SP, Congress broke 2 trends in UP, but must keep ‘new voters’ by side

LUCKNOW: Over and above the factors like local issues, anti-incumbency against a large number of BJP candidates, unemployment and 'fear of changing the Constitution', the poll verdict in UP broke two trends, one after three decades and the second after nearly 10 years.
The first saw Jatavs among the Dalits, known loyal to Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party for the past three decades, shifting to the INDIA bloc.The second had a section of core voters and youth which had remained loyal to the BJP since 2014 also switching its allegiance to the SP-Cong front.
There is no denying the fact that smart moves by both the Cong and SP led to drifting of the Jatavs towards their front. Both the parties were successful in not only setting up the narrative that once the BJP came to power, the Constitution would be changed and caste-based reservation scrapped, but also ensuring that the message penetrated deep among Dalits and OBCs to some extent.
Sensing the Dalit drift, the played smart and fielded in Dalit candidates on even two general seats of Meerut -- from where Sunita Verma contested against the BJP’s Arun Govil, and Ayodhya, where veteran Avadhesh Prasad, a Passi, was fielded against the BJP’s Lallu Singh. Even though Verma tasted defeat, she was able to garner a huge chunk of Jatav votes. In Ayodhya, Prasad defeated Lallu Singh, mainly by the support of a large number of Passi voters.
Interestingly, SP won seven reserved seats while Congress won one and the new entrant into Dalit politics Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) chief Chandrashekhar Azad also won one. The BJP, in one of its lowest tallies on these seats, could win only 8 seats out of the total 17 reserved seats.
It had won 14 in 2019 and all 17 in 2014.
It clearly shows that Jatavs drifted towards the INDIA bloc this time. However, there can be a debate on whether it was because of Congress that Jatavs went to INDIA bloc or did the Akhilesh’s PDA push led to successful Dalit outreach? Whatever may be the reason now, the job in hand for the two is to ensure that the 'drifted Dalit' vote bank doesn't search for another alternative like Nagina MP Azad, or its original choice, BSP.
For this two will have to keep their alliance intact. This will not only stop Dalits from getting confused in choosing one of the two, but also give a clear choice to Muslims, who found it easy to pick INDIA bloc rather than choosing between SP and Cong.
If the alliance breaks, both the SP and the Cong will find it hard to prove who among the two could be a natural choice for Dalits, Muslims and even a section of BJP’s core voters and youth in the elections ahead.