GLOBAL INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
Japan's main stock indexes at record closing highs as banks, autos and techs rise
Japan's Topix and Nikkei hit record highs, led by gains in automakers, banks, and tech firms like Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi UFJ, Advantest, and SoftBank. Yugo Tsuboi cited interest rates, a weak yen, and economic improvement. The TSE’s prime market saw 59% of stocks rise, with a positive corporate outlook expected, according to Daiwa Securities.
S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs as data stokes hope for rate cut
Exciting market dynamics unfold as Paramount Global, National Amusements, and First Foundation make significant moves, shaping investor sentiment and market trends.
Oil holds near two-month high on higher demand outlook, possible rate cut
Exciting developments in the oil market as prices hold steady near recent highs, driven by robust demand projections and the possibility of U.S. interest rate cuts. The looming threat of Hurricane Beryl and reduced crude imports into Asia, especially China, add further intrigue to the market landscape.
Oil inches higher on summer demand outlook
Oil prices rose on supply deficit forecasts and OPEC+ cuts amid global economic challenges. Traders are cautious about rising non-OPEC+ output. Monitoring includes China's oil demand, the Atlantic hurricane season, and the impact of Hurricane Beryl.
Charting the global economy: Inflation ebbs in US, France, Spain
With inflation settling down in many European economies, there are signs that central banks in the areas could reduce interest rates.
Tech boom leads global markets through first half of 2024
The first half of 2024 was marked by soaring mega caps, political uncertainties, and remarkable movements in commodities and emerging markets. From Nvidia's market value surge to Japan's weakening yen and the rise of cryptocurrencies, the period reflected a mix of challenges and opportunities shaping the global economy.
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Gold flat as dollar, yields firm; investors seek more US data
Amid economic indicators and central bank actions, market focus extends to U.S. housing data, French employment stats, and Fed rate cut forecasts, influencing gold price dynamics.
India central bank policymakers divided over rate-growth debate
Internal members maintain hawkish stance on inflation, with Governor Das cautioning against hasty actions for fear of worsening the situation
Charting the global economy: BOE leaves rate-cut hopes alive
The Bank of England hinted at possible interest-rate cuts as some officials are leaning towards it, despite keeping rates steady at 5.25%.
Wall Street bucks global rally as bond yields rise
Wall Street's rally, driven by Nvidia and AI enthusiasm, saw record highs. European stocks were boosted by tech and real estate sectors. The STOXX 600 and FTSEurofirst 300 indexes rose, reflecting market optimism.
Asian stocks hold on to gains; BoE in focus
Asian stocks paused near two-year highs as traders awaited U.S. policy clues. Sterling steadied ahead of a Bank of England meeting with unchanged rates expected. Central bank decisions from Switzerland and Norway will set the global rates tone.
Fed's policy patience warranted amid still-high inflation, Collins says
"The appropriate approach to monetary policy continues to require patience, providing time for a methodical and holistic assessment of the evolving constellation of available data," Collins said.
Oil prices on track for weekly gain on solid demand outlook
Oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent crude futures down 0.87% to $82.04 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate losing 1% to $77.84. OPEC+ decision to unwind output cuts after September also impacted the market.
Oil softens to $82 a barrel on Fed rate decision, ample supply outlook
Oil prices slipped on Thursday as investors digested that the U.S. Federal Reserve had likely pushed back an interest rate cut to December and as U.S. crude and fuel stocks rose.
Credit growth in India healthy; deflation risks persist in China: Chetan Ahya
But the challenge we feel is that the structural issue of slowdown in demand because of property sector is still exerting deflationary pressures and in that environment as they are trying to support real growth with more manufacturing investments, it is resulting into excess capacities and continuing to have that inflation in a weaker trajectory.
PSBs lean less on OIS as a hedgeon uncertain local rate outlook
State-owned banks are reducing their reliance on derivatives to hedge domestic interest rate risks, with a notable decline in the market share of nationalised banks in the IRS MIBOR segment. Factors such as liquidity deficits, market volatility, and inflation targets have influenced this trend.
Japan's Nikkei edges up as financials, export shares rise
Japan's Nikkei share average edged up on Monday as export-related stocks rose on a weaker yen following stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and a rise in domestic yields boosted financial stocks.
Charting the Global Economy: ECB cuts rates, US payrolls surge
The collapse of Modi’s support in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most-populous state and a one-time party stronghold, amounted to a collective rebellion from millions of people left behind in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
RBI holds rates amid food inflation fears
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive meeting due to concerns about rising food prices. The central bank raised its economic growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2% from 7%, driven by state investments and broad-based consumption. Despite inflation worries, the repo rate remains at 6.5%. A divide in the Monetary Policy Committee emerged, with two members favoring a rate cut. Equity indices surged, but bond yields rose slightly. Governor Das emphasized India's independent monetary policy stance.
ECB cuts rates, keeps next move under wraps
The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in five years, lowering the deposit rate to 3.75%. The move came in response to inflation uncertainty following a slowdown. This move is seen as the start of an easing cycle, but future cuts may be delayed due to price and wage pressures. ECB remains data-dependent and may wait until September for further action. Fed's stance may impact ECB's decisions.
Australia, NZ dlrs in demand as rate outlooks diverge
The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose as G7 central banks started easing cycles, contrasting with steady rates at home. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain rates at 5.5% until November, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to ease until April next year.
European shares slip as energy counters weigh
European shares slipped on Tuesday as weakness in crude prices dragged energy stocks, while investors refrained from placing huge bets before the European Central Bank's interest rate decision later this week.
India's growth set to get more broad-based, says Morgan Stanley; pegs 6.8% for 2024
India's strong growth, driven by consumer and business spending, is expected to become more broad-based, according to Morgan Stanley. The global investment bank forecasts 6.8% growth in 2024, attributing it to global offshoring, digitalization, and energy transition. Retail inflation is at 4.83%, within RBI's comfort zone. S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on India to positive, citing robust economic growth and fiscal policies.
Upgrade of India's rating outlook reflects solid growth, promising outlook: Nirmala Sitharaman
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman praised S&P's upgrade of India's rating outlook to positive, citing solid growth and a promising future. She highlighted India's trajectory towards becoming the third-largest economy and achieving Viksit Bharat by 2047. S&P's first positive outlook for India, while retaining the 'BBB-' investment grade, reflects successful macroeconomic reforms since 2014, substantial capital expenditure, fiscal discipline, and visionary leadership. Sitharaman shared these comments in a post on X, emphasizing the significance of this development for India's economic prospects.
Sterling hits fresh 2-month high versus dollar ahead of inflation data
German inflation figures will be released on Wednesday and the wider euro zone's reading on Friday, along with the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.
Dollar firm ahead of global inflation data
The dollar held steady on Monday, but was set for its first monthly loss this year, as investors were focused on U.S., European and Japanese inflation data to guide the global interest rate outlook.
Dollar firm ahead of global inflation data
Investors are focusing on U.S., European, and Japanese inflation data to guide the global interest rate outlook for the week, impacting foreign exchange trade dominated by the hunt for 'carry' and supporting the dollar.
Dollar down on profit taking but upbeat outlook remains
The dollar slipped against major currencies on Friday, but remains well-placed for further advances supported by strong U.S. economic data. Markets dial back expectations for interest rate cuts as U.S. business activity accelerates and input prices surge, prompting a debate among policymakers on inflation control.
Gold prices hold steady on Fed rate outlook
Gold prices were steady on Wednesday and hovered above key $2,400 level touched earlier this week, supported by safe-haven buying and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year.
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