REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
007 Effect! JPMorgan bond inclusion can attract $2-3 billion monthly FII inflows into India
Since October 2023, non-residents have invested nearly $15 billion in Indian government bonds, including $5 billion through USD-settled, INR-denominated supranational bonds. Starting from Friday, passive fund inclusion will begin at a rate of 1% per month, leading to total inflows of $25-30 billion by the time full weightage is reached.
What would Japanese intervention to boost a weak yen look like?
Amid market uncertainties and political pressures, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida considers intervening to stabilize the yen ahead of the ruling party leadership race. The effectiveness of intervention in addressing public concerns over the weak yen and rising living costs remains uncertain.
Battered yen pinned near multi-decade low amid resilient dollar
U.S. Treasury yields drive market dynamics as the yen weakens, impacting global currencies. Analysts await U.S. PCE data for potential Japanese intervention, while political uncertainties in Europe add to market volatility. Higher U.S. yields influence bond markets globally, affecting currencies like Sterling and Antipodean currencies against a strong dollar.
India can grow at 8 pc if inflation keeps falling: Ashima Goyal, an external member of MPC
Ashima Goyal, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the potential for India's economy to grow at 8% if the nominal repo rate falls in line with declining inflation. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of 7.2% for the current fiscal year.
Real rate of interest at 1.5 pc apt for economy: Shashanka Bhide
Shashanka Bhide, an external member of the rate-setting panel, suggests a real interest rate of 1.5% for India, closely tied to achieving the Monetary Policy Committee's 4% inflation target. He emphasizes the importance of favorable macroeconomic conditions for high economic growth.
We are actually raising the real repo rate: MPC's Jayanth Varma
Jayanth Varma, who has expressed concerns about growth sacrifice due to restrictive monetary policy, voted for a 25-basis-point rate cut in the MPC's June policy review.
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Japan issues fresh warning against yen bears as currency slides
Japanese authorities, led by Masato Kanda, are prepared to address speculative and volatile movements in the currency market to protect the economy without altering market trends.
Deposits in the time of MFs, real estate
Banks are seeking innovative solutions to rebalance their credit-deposit ratio, with RBI suggesting a review of business strategies. Credit growth is expected to slow down, impacting banks' loan-deposit ratios.
ARCs to see 5-7% higher recoveries from residential realty in FY25: CRISIL Ratings
Additionally, recent amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) regulations are expected to expedite the resolution of stressed real estate assets in the medium term, enhancing the overall recovery process for ARCs.
Should you buy a house now before property prices soar or wait for home loan interest rates to drop?
A favourable wealth effect, driven by a sharp rise in the equity markets, is enticing many first-time homebuy ers to take the plunge, while affluent buyers are looking for second homes. If you are a fence-sitter, still unsure about when to buy a house, this market presents a big dilemma. Is it the right time to buy a house?
Real estate sector pushes for tax rationalisation and reduced approval cost as Modi 3.0 set to take oath
With Narendra Modi set to take oath as Prime Minister for the third time, the real estate industry has high expectations from Modi 3.0. The interim budget announced a boost for affordable housing by adding 2 crore more houses to the PMAY-U scheme. Experts emphasize the need for policy reorientation, cost reductions, and tax rationalization to accelerate growth. Industry leaders stress the need for government intervention to drive further growth, including reforms in GST and revisiting affordable housing definitions.
India set for first current account surplus in 10 quarters by Q4FY24: Ind-Ra
India's current account balance (CAB) is projected to reach a surplus of approximately USD 6 billion in Q4 2024, marking the first surplus since Q1 2022. However, the overall CAB for FY24 is expected to remain in deficit at 0.6% of GDP, the lowest since FY17. The global economic environment is showing signs of improvement for 2024, with easing inflationary pressures and robust economic growth in the US and emerging markets.
Thematic focus on infra, renewables and real estate likely to continue: Harsh Gupta Madhusudan
Chinese valuations are roughly half of India's, but Chinese earnings growth is also significantly lower. The China trade is more tactical and opportunistic.
India’s forex reserves down $2 bn to come off all-time record high
India's forex reserves fell by $2 billion to $646.67 billion as of May 24, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This decline follows a previous increase of $4.54 billion, reaching an all-time high of $648.7 billion on May 17. The reduction includes a $1.51 billion decrease in foreign currency assets, a $482 million drop in gold reserves, a $33 million dip in SDRs, and a $1 million decline in IMF reserves.
Yen's relentless slide revives Japan's interest in structural reforms
Japanese policymakers are focusing on structural economic factors driving persistent yen declines, as market intervention has limited impact on the currency's broader slide.
Dollar firm ahead of global inflation data
Investors are focusing on U.S., European, and Japanese inflation data to guide the global interest rate outlook for the week, impacting foreign exchange trade dominated by the hunt for 'carry' and supporting the dollar.
RBI's record dividend invites mixed reactions from economists
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to declare its highest-ever dividend of Rs 2.11 lakh crore has sparked mixed reactions from economists. Noted economist Suman Mukherjee views it as a sign of economic strength, attributing the windfall to various factors such as a surge in foreign exchange reserves and proactive government management. Mukherjee believes that maintaining low interest rates will counter potential recessionary effects.
Forex settlement next step by GIFT to onshore what's offshore
GIFT City to launch foreign currency settlement system chaired by K Rajaraman, IFSCA, supported by RBI and Clearing Corporation of India. System to settle US dollar transactions between IBUs in real-time. CCIL subsidiary to operate FCSS, aiming for operation by October 2024. Other currencies may be added later
India's forex reserves rise for second straight week, up by $2.56 bn
India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.56 billion to $644.15 billion as of May 10, 2024, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The previous week, reserves rose by $3.66 billion to $641.59 billion. The RBI's Weekly Statistical Supplement indicated that foreign currency assets (FCAs) grew by $1.49 billion to $565.65 billion.
Food inflation likely to remain a cause for concern due to heatwave: ICRA
ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar analyzes impact of heatwaves on food inflation, emphasizing monsoon's role. Divergence in wholesale and retail inflation explained by global factors and index composition
China's central bank vows to support economic recovery
China's central bank said on Friday it will ensure reasonably ample liquidity and credit expansion to consolidate the country's economic recovery, which still faces many challenges.
Good shot, bad shot: What you need to know about Covishield issue
Covishield Side Effects: Controversies surrounding vaccine side-effects persist despite Covid-19 waning. Covishield, developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University, faces scrutiny in India following reports of rare side effects. Legal battles and demands for compensation have emerged as families of alleged victims seek justice. Experts stress the importance of understanding risks versus benefits in vaccine administration.
Managing the trilemma of inflation, growth and exchange rate
For many other Asian economies, domestic economic conditions warrant a cut in interest rates, but fears of currency depreciation could hold their central banks back. If private investment and consumption are the next growth engines, will lower interest rates help?
Clout of Indian bonds takes a lift in Asian bond portfolios, says Morningstar report
The inclusion of Indian local currency sovereign bonds into its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) along with UOB Asset Management's launch of an India-focused bond fund is a strong indication of the changing trends that are now favouring the local bond markets.
Navigating economic horizons: RBI's role in FY 2024-2025
RBI's nuanced approach in FY 2024-2025 balances growth, inflation, and stability. Expect cautious yet proactive policy rates. Strategic reserves, global index inclusion, and fiscal discipline shape India's economic landscape.
We need a clear future growth path to sustain momentum over the next 20-25 years: Neelkanth Mishra
Neelkanth Mishra emphasizes the need for proactive policies and strategic infrastructure development to sustain India's growth amidst evolving global economic challenges, advocating for efficient tax reforms, energy transition, and enhanced construction industry strategies to drive long-term economic prosperity. Mishra says: "At this stage, the problem is dollar shortages and higher rates and therefore the risks are the reverse, but the moment the Fed restarts QE, I think the problems will turn to be on the other side."
Buying a home in Dubai? Do a FEMA reality check
Navigating property purchases in Dubai can be a regulatory maze for Indians due to foreign exchange laws. Deals offering easy payment plans with instalments over years may violate FEMA. Regulations permit remittance of $250,000 per individual annually for property purchases abroad. However, transactions involving 'instalments' create obligations in foreign exchange, potentially breaching FEMA rules.
Residential housing demand and price growth to moderate in FY25: Ind-Ra
The residential real estate sector is projected to maintain stable absorption and prices in FY25, supported by favorable affordability and stable interest rates. Despite the likelihood of a slowdown compared to the high base of FY24, significant growth was recorded in 9MFY24, with sales growth exceeding 25% y-o-y for the top eight real estate clusters. India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has a neutral outlook for FY25, expecting pre-sales growth to moderate to 8%-10% y-o-y. Inventory levels have risen in the premium and luxury segments, with a 5% expected growth in property prices for FY25.
Real interest rates need to climb before RBI's easing cycle begins
Ahead of this week's scheduled review meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, market watchers and investors are keen to know the timeline for India's rate easing cycle. However, the texture - and driver - of India's robust economic growth rates suggest their wait will perhaps be of some duration.
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