GDP DECLINE
Savings down, financial liabilities up: RBI says household debt warrants close monitoring
The Reserve Bank of India highlighted rising household financial liabilities post-Covid, with overall savings dropping to 18.4% of GDP in FY23 from an average of 20% between 2013-22. Household debt, driven by increased retail loans, is mostly held by prime credit quality borrowers. Savings are now shifting towards physical assets and non-bank investments.
Fall in Household Financial Savings actually a worry
The Reserve Bank of India has warned that household debt needs close monitoring due to a decline in overall household savings to 18.4% of GDP in FY2022-23, and an increasing trend in financial liabilities. The share of net financial savings in total household savings has been declining, with 28.5 per cent in 2022-23.
Majority of Indian employers plans to add staff in first six months of FY25: Survey
The Indian employment market is expected to expand by more than 6% in the first half of the fiscal year, driven by a positive economic climate across 23 industries, according to TeamLease Services' Employment Outlook Report for H1 FY25. The report, which surveyed 1,417 employers in 20 cities, found that 56% of employers plan to grow their workforce in the coming months, 23% expect to maintain current levels, and 21% foresee a decline in staff numbers.
Gold prices hover near two-week low on firm dollar, yields
Gold prices reflect global economic uncertainties amidst discussions on interest rates by central banks, impacting market sentiments. The interplay between various economic indicators and policy decisions continues to shape the trajectory of gold as an investment choice.
External debt up 6 per cent to $663 billion as of March 2024
In March 2024, India's external debt reached $663.8 billion, showing a $39.7 billion increase from the previous year. The valuation effect and a decline in short-term debt share contributed to this change, with debt service ratio rising to 6.7% of current receipts. Additionally, the ratio of international financial assets to liabilities increased to 74.0%.
India’s external debt stands $663.8 billion at end-March 2024, rise of $39.7 billion from year before
Exploring India's external debt dynamics, the recent data highlights a growing financial obligation, with varying debt compositions dominated by US dollar-denominated debt. Analyzing the trend pre and post-pandemic offers insights for strategic debt management and economic resilience.
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India can grow at 8 pc if inflation keeps falling: Ashima Goyal, an external member of MPC
Ashima Goyal, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the potential for India's economy to grow at 8% if the nominal repo rate falls in line with declining inflation. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of 7.2% for the current fiscal year.
US PMI data triggers sharp decline in gold prices
Gold prices surged to a two-week high of $2,366 following a second rate cut by the Swiss National Bank and weaker US data. Traders anticipate a move by the US Federal Reserve, especially after the European Central Bank's rate cut.
States hike in healthcare expenditure to help meet India's '2.5% of GDP' target
India's expenditure on health, including clean water and sanitation, is on track to reach the target of 2.5% of GDP by 2024-25. States have surpassed the Centre's allocation to achieve a combined effort of 2.13% of GDP. Despite concerns over declining spending on healthcare systems, increased state allocations may help reach the 2.5% target by 2025.
Get on the job of jobs
A thorough assessment of historical and current employment trends across sectors leads to a deeper dive into complexities of jobless growth. Mapping out the strengths and weaknesses of each sector is crucial for formulating strategies to enhance job-creating potential. In addition to understanding the employment-generation capacities of different sectors, India's low labour force participation rate (LFPR) poses a significant challenge.
Govt mulls more frequent job data surveys
India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is considering increasing the frequency of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) from quarterly urban unemployment data to monthly, and shifting the release of rural employment data from annual to quarterly. Officials are also discussing revising the base year for gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation. These efforts aim to leverage technology to enhance efficiency and reduce data lag, ensuring compliance with international standards.
US retail sales rise 0.1% in May; miss monthly expectations
US retail sales increased by 0.1% in May, lower gasoline prices affected service station receipts. Sales growth slowed due to high prices and interest rates, impacting discretionary spending. Banks tightened credit access for lower income borrowers struggling with loan payments.
Japan's economy is shrinking, although slightly less than previously thought
Japan GDP growth: Revised government data shows Japan's economy shrank at an annual rate of 1.8%, an improvement from the initial estimate of 2.0%. Private sector investments were revised to minus 0.4%. Weak consumer spending, a depreciating yen, and a scandal involving improper vehicle tests at major automakers are among the challenges faced. The Bank of Japan's next move is closely watched.
Expect repo rate cut only in October RBI policy meeting: SBI Research
The report, authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI's Group Chief Economic Adviser, expects first repo rate cut in October meeting. The repo rate is the rate of interest at which the RBI lends to other banks.
As Modi 3.0 begins, where the economy stands, where it's headed
Narendra Modi is set to begin his third term as PM with a full-strength NDA team, amidst optimism for India's economic future. RBI Governor Shantikanta Das highlighted the country's robust economic growth, strong manufacturing sector, recovering rural demand, and promising investment activity. India's external sector remains resilient, with positive growth prospects ahead.
A 1°C rise in global temperature causes a 12% decline in world GDP: Adrien Bilal
Adrien Bilal discusses the macroeconomic impacts of global temperature rises in the Anthropocene with Srijana Mitra Das at Harvard University.
Macro policy choices unclear, but work cut out on reforms agenda
In FY24, nominal GDP grew 9.6%, CPI inflation recorded 5.4%, and real GDP growth was estimated at 8.2%.
Reality behind the 8.2% FY24 GDP growth is not as robust
The 8.2% FY24 GDP growth reflects a modest deceleration from 3QFY24 at 8.6%. Real gross value added growth slowed considerably in 4QFY24 to 6.3% from 8.3% in 1QFY24.
Rupee surges 38 paise to 83.04 against US dollar in early trade
The rupee strengthened to a three-month high of 83.04 against the US dollar on Monday, supported by positive sentiment in domestic equity markets fueled by strong macroeconomic data and exit poll results favoring PM Narendra Modi's government.
Auto sales enter slow lane in May, expected to bounce back in the festive season
In May, automobile sales slowed down due to heatwaves, election uncertainties, and a high base effect. Maruti Suzuki's sales grew 4.4% year-on-year, but this was lower than the 13.8% growth seen in May 2023. Hyundai Motor India and Tata Motors also saw modest growth, while Mahindra and Mahindra and Toyota India experienced significant increases in sales. Industry leaders expect a sales rebound post-election and with a good monsoon forecast. The auto sector's growth aligns with India's 8.2% GDP rise in 2023-24.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
Bulls back in action! Sensex rises after 5-day hiatus, surges 500 points; Nifty above 22,600
Indian benchmark equity indices opened higher on Friday. Investors await exit polls post-elections and GDP data release. India's fourth-domestic quarter GDP data is due later in the day.
Financial frauds declined by 46.7 per cent during 2023-24: RBI annual report
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported a 46.7% drop in fraud value for 2023-24 compared to the previous year. Private-sector banks reported the most frauds, mainly small digital payment frauds, while public-sector banks had the highest fraud value, primarily in loans. The report highlights a focus on regulation, supervision, and financial stability for 2024-25, including enhancing cyber response and using AI to prevent fraud. It also notes India's robust economic growth, with strong macroeconomic fundamentals and significant capital expenditure planned. The Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana extension will bolster food security.
Banks' credit growth in FY25 to slow down to 14% on lower GDP uptick, RBI measures: Crisil
Crisil forecasts a 2 percentage point drop in the banking system's credit growth to 14% for the fiscal year 2024-25, citing factors such as lower GDP growth, RBI measures like higher risk weights on unsecured loans, and a high base effect. Slower deposit growth is expected to temper credit expansion, though the fundamental drivers of credit demand remain intact. While corporate segment growth is projected to maintain at 13%, retail growth will slow to 16%.
UK recovering faster than expected after slipping into technical recession: IMF
The UK economy is approaching a soft landing, with a recovery in growth expected in 2024, strengthening in 2025, IMF said. Soft landing in economic parlance is managing inflation at comfortable levels without hurting economic growth.
India seen to emerge as an economic superpower in impending problem-ridden global financial landscape
Global recession risks have diminished, but inflation concerns threaten financial stability. The IMF, World Bank, and rating agencies forecast a slowdown in global growth, citing Middle East conflicts, financial stress, persistent inflation, and reduced international trade as key risks. The IMF's Global Debt Monitor reveals global debt at $235 trillion, or 238% of global GDP, raising fears of a debt crisis. Fiscal prudence may suffer as many nations face elections this year.
Compensation gap between private & public sector widens in FY23
Total compensation of employees working with private corporations increased to 13.5% of the GDP in FY23 from 12.8% in the previous year while households, which largely represent the informal sector, saw their wages rise to the highest level in nine years to 8.5% of the GDP in FY23 from 8.4% in FY22.
UN revises India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9%
“India’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2024 and 6.6 per cent in 2025,29 mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption,” the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said.
Household savings at five-decade low: A look at key numbers
Households' net financial savings decreased to the lowest level in five decades, amounting to 5.3% of GDP in FY23, down from 7.3% in the previous fiscal year, as reported by the national accounts statistics released on Monday. Economists had identified the increase in household borrowings as the cause for the decline when the initial data was published in September 2023.
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