highlights India's digital infrastructure as a model for the Global South, emphasizing its role as a public good. He dismisses critics of India's GDP growth, citing statistical experts' trust in the numbers. Subramaniam also addresses Thomas Piketty's report on income inequality, presenting contrasting data.
China reaffirms financial support for Sri Lanka
China has said it would continue to support Sri Lanka, as the crisis-hit island nation's prime minister on Saturday wrapped up a visit to Beijing to try to finalise a debt restructuring deal. China had agreed "in principle" to restructure Sri Lanka's debt in December, but neither Colombo nor Beijing had given details and the two are yet to finalise an agreement.
Tailwinds continue to favour them; 5 Southern and Western India focussed real-estate stocks with upside potential of up to 30%
This week, two real estate companies announced that they have sold out their real estate projects. What was worth noting, the overall size of the project, time in which they were sold and the price point at which they were lapped up. Both, real estate prices and stocks of real estate have seen a revival for last three years, if above events are anything to go by than probably, it appears that the demand continues to be strong in some pockets. Given the fact that the operating matrix of the real estate industry is such that debt element will present, it would be worthwhile to stay with large players who have either strong parent group or have track record where they have survived the slowdown without piling on much debt on the balance sheet. Also stay focussed on pockets where income profile of consumer is better.
Role of central bank in maintaining funding liquidity
It has been observed that the liquidity controlled by monetary policy affects the returns in bond and equity markets.
Private equity returns plunge to levels seen during global financial crisis
The impact on fundraising is already visible: The median time to raise a new fund is now 21 months, compared with about 18 months just a couple of years ago, according to the bank's research. And the number of new funds raised last year dropped 29%.
RBI Guv reiterates opposition to crypto, days after US permits bitcoin ETFs
Last week, the US SEC approved ETFs based on bitcoin, a move that sent cryptocurrency prices soaring worldwide. Das has steadfastly maintained over the years that cryptocurrencies pose immense threats to currency and monetary stability and could be the source of the next major global financial crisis.
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