Gear up for a lot more downside; minimum a Nifty move below 15,183: Jai Bala

"From a medium-term picture, I have been projecting that the structure for the market that started from 18,604 in October 2021 is incomplete. So the market needs to go below the June 2022 low of 15183 that will make the market complete its structure. But in my opinion, we got a lot more downsides to work with but the minimum is a move below 15,183," says Jai Bala, Chief Market Technician, Cashthechaos.com


There is definitely a bear grip on the markets. We have breached the 17,000 mark and we are getting to see that happen after October 2022. What according to you are the next levels to be watched out for when it comes to Nifty and were you expecting this fall to happen and how sharper could it get from here on?
The next significant support for Nifty is about 16,750. There is a minor support at about 16,900 but that is going to give way. I have been warning that this kind of steep fall is going to happen for quite a few months now and from a medium-term picture, I have been projecting that the structure for the market that started from 18,604 in October 2021 is incomplete.

So the market needs to go below the June 2022 low of 15183 that will make the market complete its structure. But in my opinion, we got a lot more downsides to work with but the minimum is a move below 15,183.

There are a lot of negative global news flows on banking space. What is your take on Bank Nifty and how much more pain that index is yet to see?
The banking index has had a fresh breakdown yesterday. It was consolidating in a narrow 5,000 point range and that range has broken down and we got much more downsides to work with for the banking sector. Pivotals like SBI, ICICI and Kotak are all forming a big negative pattern. I know people have been trapped with thinking that the banking index did not break the budget day low, so it is bullish.

I had warned that it was a misconception and the market has proved me right. In the near term, the banking index will touch support closer to 37,000 and longer term, it will probably go closer to the June 2022 low. But from a relative sense, the banking index can be slightly better off in the medium term. It need not break the June 2022 low but it can go closer to it.

From that sense, it can outperform slightly but even that has got a considerable amount of downside.