LABOUR SUPPLY SHOCK
Charting the global economy: UK labour party wins in landslide
A surge of Chinese plastic supply is threatening to overflow in the face of weak domestic demand, morphing into a fresh trade challenge for the rest of the world.
The team set to govern Britain under new PM Starmer
Keir Starmer leads Labour to victory in the 2024 election, forming a new government with key appointments like Angela Rayner as Deputy PM and Rachel Reeves as Chancellor of the Exchequer. The team aims to implement strategic policies for the country.
Why disconnecting global trade from China is so hard
There are several major factors that create a natural limit to how much of a supply chain can be exfiltrated from China, even if sweeteners like free land, tax breaks and cheap utilities are on offer.
Credit growth in India healthy; deflation risks persist in China: Chetan Ahya
But the challenge we feel is that the structural issue of slowdown in demand because of property sector is still exerting deflationary pressures and in that environment as they are trying to support real growth with more manufacturing investments, it is resulting into excess capacities and continuing to have that inflation in a weaker trajectory.
Big plate of supply-side up: Why economies can’t redistribute their way to prosperity
The tried-and-tested approach to growing an economy, lifting per-capita incomes and alleviating poverty sustainably, is to focus on supply-side reforms to lift public and private investment. This approach has worked in many East Asian economies and India's historical context. By helping boost investment, supply-side reforms help accelerate productivity, job creation and income growth, reducing poverty effectively over the medium term.
The man who escaped the scam rings of Cambodia
Thousands of workers are trafficked to Southeast Asia to commit cyber fraud on their fellow citizens over social media. Ex-serviceman Botcha Sankhar, who was forced to work in the scam compounds of Cambodia for six months, unravels the modus operandi of this new and terrifying form of crime and forced labour
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Increased female participation in workforce implies prosperity, not distress
Had distress been driving poor people to work, FWPR would have risen fastest for the poorest deciles of the rural population. In fact, rise has been slowest for the poorest decile, from 16.5% to just 19%. It has risen fastest for the top two deciles, from 19.4% and 19.9% to 32.6% and 33.5%, respectively. This is encouraging.
Central bankers' models need to increase emphasis on supply side: Shaktikanta Das
"Macroeconomic models used by central banks so far have mainly focused on the demand side of the economy,'' Governor Shaktikanta Das told the 59th South East Asian Central Banks Governors' Conference held in Mumbai. "Enough emphasis was not given on supply side factors. A better understanding of the supply side of the economy has become very important for conducting monetary policy more effectively."
The world is looking at sustainable supply chain & India has tremendous opportunities: FIEO’s Sahai
The country is insulated from economic shocks or geopolitical uncertainty, says FIEO CEO, asking entrepreneurs to focus on innovation and R&D to counter global challenges.
Core inflation falling, duration of supply shocks getting shorter: Ashima Goyal
What shores up confidence amid high prices of certain food items is that core inflation continues to decline, indicating a lack of generalised inflation, Goyal said.
India, US, 12 other IPEF members ink supply chain resilience agreement
The agreement was signed in San Francisco, where Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal is attending the ministerial meeting of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework For Prosperity (IPEF).
Proposed supply chain agreement under IPEF to help India mitigate risks of economic disruptions
The agreement would help India to reduce its dependence on China. The pact also assumes significance as the COVID outbreak had severely disrupted the global supply chain as most of the countries were dependent on China for various products, like pharma raw materials. IPEF was launched jointly by the US and other partner countries of the Indo-Pacific region on May 23 last year in Tokyo.
FTAs will help India join MNC supply chains: Arvind Virmani, member, NITI Aayog
Outlining the challenges and opportunities before India as it strives to become a developed nation by 2047, Virmani said global inflation and oil prices are expected to cool over the next one year and that will have a positive impact on the Indian economy with an expected enhanced capex from the private sector.
Charting the Global Economy: A surprise from the US & transportation costs ease
While China set modest expectations for economic growth this year, the US labor market showed signs of growth whereas Swiss inflation accelerated unexpectedly last month.
Rapid growth by China & India may not be enough to support global economy: Nouriel Roubini
"There are concerns about stagflation, both in the short run and over the medium term. In the short run, there are three negative aggregate supply shocks: Covid-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Zero Covid policy of China. These led to supply-chain bottlenecks and resulted in a rise in inflation and a weakness of economic activity," Roubini said.
Economic slowdown will force workers into worse jobs: UN
The ILO said deficits in decent work had been worsened by multiple, overlapping crises, including Russia's war in Ukraine, emerging geopolitical tensions, an uneven recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and continuing supply chain bottlenecks.
Asian shares skid on China woes, yen hits 6-month high
They expect interest rates to top out at 5% in the United States, 2.25% in the EU and 4.5% in Britain and to stay there for the entire year. Markets, on the other hand, are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023, with Fed fund futures implying a range of 4.25 to 4.5% by December.
Promote significant reforms going forward in order to elevate growth: Raghuram Rajan
Now the market is betting that this will be enough for the economy to see significant slowdown and that shall prompt the Fed to cut rates soon. Also, I think disinflation is already on the way unless we have another oil price shock or something like that. We will see significant disinflation over the next year.
Global supply chains catch China's Covid?
India's effort to position itself as an alternative export hub for manufacturing is constrained by its dependence on Chinese inputs.
View: For Globalisation 4.0, the world needs digital and distributed supply chains that are agile, resilient and affordable
These 'future-ready' supply chains will need to be dynamic to meet rapidly evolving, and increasingly volatile, customer and consumer needs. They need to be smart to predict, prepare and respond to a catastrophe whenever and wherever it strikes.
Labour unrest disrupts supply chains from sky to sea
The first half of this year brought the additional uncertainty of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s strict Covid lockdowns. With the second half of 2022 just underway, there may yet be another culprit for supply stress — labour unrest.
Automated environments: Scaling up digitisation for a streamlined supply chain
Poor visibility of supply chain operations and the inability to forecast demand and analyse supply dynamics is the major cause of supply chain disruptions.
As inventory levels soar, 50-years of manufacturing and production principles get upended
As the world continues to be marred with the ripple effects of Covid and the conflict in Eastern Europe, businesses around the world are now switching to low-risk models of supply chain.
Global edible oil markets simmer after shock Indonesia ban
Global palm oil production slumped in 2020 and 2021 due to a drop in migrant labour on plantations across Southeast Asia, which led to reduced fruit bunch collection and lower fertilizer applications for trees.
View: With Covid affecting factory floors, supply needs to be managed — item by item, sector by sector
Instead, one could look at the relative severity of the infection and its impact on production. There is some anecdotal evidence to suggest that factories are shutting down because of the risk of high infection rates among workers. A sick workforce cannot be productive. This was rare in the first wave, but bears closer examination now.
Dollar bides time before services data after labour market rebound
Overall, the outlook for the dollar remains solid as the underlying economic pulse pointed to a strengthening recovery. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management due later on Monday is expected to show U.S. non-manufacturing activity expanded at a faster rate in March.
India's container trade severely impacted on low supply, demand this year, says Maersk
Maersk also said that while the exports witnessed a strong rebound on the back of rising demand for textiles and apparel, the imports remain subdued, with signs of slow recovery coming in towards the end of the year.
Monthly wage loss from first 2 lockdowns Rs 34,000 cr: Study
Estimated monthly wage loss caused by job cutbacks in the first two lockdowns alone amount to Rs 33,800 cr.
View: Covid-19 crisis = Danger + Opportunity
Macroeconomic forces are crisscrossing. A debt burden of $253 trillion on a global GDP of $87 trillion will complicate matters. Economic nationalism may become par for the course. The cumulative stimulus of $8 trillion may be inadequate and end up creating an asset bubble. A lot will depend on a second wave of infections as lockdowns open.
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