INDUSTRIAL GROWTH
Economy on strong wicket after fiscal first quarter
India's economy showed strong first-quarter performance with surging manufacturing activity, robust GST collections, and record-high Sensex, alongside a rise in passenger car sales and new export orders from overseas markets, as highlighted by industry experts and economic indicators.
RBI aims to get inflation down to 4%, don't expect any rate cut this year: Amitabh Chaudhry, MD, Axis Bank
Axis Bank aims for sustained growth through NIM enhancement, market share expansion, and compliance strengthening under CEO Amitabh Chaudhry's leadership.
Budget 2024: Will India’s robust manufacturing segment sway Sitharaman’s decisions? A look at PMI numbers
India manufacturing PMI Budget 2024 | Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's upcoming Budget for 2024 is set against the backdrop of robust manufacturing PMI readings, signaling strong economic growth. The latest GDP figures for Q4 and FY24 underscore this momentum, driven by resilient manufacturing and services sectors. Amid global uncertainties, the budget aims for continuity, balancing growth and coalition priorities.
Expect 8-10% industry volume growth for FY-25: Mohan Bangur, Shree Cement
So, in the next three quarters, the demand has to meet around 9% to 10% to make up for the lost time. In the first quarter, there were elections, there were water shortage, uncertainty of election results were there, now all those is over.
RIL shares can create up to $100 billion wealth, predicts Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley, a global brokerage firm, forecasted that Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries' (RIL) fourth monetisation cycle could potentially increase market capitalisation by $60-100 billion. They set a target price of Rs 3,540 in the base case scenario.
Heatwaves burn a hole in hotels' revenue growth
Heatwave conditions and the seasonality of the hotel business impacted revenue growth in May 2024, with average revenue per available room growing only 2-3% year-on-year. Despite air passenger traffic rising 4.4%, occupancy rates remained flat at 60%. High temperatures affected leisure destinations, while business hotel demand recovered in major cities. Analysts expect similar trends in June and muted booking growth for the quarter.
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Core infra sectors grow 6.3% in May, maintain 6%-plus expansion for fourth straight month
Core infrastructure industries maintained growth above 6% for the fourth consecutive month in May, with notable increases in power generation and coal output. However, sectors like fertiliser and cement production witnessed contractions. Overall, the growth trajectory in the first two months of the fiscal year remains positive.
India's key infra sectors' growth slows to 6.3% in May
In May, India's eight core sectors grew at a rate of 6.3% annually, slightly down from 6.7% in April but higher than 5.2% in May 2023. The sectors showing positive growth included electricity, coal, steel, natural gas, and refinery products, according to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry
Consolidation push to continue as key raw material gets scarce: 11 small cap cement stocks which fit the bill and may see some action
In less than a month, two cement majors clearly showed their intent. The intent is to grow through an inorganic route. One by complete acquisition, the other by taking a large stake in the company. Another common thing, both of them are focussed on the southern part of India, where the cement companies have a history of being under pressure. So why are they looking toward southern India? The answer lies in something else. It is one of the key raw materials that have become scarce and that is what is leading to a situation where big players clearly know that if they have to grow their capacities they have to pick on companies which have access to that critical raw material. This aggressive consolidation is likely to continue and it is the smaller players which are likely to be targeted.
Auto sector sees resilient two-wheeler growth amidst mixed performance in PVs and CVs for June 2024
Wholesale volumes across various segments of the automobile industry in June 2024 are expected to show a subdued trend. This is primarily due to the absence of wedding dates, as stated in an Anand Rathi report. Analysts predict a mixed performance in the market. Two-wheeler (2W) volumes are anticipated to be resilient, while passenger vehicles (PVs) and commercial vehicles (CVs) are expected to see slight declines. Tractor volumes are likely to remain flat.
Industrials strong, but be careful about valuations: Hiren Dasani of Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt
"Emerging market equities, as an asset class, are not seeing inflows. They have seen outflows. The US is doing much better than the broader emerging market. The other dynamic is there is also a very strong AI (artificial intelligence)-driven theme that is driving the markets like Taiwan, which is a global supply chain for the entire AI-related and semiconductor segments"
India's bubbling water crisis can spark social unrest, exacerbate volatility in economy's growth: Moody's
Reduced water availability has the potential to interrupt both agricultural and industrial activities, leading to increased food prices and income reductions for impacted businesses and workers, particularly farmers. This situation may lead to social unrest, further destabilizing India's economic growth and its resilience to unforeseen challenges, considering that over 40% of the nation's workforce is engaged in agriculture.
GDP to grow 8% in FY25 on agriculture, services boost: CII
According to the industry body, the agriculture sector is likely to grow at 3.7% in the current fiscal, compared with 1.4% last year, whereas the services sector may see a growth of 9% against 7.9% a year back.
World Bank revises India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.6%
The World Bank revised India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.4%, expecting India to remain the fastest growing economy, driven by public and private investment, and rising consumption.
Modi 3.0 growth story, to be continued
The government will be closely watched as it works to sustain economic growth and create jobs while meeting the aspirations of the NDA’s constituents. There will be pressure to allocate more funds for social security while industry will want the government to spend more on infrastructure.
Upward GDP projection and no change in interest rates welcomed by industry and economists
Industry leaders and economists widely accepted RBI's monetary policy stand of no change in interest rates. Besides upward projection of GDP growth for FY25 from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent is welcomed by the Industry.
RBI MPC meeting: India’s FY25 GDP forecast raised to 7.2% from 7%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the FY25 real GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from 7% due to improved rural and urban demand, bolstered by monsoon predictions. The Monetary Policy Committee kept the benchmark rate at 6.25%, noting domestic economic resilience. India's FY24 GDP growth accelerated to 8.2%, driven by a sharp decline in the GDP deflator.
April core sector grows 6.2%, IIP seen 6-6.5%
India's eight core infrastructure sector, including coal, crude oil, steel, cement, electricity, fertilisers, refinery products, and natural gas, grew 6.2% in April, up from 6% in the previous month. The sector's output slowed to 7.6% in FY24, with coal output up 7.5% and electricity generation rising 9.4%. Fertilizer production contracted 0.8% for the fourth consecutive month.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
Moody's projects 6.8 per cent GDP expansion in 2024 on strong growth, post-election policy continuity
Moody's Ratings projected India's growth at 6.8% in 2024, followed by 6.5% in 2025. The prediction was driven by economic expansion and post-election policy continuity. The real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2023, with strong government spending and manufacturing activity. High-frequency indicators suggest sustained momentum in the economy. Moody's expects 6-7% annual GDP growth with policy continuity and increased capital expenditure. Private investment outlook is positive, despite inflation volatility.
India's core sector growth rises 6.2% in April
India's index of eight core sectors saw a 6.2% annual growth in April, following a 6.6% growth in March. The eight sectors had grown 4.6% in April 2023. The production of electricity, natural gas, coal, steel, refinery products, crude oil, and cement showed positive growth. However, coal sector output decreased by 7.5% YoY, while crude oil sector saw a 1.6% growth.
India's growth outlook: Economy to get a blockbuster release this Friday? But that's too late to stream in poll campaigns
GDP Q4: As the country buzzes with election excitement, India is set to release its GDP growth numbers for the fourth quarter of FY24 this Friday, alongside the full fiscal year figures. Analysts are eagerly awaiting to see if the January to March quarter numbers surpass expectations, fueling hopes of a surprising uptick in growth.
Dalal St is likely pricing in a Modi 3.0 but election winners already have a bitter household burden
India's stock market hit an all-time high last week, as investors anticipate a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi will boost corporate profits. However, consumer debt poses a significant risk. Slow wage growth, high interest rates, and heavy borrowing have strained spending for over 300 million families. Despite this, investors expect post-election growth in private capital expenditure and infrastructure projects
India May business growth robust as exports rise at record pace, PMI shows
HSBC's flash India Composite purchasing managers' Index , compiled by S&P Global, rose slightly to 61.7 this month from April's final reading of 61.5, marking the 34th month above the 50-level separating growth from contraction.
Indian economy likely grew at a 4-quarter low in Q4: ICRA
Economists predict India's economy to grow at a four-quarter low of 6.7% in Q4FY24. The growth in 3 FY24 was 8.4%. Agricultural GVA is likely to contract for 2nd straight quarter, amid rabi output concerns. Overall GVA growth expected to ease to 5.7% in Q4, driven by industrial and services sectors. ICRA forecasts FY2024 GDP and GVA growth at 7.8% and 7.0%, respectively.
Expect good response on EV policy, FDI reforms in new govt; prepare for low tariff regime: DPIIT Secretary
India anticipates a positive response from numerous automobile companies to its electric vehicle (EV) policy, according to Rajesh Kumar Singh, DPIIT secretary. He noted that the government has adjusted tariffs to attract manufacturers without direct spending. Additionally, he stated that India might further liberalize FDI norms in select areas under the new government.
Strong growth likely in FY25; pvt investment picking up, says Sanjay Nayar
In an interview to ET, Nayar called on the government to maintain its capital expenditure push for some more time to "crowd in" private investment. Rural consumption has started to see an uptick, on top of the already strong urban demand, he said. Capacity utilisation has gone up to 75% or so, which indicates companies would go for fresh capacity expansion.
IIP growth eases to 4.9% in March but grows faster at 5.8% in FY24
Among the three major industries, manufacturing and electricity recorded a faster pace of growth in March compared with the previous month, expanding 5.2% and 8.6% compared with 4.9% and 7.5% in February. On the other hand, mining activity eased sharply to 1.2% from 8.1% in the previous month.
India's Industrial Production growth rate slows to 4.9% in March 2024
The data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that the manufacturing sector's output grew 5.2 per cent in March 2024, from 5 per cent in February.
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