CASHTHECHAOS
Strategy is to be ready to sell if the critical support breaks at 21,770 : Jai Bala
Jai Bala advises caution in the market due to the potential break of critical support at 21,770, emphasizing the importance of monitoring specific bullish names and being ready to act accordingly.
We’re probably in last stretch of bull run for 2023; great potential for reversal in Bank Nifty around 49K: Jai Bala
Jai Bala says: “The largecaps are leading from the front. If you look at the smallcaps, we have seen some sort of an exhaustive move. We need confirmation that the midcaps and smallcaps have topped if they drop below the 21st of December low. We still have not got that. But if you see today's market move, the smallcaps are not pushing towards record highs, but they are near about it.”
Have patience and hold cash, market going to drop to 18,500 at least: Jai Bala
“When the market gets to about 18,500 to 18,400, I will evaluate the market at that point. That will be a decision point for me. It does look like the markets are going to drop below the 2022 low. But at the moment, I will keep that as an evaluator.”
Market may revert to 18,800-18,700 range & touch a new high around Diwali: Jai Bala
According to Jai Bala, the Indian 10-year yields are set to increase, impacting the negative impact on bond holdings for Indian banks. Bala predicts a short-term pullback around 7.06-7.04%, followed by a sharp hardening of the Indian 10-year yields. He believes the market will drop back to the prior record high range around 18,800, 18,700 before rebounding to fresh record highs around the October-November time period.
3 sectors Jai Bala is bullish on for near term
So, that is a positive and a negative. Positive because that shows a lot of bullishness but negative because the markets are overstretched and overdoing it and it breeds a lot of excess optimism
3 stocks Jai Bala is bullish on for near term
SBI has actually broken down. It should not have traded below 563 and it has traded below it. And it was pretty obvious to me that the move from the March lows was only a corrective move.
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Gear up for a lot more downside; minimum a Nifty move below 15,183: Jai Bala
Jai Bala says the markets are in a bear grip and there is a lot of downside to work with. The next significant support for the Nifty is about 16,750, but that is going to give way. From a medium-term picture, the market needs to go below the June 2022 low of 15,183 that will make the market complete its structure.
Market in an accelerator phase of decline; take a hit and get out: Jai Bala
"The market is in a decline and multiple sectors are breaking down. Reliance, banks, and IT are leading the way down. IT is on tenterhooks and Nifty IT cannot afford to go much below where it is right now. Multiple sectors are breaking down at this point. If we have a close at these levels, Reliance, banks, and IT could be leading the way down. Investors should cut out of all long positions, take a hit, and get out."
Adani Group share clues can be seen in surging options market
Six of the group’s 10 stocks slid Monday, increasing losses since US short-seller Hindenburg Research made fraud allegations against the conglomerate on Jan. 24 to about $117 billion. Billionaire Gautam Adani and his family have prepaid $1.11 billion of borrowings backed by shares to ease investor concerns, the group said in a statement Monday.
Too early to call for bottom as market to go below June lows; save cash: Jai Bala
“The trend is firmly down and the nearest important level for me is 17,428 on the Nifty spot. So, if the market sprints to 17,428 not even a close just a print, it will confirm and extinguish all remaining hopes for the bulls that the market is headed for below the June 2022 low.”
Market poised to go quite a bit lower; put protection between now and February: Jai Bala
"Definitely cover some portion but do not cover the entire portion because it is difficult to now completely come to the conclusion that we are going to see a huge rise. But definitely leave some part of your short position and at the same time cover partially. I am not sure which way the market is going to take, but definitely the overall outlook is bearish."
Bears score a century! 120 stocks on BSE 500 clock double-digit weekly losses
The euphoria around a Santa rally on Dalal Street fizzled out as bears planned a surprise party for themselves.
Market crash a part of correction that started in October 2021; Nifty may end below June lows of 15,100: Jai Bala
“Coming to Santa Claus rally or even pre-Budget rally, sometimes the seasonalities get reversed and fail to happen. If markets were to come to 17,500, it may coincide with the pre Budget rally and it could be a weak one this time. I see the markets trending lower in the short term. It could be something like 17,500 to 18,100.”
If Nifty breaks below 18,130, we may go below June lows, says Jai Bala
"Nifty Smallcap 50 and the Nifty Smallcap 250 they are off the all time highs from somewhere between 8% and 21% depending on which index one is looking at. They have already been underperforming and once the heavyweights start dragging the markets lower, the underperformance of the broader markets will continue. Once things start turning down for the largecaps, the selling in the broader markets could get more intense."
Want to play on the long side? Go for bank and logistics stocks: Jai Bala
“To me, it still looks like a corrective trend and within that, the market is trying to push towards an all-time high. The market is alright as long as it stays above 17,969 as below that, things start to get weakish for the Indian market. But as long as that is happening, the short term is higher for the Indian market.”
Jai Bala on when we will see the next big market correction
“The Indian market is slightly outperforming the world markets and I do not think that it is sustainable.In the extreme short term, market going to go very close to the record highs registered in October 2021 or slightly exceed that. Then it is going to begin a larger correction.”
[email protected] very much on table but may not go lower: Jai Bala
“I will keep pharma and IT on radar. IT is looking more promising than pharma so on a ranking scale, IT first and then pharma next but pharma needs to confirm from a market perspective on the price charts that it is reversing from there. Nifty Smallcap is nearing support at about 8,200. If it tries to hold then we can explore possibilities out there but that will be just a trading play and not an investment play.”
This market needs to get close to 14,000 but expect an intermediate bounce: Jai Bala
“This market needs to get somewhere close to 14,000 before we can think of the bull market that started in March 2020 resumeing. So until that point, more pains are ahead but we will have an intermediate bounce one more time which will be a little bigger than what we saw between May and June.”
Next round of downtrend may have begun; India to slightly underperform world markets: Jai Bala
“ The fact that the market did not go above 16,825 opens the possibility that the next leg of the downtrend has begun. If we see a close below 16,400 it increases the odds that the downtrend has resumed even higher. I would have preferred the market to go a little higher somewhere close to 17,000 but the fact that the market did not cross 16,825, is driving a very important message..”
A short-term bounce likely before Nifty heads for 14,000: Jai Bala
“The Indian market needs to go below the March low for it to find its footing but there is a possibility that it could stretch to 15,400 in the short term bounce over the next four to six weeks and make people forget what has happened over the last several months and then once again the larger decline to 14,000 that I spoke about since November is going to take place.”
Expect Nifty to drop to 14,000 before this correction ends: Jai Bala
“We have not seen panic selling yet. Coming to the Indian Nifty, I expect it to drop to somewhere close to 14,000 before this correction comes to an end. Maybe we can evaluate if it can go a little lower but at the moment, these are the minimum price adjectives.”
Too early to start nibbling, let the downsides play first: Jai Bala
“This bull market correction in 2022 is likely to last at least for another couple of quarters. We will have intermittent bounces that will make the market volatile. The theme is an overall correction for 2022, but the bull market is intact. When the markets undergo correction, one must have cash to implement at lower levels.”
Expect a short term bounce followed by bigger selloff in Jan: Jai Bala
“The secular bull market is going to last for probably the next couple of years but it is going to cause a lot of pain for the next two quarters.”
If Nifty goes below 17,250, the correction can get deeper; better raise some cash: Jai Bala
“If the market were to break any levels below 17,250, the correction can get deeper. At the moment, I am not envisaging that but if it does that we should be prepared for a deeper correction.”
Nifty may hit 11,600 if it crosses key resistance level of 11,225: Jai Bala
‘The emerging markets are having a great run because of the dollar weakness’
Expect bank index to retest March lows: Jai Bala
‘Pain is coming from IndusInd Bank, which carries a reasonable weight in the index’
Downside potential for the market is at least 4700 from a 3-6 months basis: Jai Bala, Technical Analyst, Cashthechaos.com
Jai Bala, Technical Analyst, Cashthechaos.com in an interview with ET Now talks about his outlook on markets and investment strategies.
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