LIQUIDITY DEFICIT
Tight liquidity forces banks to tap debt markets, shell out more
"To a certain extent, the year-on-year rise in the bank borrowing numbers is a reflection of the merger between HDFC and HDFC Bank. But apart from that, it is clearly a reflection of the tightness in the liquidity and that was, to a certain extent, exacerbated in the month of May because government spending was restricted during the Union election," said Soumyajit Niyogi, director at India Ratings & Research.
Looking at a Goldilocks scenario for corporate earnings? Mukul Kochhar is betting on 3 sectors
Mukul Kochhar says growth will be structurally higher by a percent, percent-and-a-half and one factor is the current account surplus which should get us into a more stable economic growth cycle. I feel that the private capex cycle is going to be very strong and going to focus a little bit on manufacturing.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Progressive Budget, normal monsoons & strong inflows will further re-rate markets: Amnish Aggarwal
We expect the NDA government to sustain focus on capex-led growth around PLI, Roads, Ports, Aviation, Defence, Railways, and Green energy, given a 20 bps lower fiscal deficit in FY24 (Than RE), normal monsoons, and Rs 2.1 lakh crore dividend from RBI.
India's world-beating growth pace to continue, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
"In the first three quarters of 2023-24, the current account deficit was 1.2% (of GDP)," Das said. "Our teams are working on the fourth quarter numbers. They look to be even lower, and when you look at the annual current account deficit number, I will not be surprised next week when we publish the current account deficit numbers - they could be even lower than 1% (of GDP)," he said at the ET Now event.
Advance tax numbers bring cheer to the economy
Advance tax collection in FY till June 15 surged 27.6% to ₹1.48 lakh crore, with ₹1.14 lakh crore as corporate tax and ₹34,362 crore as personal income tax, indicating a strong economy and corporate performance.
Services export boom is most unheralded story of India in last five years: S Naren
And I do not like to name companies, but most of the financial services companies in the world are dependent on their Indian global competency centres to do all kinds of work for them and that is the biggest positive that has happened and due credit to India for having achieved it over the last five years because 10 years back we had IT services companies, we did not have GCCs of the scale.
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How should one approach investing in a market dominated by liquidity? S Naren answers
I think basically we were the first bulls in PSU along with a few other domestic investors. And, at that point of time PSU valuations were mouthwatering. And I could not understand why other than a few of us in the industry, others did not find them mouthwatering.
RBI using forex market tools to ease liquidity tightness
RBI uses forex tools to inject cash into banking system ahead of large outflows due to advance tax payments, keeping borrowing costs low and increasing reserves without impacting inflation-fighting stance.
PSBs lean less on OIS as a hedgeon uncertain local rate outlook
State-owned banks are reducing their reliance on derivatives to hedge domestic interest rate risks, with a notable decline in the market share of nationalised banks in the IRS MIBOR segment. Factors such as liquidity deficits, market volatility, and inflation targets have influenced this trend.
Should investors buy select IT and FMCG stocks? Anand Tandon answers
The crop output is likely to be better and perhaps with some support from the government we are likely to get better realisations as well. So, as a combination, I expect to see a significant increase in rural demand coming through and therefore, you are looking for direct farm plays as well as indirect ways of looking at where rural consumption can actually increase demand.
Flexible approach in managing liquidity to help money market rates
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced the central bank's commitment to maintaining money market rates and borrowing costs through flexible liquidity management. The RBI will use various operations to manage liquidity, responding to foreign investment flows impacting Indian bond markets. Analysts predict significant foreign flows following inclusion in JPMorgan's bond index, potentially affecting rupee liquidity. Das highlighted the RBI's ability to handle liquidity impact and swiftly respond to banking system liquidity fluctuations.
Weaker BJP in power won't increase borrowing in July budget, says Kotak Mahindra Bank
Budget 2024: A weaker majority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance may lead to increased welfare spending without the need for additional borrowing, potentially limiting a rise in bond yields, according to a senior executive at Kotak Mahindra Bank . The government is expected to utilize a large dividend from the Reserve Bank of India for welfare schemes, rather than increasing gross borrowing in the upcoming budget. Despite concerns of populist measures, the executive rules out a supply cut in bonds and forecasts the 10-year benchmark yield to remain below 7.10% over the next six months.
RBI to face problem of plenty: Prepare for bond sales
The RBI's challenge for the year may not be inflation but liquidity. Government spending resumption and overseas fund flows complicate monetary policy effectiveness.
S&P Global to observe India's fiscal glidepath for ratings upgrade
S&P Global Ratings will monitor India's fiscal consolidation efforts over the next two years for a potential sovereign ratings upgrade. Despite raising the outlook to "positive," the rating remains "BBB-." Focus is on India's fiscal deficit reduction targets, fiscal discipline with RBI's surplus transfer, and its ability to manage inflation.
Saudi Arabia may announce landmark Aramco share sale today: Report
Saudi Arabia may announce a landmark secondary share offering in oil giant Aramco later on Thursday, pending final approval from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Govt's cash balance surges, banks starve
The ongoing general elections have led to a surplus in government cash balances, impacting the banking sector due to reduced spending. The Centre's adoption of efficient fund management practices has resulted in over ₹3 lakh crore in cash balances, affecting borrowing costs and liquidity in the market.
RBI dividend to have limited impact on medium-term fiscal consolidation: Fitch
Fitch Ratings emphasized the limited medium-term impact of the RBI's surplus transfer on India's fiscal consolidation and debt path. The government targets a fiscal deficit of 4.5% of the GDP by FY26, with potential positive implications for credit ratings.
Liquidity deficit surges to four-month high
The shortfall of funds has pushed up the weighted average call rate (WACR), which represents banks' overnight cost of borrowing and functions as a determinant of other borrowing costs in the economy too. On Wednesday, the WACR closed at 6.75%, the same rate as the RBI's Marginal Standing Facility (MSF).
Government gets Rs 2.11 lakh crore from RBI by way of dividend
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has transferred a record surplus of Rs 2.1 lakh crore to the central government for FY’2023-24, exceeding expectations. This windfall, largely from interest income on overseas securities and income from LAF operations, strengthens the government's fiscal position and may lead to a reduction in borrowing. The surplus, determined by the Economic Capital Framework (ECF), represents 25.5% of RBI's total assets.
Slow spending by India government may prompt more cash infusion
India's federal government spending is expected to remain sluggish for several more months, leading to potential measures to inject liquidity into the banking system. Recent actions include three short-term securities buybacks and alterations in treasury bill borrowings. Slower spending is attributed to the ongoing national election.
RBI announces reduction in the quantum of the government’s treasury bill sales
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has responded to tight liquidity conditions in the banking system by announcing a significant reduction in the government's treasury bill sales and introducing a new selection of bonds for the Centre's buyback operations. This move aims to alleviate cash constraints for banks, which have been exacerbated by muted government spending during the ongoing general elections. By reducing the supply of treasury bills and offering bonds for repurchase at acceptable prices, the RBI seeks to inject liquidity into the banking system and ease borrowing costs for banks.
Bond buyback: Govt proposes, market disposes, over price
At a buyback auction of government bonds last week, the RBI accepted bids worth only ₹10,512.99 crore versus ₹40,000 crore worth of securities the government had offered to repurchase, with the central bank rejecting most bids.
RBI to revisit LCR framework in bid to shield banks from run
The central bank will issue a draft circular in this regard for comments of all stakeholders. Under the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) introduced post the global financial crisis, banks are currently required to maintain a stock of high quality liquid assets (HQLA) to cover the expected net cash outflows in the next 30 calendar days.
Liquidity deficit falls to 3-month low as govt steps up spending
Numerous rounds of variable rate repos by the Reserve Bank of India and its recent strategy in foreign exchange markets have also contributed to easing liquidity conditions following a prolonged stretch of large cash deficits in the banking system, market participants said.
Liquidity deficit tightening financial conditions: CRISIL
Financial conditions have tightened the economy with liquidity going into a deeper deficit putting upward pressure on short-term rates, according to a research report by CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics. The report released during the month also said that foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers further aggravating the tight liquidity conditions.
Good news for NBFCs: Fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent for FY25 positive for liquidity
NBFCs are well placed to harness the India Stack in ensuring last-mile credit delivery to the smallest business or remotest retail customer. For this, NBFCs will have to expand their capital base, and diversify across other sources of credit like debt markets and public deposits. Public deposits can be a cheap source of capital for upper layered large NBFCs, the benefits of which can be passed on to borrowers.
Liquidity in deficit, FIs and companies turn to market repos for cash
Between April and November 2023, the daily average value of market repos was ₹1.46 lakh crore, the highest on record, and 15% higher than the average for 2022-23, according to the latest data published by the Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL).
Banks may alert RBI as rising funding costs sting amid sustained liquidity drainage
The RBI has been maintaining tight liquidity to curb inflation, a politically sensitive metric that needs restraining, especially as the most populous country embarks on the biggest democratic exercise in the world to choose its government for the next five years.
RBI's repo sees strong demand, traders eye more cash infusion in Q4
"Shortage of funds will only get exaggerated in the last quarter (of the fiscal year), which ideally also sees the strongest credit growth," a senior treasury official at a private bank said. "We expect frequency of such repos to increase."
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