JOBLESS GROWTH
Economic cracks are getting exposed in the 2024 market bounty
Dispiriting trends that have been visible for months now alongside the frenzy for megacap tech stocks and private credit – are on display yet again. Companies with dicey balance sheets have underperformed anew in June. Equal-weighted stock benchmarks where disruptive AI market leaders have the same weighting as industrial bellwethers have lagged yet again.
US weekly jobless claims drift lower
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended June 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The claims data included last Wednesday's Juneteenth National Independence Day, a new holiday. Claims tend to be volatile around public holidays.
Get on the job of jobs
A thorough assessment of historical and current employment trends across sectors leads to a deeper dive into complexities of jobless growth. Mapping out the strengths and weaknesses of each sector is crucial for formulating strategies to enhance job-creating potential. In addition to understanding the employment-generation capacities of different sectors, India's low labour force participation rate (LFPR) poses a significant challenge.
Rise in UK jobless rate muddies Rishi Sunak's message to voters
In April, Britain's labour market showed signs of cooling as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since September 2021. Despite robust wage growth, the number of employed people fell by 207,000. Prime Minister Sunak faces challenges ahead of the July 4 election. Inactivity rates and long-term sickness are rising, prompting potential reforms. Wage growth remains strong, but the economy faces uncertainties.
In Modi's stronghold, voters chose jobs over new Hindu temple
India's grand Hindu temple opening, aimed at bolstering PM Modi's Hindu-first agenda ahead of elections, backfired as BJP lost key seats due to voter discontent over unemployment and inflation. Despite retaining power, BJP's reduced margin reflects public focus shifting from religious issues to economic concerns. The opposition Samajwadi Party capitalised on these grievances, signaling a potential shift in political priorities away from religious symbolism.
Canada's May job gains exceed forecasts; wage growth accelerates
The unemployment rate ticked up to a 28-month high of 6.2% from 6.1% in April, matching forecasts. The jobless rate, on an uptrend over the past year, has risen 1.1 percentage points since April 2023, Statscan data showed. Economists had said that with no slowdown in population growth seen in the short-term, any job additions below 45,000 people would push the unemployment rate higher.
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US adds far more jobs than expected in May
The U.S. job market showed strong growth in May, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 272,000 jobs, surpassing economists' expectations. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0%, ending a 27-month streak below 4%. Despite recent softening, the labor market's resilience has kept the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates, likely delaying any rate cuts until at least September. However, other indicators suggest the job market may be loosening, prompting the Fed to closely monitor economic conditions to avoid overcooling the economy.
View: Whichever way you cut it, the economy’s booming and is a welcome gift for the incoming government
The Indian economy is booming with a GDP growth of 8.2% for 2023-24, surpassing estimates. The National Statistics Office data highlights this growth despite challenges in sectors like manufacturing and agriculture.
Nasdaq falls 1%; Salesforce shares weigh on tech
Nasdaq dropped due to tech and communication services sector declines, and slower Q1 growth per Commerce Dept. report.
Nasdaq jumps nearly 1% on Nvidia results cheer, inflation woes drag broader market
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq initially reached record highs, but positive sentiment waned after data revealed a rise in U.S. inflation in May. This concerning news was somewhat offset by reports of increased business activity and decreased unemployment claims, highlighting a complex economic landscape.
Gold prices set for second weekly gain on Fed rate outlook
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week, unwinding nearly half of the jump at the start of the month, indicating that labor market conditions remain fairly tight even as job growth is cooling.
Fed's Powell: PPI mixed, next move unlikely to be a rate hike
Though he said "my confidence in that is not as high as it was," given faster than expected inflation through the first three months of the year, the U.S. central bank chief said it remained unlikely in his view that the Fed would have to raise rates any further, even if the prospect for rate cuts has become less certain.
Japan's Nikkei edges higher on earnings, Wall Street gains
The Nikkei closed 0.41% higher at 38,229.11 after rising more than 1% early in trading.
Dow closes up to make it seven in a row, as jobs data boosts rate-cut hopes
U.S. Federal Reserve policy has been the main driver of investor sentiment in 2024. Renewed hopes the central bank will cut rates have pushed the Dow to its biggest rally since December. It closed at its highest since April 1.
'Elevate, rather than bringing the successful down', says Raghuram Rajan as he advocates inclusive growth over wealth tax
Raghuram Rajan, former RBI governor, advocates for inclusive growth over wealth tax, emphasizing the need to uplift individuals for economic development. His remarks follow a discussion sparked by Sam Pitroda on wealth redistribution, with Rajan cautioning against excessive taxation of the wealthy. He highlights the importance of examining neglected segments of the economy and suggests policy measures like minimum wage standards for wealth distribution. Rajan also stresses the significance of job creation for social stability and demographic dividends.
US weekly jobless claims fall more than expected
The latest data from the Labor Department indicates that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined more than anticipated last week, implying a relatively tight labor market. However, some recently laid-off workers may be experiencing delays in securing new employment opportunities.
US economic growth for last quarter revised up slightly to a healthy 3.4% annual rate
The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment in nonresidential structures. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the annualized GDP growth rate to 3.4% from the initially reported 3.2%.
US economy cooling in first quarter; inflation appears sticky
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in February, core unchanged. Producer prices jumped 1.6% annually. Weekly jobless claims fell to 209,000. Fed unlikely to cut rates before June due to inflation and slower growth.
Jobless rate declines to record 3.1% in 2023
India's unemployment rate dropped to 3.1% in 2023, the lowest in recent years, from 3.6% the previous year. Female labor force participation crossed 40% for the first time. Urban unemployment fell to 5.2% from 5.9%, and rural unemployment dropped to 2.4% from 2.8%. Despite this, the gender gap in unemployment widened as female unemployment declined slower than male unemployment. Female labor force participation rose to 41.3%, but their participation in certain sectors, like legislators, senior officials, and managers, decreased.
US retail sales fall sharply in January; weekly jobless claims decline
U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in January due to declines in auto dealership and gasoline station receipts. Winter storms and revisions in December sales further contributed to the drop. However, consumer spending remains healthy with a resilient labor market and rising household purchasing power. Initial claims for unemployment benefits also decreased, indicating a tight labor market.
Job creation lagged India’s growing working-age population: Study
Researchers found that the agriculture sector—though employing the most youth—contributed low-value addition to the overall economy, resulting in significant employment challenges.
US consumer prices rise more than expected in December; weekly jobless claims fall
U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in December, increasing by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, driven in part by rising rents. The cost of shelter accounted for over half of the increase in the consumer price index (CPI). Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core CPI rose 0.3% in December and 3.9% on a year-on-year basis.
New US jobless claims rise again as labor market cools
The rolls of those receiving benefits after one week of aid rose 14,000 from the week prior, reaching 1.875 million. Continued unemployment claims, a measure for hiring, have increased since mid-September, indicating those already out of work may be having difficulties getting a job. In November's economy, 199,000 new jobs emerged, up from 150,000 in October according to the Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report. The unemployment rate also fell moderately from the month prior, to 3.7% from 3.9%.
US weekly jobless claims rise more than expected
The labor market is cooling as higher interest rates curb demand. Job growth slowed in October and the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022. With 1.5 job openings per every unemployed person in September, conditions remain fairly tight.
There is no such thing as jobless growth. If you have growth, you generate jobs & we are maintaining 6.5-7% growth rate: Sanjeev Sanyal
“The world economy goes through cycles. We continue to build upon some of our internal inherent strengths, we continue to invest in infrastructure, we continue to push for certain key strategic sectors where we think we have a strong position in the future and build up strength there for example in pharmaceuticals and in certain areas of manufacturing. ”
US weekly jobless claims rise moderately
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, with initial claims rising by 5,000 to reach 217,000 for the week ended October 28. Economists had anticipated 210,000 claims. While the labor market is gradually cooling, it remains tight, reflecting the ongoing strength of the economy.
UK labour market loses more steam as BoE mulls rates stance
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that employment in the UK fell by 82,000 in the three months to August, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. The new figures take into account the falling response rate to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and suggest that the labor market has more slack than previously predicted.
US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating continued strong job growth and a tight labor market. Initial claims fell by 13,000 to 198,000, lower than economists' forecast of 212,000. Despite the ongoing United Auto Workers (UAW) strikes and disruptions to supply chains, the impact on the labor market has been limited so far.
US jobless claims hit lowest level since February; productivity strongest in years
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 13,000 to 216,000 in the week ended Sept. 2 from a revised 229,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest since the same level was touched in the week ended Feb. 11 and it marked the fourth straight weekly decline.
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