GDP GROWTH ESTIMATE
8% GDP growth not sustainable yet; bond index inclusion may see short-term volatility: Abheek Barua
After the inclusion in the JP Morgan global bond index, in the short term. we need to prepare for volatility. But in the long term, the collateral and the second-round benefits are huge, says Abheek Barua. He expects this to lead to an improvement in the fixed-income ecosystem, which unfortunately has not taken off that well
UK economy grew 0.7% in first quarter of 2024
Britain's economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter, surpassing an initial estimate of 0.6% growth, according to official figures released on Friday. This data arrives just days before a national election where opinion polls suggest Labour Party leader Keir Starmer may replace Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
US weekly jobless claims drift lower
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended June 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The claims data included last Wednesday's Juneteenth National Independence Day, a new holiday. Claims tend to be volatile around public holidays.
Confident of achieving growth of more than 15%: Umesh Revankar, Shriram Finance
RBI is more focused on the unsecured loan disbursement where the usage is unknown. But where the usage is known, where it is going for business, there RBI and government both have been encouraging.
India can grow at 8 pc if inflation keeps falling: Ashima Goyal, an external member of MPC
Ashima Goyal, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the potential for India's economy to grow at 8% if the nominal repo rate falls in line with declining inflation. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of 7.2% for the current fiscal year.
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Fitch raises FY25 India GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent
In its Global Economic Outlook (GEO) released Monday, it raised its forecast for world growth in 2024 to 2.6% from 2.4% estimated earlier. India's economy grew 8.2% in FY24. "We expect the Indian economy to expand by a strong 7.2% in FY25 (an upward revision of 0.2pp from the March GEO)," Fitch Ratings said, adding that investment will continue to rise but more slowly than in recent quarters, while consumer spending will recover with elevated consumer confidence. Purchasing managers survey data point to continued growth at the start of the current financial year.
GDP to grow 8% in FY25 on agriculture, services boost: CII
According to the industry body, the agriculture sector is likely to grow at 3.7% in the current fiscal, compared with 1.4% last year, whereas the services sector may see a growth of 9% against 7.9% a year back.
Pakistan missed GDP growth target; achieves 2.38 % against envisaged 3.5 % in FY 2023-24: Economic Survey
The growth remained below the estimated target of 3.5 per cent for the outgoing year and the government failed to achieve it, mainly due to underperformance of industries and services sectors.
Economists expect big-bang reforms to continue under Modi 3.0
Modi is set to be sworn in for third term as India's Prime Minister in coalition government with key partners Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United). Economists anticipate focus on economic reforms to achieve goal of Vikshit Bharat by 2047. Budget to prioritize infrastructure, manufacturing, and welfare schemes amid global economic challenges.
RBI policy on expected lines, upgrading GDP growth estimate reposes confidence: Bankers
Bankers welcomed the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain interest rates, as it was in line with expectations, with an upward revision of the growth estimate. The move, including the unchanged repo rate, was seen as positive for the economy. The revised GDP growth forecast for FY25 instilled confidence in the central bank's outlook. Industry leaders praised the regulatory measures and highlighted the importance of collaboration for financial sector growth.
Upward GDP projection and no change in interest rates welcomed by industry and economists
Industry leaders and economists widely accepted RBI's monetary policy stand of no change in interest rates. Besides upward projection of GDP growth for FY25 from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent is welcomed by the Industry.
R Gandhi welcomes RBI's focus on banking safety and payment system soundness
RBI has been paying more attention on that in recent months, especially the disclosure, relating to the terms and conditions of the most important terms and conditions of the credit that is being offered by the credit institutions and there that is the first step which had already been taken.
View: GOI has the solution of India's economic puzzle but it needs to let go fiscal hesitations
India's economy is thriving with 8.2% GDP growth, strong public investment, and tax revenues. However, weak consumer demand and private capex remain issues. To boost growth, the government should create more public sector jobs, increasing incomes and consumption, funded by local savings.
Back to basics in uncertain times; quality to outperform momentum: Nilesh Shah
The election outcome defies market and exit polls estimates. Focus shifts to government formation, analysis of the election verdict, and policy recalibration. Support for bottom-of-the-pyramid consumption likely for inclusive growth.
Macro policy choices unclear, but work cut out on reforms agenda
In FY24, nominal GDP grew 9.6%, CPI inflation recorded 5.4%, and real GDP growth was estimated at 8.2%.
Reality behind the 8.2% FY24 GDP growth is not as robust
The 8.2% FY24 GDP growth reflects a modest deceleration from 3QFY24 at 8.6%. Real gross value added growth slowed considerably in 4QFY24 to 6.3% from 8.3% in 1QFY24.
View: Whichever way you cut it, the economy’s booming and is a welcome gift for the incoming government
The Indian economy is booming with a GDP growth of 8.2% for 2023-24, surpassing estimates. The National Statistics Office data highlights this growth despite challenges in sectors like manufacturing and agriculture.
Economy expands 7.8% in Q4, lifting FY24 growth to 8.2%
This is the highest annual growth since FY17, excluding the 9.7% post-Covid rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY22 after the 5.8% contraction in FY21. The advance estimate released in February had pegged FY24 growth at 7.6%. Economists and government expect the high growth to continue though tepid private consumption remains a concern.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
India's fast economic growth lays firm ground for next government
India's economy grew at a faster-than-expected 7.8% year-on-year in the first three months of 2024, driven by strong performance in the manufacturing sector. This growth pace is expected to support Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic record, who is hoping to win a rare third term in the national election. The Reserve Bank of India's record surplus transfer of 2.11 trillion rupees ($25.3 billion) will help the next government increase state spending to boost growth.
India's GDP grows 7.8 per cent in Q4, FY24 growth pegged at 8.2 per cent
India Q4 GDP: The analysts were anticipating a better-than-expected growth for the January to March quarter this time around. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimated Q4FY24 real GDP growth to be 7 per cent while ET Poll suggested the growth rate of 6.8 per cent. As per a Reuters poll, the Indian economy was expected to grow at 6.7 per cent in the January-March quarter on a year-on-year basis, owing to weak demand.
India's fiscal deficit improves to 5.6% of GDP in FY24, lower than target of 5.8%
India's FY24 fiscal deficit hit Rs 16.54 lakh crore, 95.3% of target. Central government's FY24 fiscal deficit stood at at 5.6% GDP, below 5.8% estimate. Tax receipts surpassed at Rs 23.27 trillion, 100.1% target. Expenditure at Rs 44.43 trillion, 99% target. Capital expenditure at Rs 9.49 lakh crore. Fiscal discipline aims for 5.1% deficit in FY25.
Moody's projects 6.8 per cent GDP expansion in 2024 on strong growth, post-election policy continuity
Moody's Ratings projected India's growth at 6.8% in 2024, followed by 6.5% in 2025. The prediction was driven by economic expansion and post-election policy continuity. The real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2023, with strong government spending and manufacturing activity. High-frequency indicators suggest sustained momentum in the economy. Moody's expects 6-7% annual GDP growth with policy continuity and increased capital expenditure. Private investment outlook is positive, despite inflation volatility.
India's growth outlook: Economy to get a blockbuster release this Friday? But that's too late to stream in poll campaigns
GDP Q4: As the country buzzes with election excitement, India is set to release its GDP growth numbers for the fourth quarter of FY24 this Friday, alongside the full fiscal year figures. Analysts are eagerly awaiting to see if the January to March quarter numbers surpass expectations, fueling hopes of a surprising uptick in growth.
Banks' credit growth in FY25 to slow down to 14% on lower GDP uptick, RBI measures: Crisil
Crisil forecasts a 2 percentage point drop in the banking system's credit growth to 14% for the fiscal year 2024-25, citing factors such as lower GDP growth, RBI measures like higher risk weights on unsecured loans, and a high base effect. Slower deposit growth is expected to temper credit expansion, though the fundamental drivers of credit demand remain intact. While corporate segment growth is projected to maintain at 13%, retail growth will slow to 16%.
Indian economy likely grew at weakest pace in a year in Jan-March, says Reuters poll
India's economy likely experienced its slowest growth in a year during the January-March quarter, attributed to weak domestic demand, according to a Reuters poll of economists. This follows a surprising 8.4% GDP growth in the October-December quarter, boosted by a sharp drop in subsidies that artificially increased net indirect taxes, while gross value added (GVA) grew by 6.5%. For the January-March period, GDP growth is expected to have slowed to 6.7%, with GVA growth at 6.2%.
India seen to emerge as an economic superpower in impending problem-ridden global financial landscape
Global recession risks have diminished, but inflation concerns threaten financial stability. The IMF, World Bank, and rating agencies forecast a slowdown in global growth, citing Middle East conflicts, financial stress, persistent inflation, and reduced international trade as key risks. The IMF's Global Debt Monitor reveals global debt at $235 trillion, or 238% of global GDP, raising fears of a debt crisis. Fiscal prudence may suffer as many nations face elections this year.
Ind-Ra raises India's FY25 GDP growth estimate to 7.1 pc: Strong government-private investment propel economic momentum
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has revised India's GDP growth estimate for FY25 upwards to 7.1 per cent, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7.0 per cent. The agency's outlook is supported by government capital expenditure and a revival in private sector investment. Challenges include uneven consumption demand and export sector obstacles. Despite positive indicators, constraints remain, such as high inflation and geopolitical uncertainties affecting exports.
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