INDIA GROWTH
RBI aims to get inflation down to 4%, don't expect any rate cut this year: Amitabh Chaudhry, MD, Axis Bank
Axis Bank aims for sustained growth through NIM enhancement, market share expansion, and compliance strengthening under CEO Amitabh Chaudhry's leadership.
India economy likely to sustain high growth trajectory: ITC
Indian conglomerate ITC predicts the Indian economy will sustain its high growth trajectory in FY2024-25 due to strong momentum in fixed investments and private consumption. The growth is supported by a good Rabi harvest and normal monsoons. Factors like a favorable demographic profile, increasing affluence, rapid urbanisation, and accelerated digital adoption are key structural drivers of the Indian economy.
India's key infra sectors' growth slows to 6.3% in May
In May, India's eight core sectors grew at a rate of 6.3% annually, slightly down from 6.7% in April but higher than 5.2% in May 2023. The sectors showing positive growth included electricity, coal, steel, natural gas, and refinery products, according to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry
Private consumption seen growing, concerns on capex growth: Morgan Stanley Research
Consumption growth has remained weak since the pandemic, recovering at a slow pace. Private consumption is recovering, with growth is tracking at 4% in the quarter ended March 31, 2024 as against 1.5% a year ago but it is just catching up to the pre-pandemic trend and remains below the pre-pandemic average of 6.3% in 2019.
India likely to grow at 7.5% in FY25: NCAER
The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) forecasts India's FY25 GDP growth at about 7.5%, driven by strong economic activity. NCAER's Director General, Poonam Gupta, highlighted buoyancy in the first quarter, robust investment policies, and macroeconomic stability. While the RBI projects 7.2% growth, Gupta noted that addressing rising food prices remains challenging, calling for climate-resilient and innovative food supply solutions.
India's bubbling water crisis can spark social unrest, exacerbate volatility in economy's growth: Moody's
Reduced water availability has the potential to interrupt both agricultural and industrial activities, leading to increased food prices and income reductions for impacted businesses and workers, particularly farmers. This situation may lead to social unrest, further destabilizing India's economic growth and its resilience to unforeseen challenges, considering that over 40% of the nation's workforce is engaged in agriculture.
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Capital goods companies expected to post 9-11% revenue growth rate in FY25
As per the analysis, operating margin could moderate 80-100 basis points to 12-13% in fiscal 2025 as the market scenario continues to be highly competitive and exports remain sluggish.
India can grow at 8 pc if inflation keeps falling: Ashima Goyal, an external member of MPC
Ashima Goyal, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the potential for India's economy to grow at 8% if the nominal repo rate falls in line with declining inflation. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of 7.2% for the current fiscal year.
India's roaring growth may not change the story of its great divide, finds economists' poll
A nearly 85% majority of development economists and policy experts, 43 out of 51, in a May 15-June 18 Reuters poll, said they were not confident economic inequality would significantly reduce over the next five years, including 21 who said they had no confidence at all.
Fitch raises FY25 India GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent
In its Global Economic Outlook (GEO) released Monday, it raised its forecast for world growth in 2024 to 2.6% from 2.4% estimated earlier. India's economy grew 8.2% in FY24. "We expect the Indian economy to expand by a strong 7.2% in FY25 (an upward revision of 0.2pp from the March GEO)," Fitch Ratings said, adding that investment will continue to rise but more slowly than in recent quarters, while consumer spending will recover with elevated consumer confidence. Purchasing managers survey data point to continued growth at the start of the current financial year.
India's world-beating growth pace to continue, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
"In the first three quarters of 2023-24, the current account deficit was 1.2% (of GDP)," Das said. "Our teams are working on the fourth quarter numbers. They look to be even lower, and when you look at the annual current account deficit number, I will not be surprised next week when we publish the current account deficit numbers - they could be even lower than 1% (of GDP)," he said at the ET Now event.
Fitch raises India's FY25 growth forecast but isn't that optimistic about global growth
Fitch Ratings has increased India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 7.2% from 7%, driven by rapid investment expansion. The Indian economy grew 7.8% in the last quarter of FY24 and 8.2% for the entire fiscal year. Fitch predicts sustained investment growth under Prime Minister Modi, a recovery in consumer spending, and declining inflation rates. The RBI is expected to make only a modest rate cut this year.
GDP to grow 8% in FY25 on agriculture, services boost: CII
According to the industry body, the agriculture sector is likely to grow at 3.7% in the current fiscal, compared with 1.4% last year, whereas the services sector may see a growth of 9% against 7.9% a year back.
India to to be the fastest growing economies in ASEAN: Moody’s
In the first half of calendar year 2024, Indonesia, Philippines and India led the way and should continue to outperform pre-COVID growth numbers on the back of rising exports, local demand and government spending lift.
India to remain fastest growing Asia-Pacific economy: Moody's
Moody's said stronger portfolio inflows are likely in India and ASEAN economies, because of robust corporate credit metrics and appealing valuations.
World Bank revises India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.6%
The World Bank revised India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.4%, expecting India to remain the fastest growing economy, driven by public and private investment, and rising consumption.
Asian earnings growth to outpace US and Europe, India's growth momentum strong: Report
The analysis by CLSA, citing Bloomberg's projections, forecasts that Asian earnings growth will surpass that of the US and Europe for both this year and the next. This positive outlook is in line with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) prediction of a robust 7.2 per cent growth rate for India in fiscal year 2025.
RBI MPC meeting: India’s FY25 GDP forecast raised to 7.2% from 7%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the FY25 real GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from 7% due to improved rural and urban demand, bolstered by monsoon predictions. The Monetary Policy Committee kept the benchmark rate at 6.25%, noting domestic economic resilience. India's FY24 GDP growth accelerated to 8.2%, driven by a sharp decline in the GDP deflator.
Services activity growth eases to 5-month low in May
India's services sector output growth moderated in May, reaching its lowest level in five months, according to the HSBC India Services Business Activity Index. The index slipped to 60.2 from 60.8 in April, indicating a softening in services activities due to factors like severe heat waves and price pressures. While domestic new orders eased slightly, they remained robust, supported by strong demand conditions and successful advertising. Export demand also provided support, with new orders rising at the fastest pace in nearly a decade.
India’s GDP growth under Modi govt fetched it global fame, but why did it leave the desi electorate unimpressed?
Despite an 8.2% economic growth in 2023-24, India’s incumbent government didn't gain the expected electoral advantage due to a jobs crisis. While GDP rebounded swiftly post-Covid, formal job growth lagged. A rise in self-employment highlights insufficient job opportunities, reflecting the weak link between GDP growth and quality employment. In poorer regions like eastern UP, north Karnataka, and east Maharashtra, stagnant incomes and inflation further worsened living standards.
India's services sector softens to five-month low in May: PMI report
India's services growth slowed to a five-month low in May due to weaker domestic demand, despite record export growth and a 21-month high in job creation. The services PMI fell to 60.2 from 60.8 in April. Input costs rose, intensifying price pressures and possibly delaying interest rate cuts by the RBI.
Rising heat cools mfg PMI to 3-mth low as input costs bite
Manufacturing activity decreased to 57.5 in May from 58.8 in the previous month due to heatwaves and rising costs, as per a private survey by HSBC. The sector saw a softer rise in new orders and output, impacting work hours and production volumes for manufacturing firms.
Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit may lead to India rating upgrade: Deutsche Bank
A German brokerage predicts a possible sovereign rating upgrade for India due to strong growth and improved fiscal deficit targets. S&P recently upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to 'positive'. The real GDP growth for India has been resilient, with a notable increase in FY24.
Economy expands 7.8% in Q4, lifting FY24 growth to 8.2%
This is the highest annual growth since FY17, excluding the 9.7% post-Covid rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY22 after the 5.8% contraction in FY21. The advance estimate released in February had pegged FY24 growth at 7.6%. Economists and government expect the high growth to continue though tepid private consumption remains a concern.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
India's GDP grows 7.8 per cent in Q4, FY24 growth pegged at 8.2 per cent
India Q4 GDP: The analysts were anticipating a better-than-expected growth for the January to March quarter this time around. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimated Q4FY24 real GDP growth to be 7 per cent while ET Poll suggested the growth rate of 6.8 per cent. As per a Reuters poll, the Indian economy was expected to grow at 6.7 per cent in the January-March quarter on a year-on-year basis, owing to weak demand.
Moody's projects 6.8 per cent GDP expansion in 2024 on strong growth, post-election policy continuity
Moody's Ratings projected India's growth at 6.8% in 2024, followed by 6.5% in 2025. The prediction was driven by economic expansion and post-election policy continuity. The real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2023, with strong government spending and manufacturing activity. High-frequency indicators suggest sustained momentum in the economy. Moody's expects 6-7% annual GDP growth with policy continuity and increased capital expenditure. Private investment outlook is positive, despite inflation volatility.
India's core sector growth rises 6.2% in April
India's index of eight core sectors saw a 6.2% annual growth in April, following a 6.6% growth in March. The eight sectors had grown 4.6% in April 2023. The production of electricity, natural gas, coal, steel, refinery products, crude oil, and cement showed positive growth. However, coal sector output decreased by 7.5% YoY, while crude oil sector saw a 1.6% growth.
India's growth set to get more broad-based, says Morgan Stanley; pegs 6.8% for 2024
India's strong growth, driven by consumer and business spending, is expected to become more broad-based, according to Morgan Stanley. The global investment bank forecasts 6.8% growth in 2024, attributing it to global offshoring, digitalization, and energy transition. Retail inflation is at 4.83%, within RBI's comfort zone. S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on India to positive, citing robust economic growth and fiscal policies.
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