Demos Helsinki

It's time to view foresight as a capability rather than just a methodology. Foresight is an approach to anticipate the future and guide present actions to achieve desired outcomes across a complex system of risks, uncertainties, and opportunities. However, there’s a gap between the existence of foresight knowledge and the absence of its meaningful use at the governmental level. This gap is caused by lack of futures literacy and unaccommodating operations in institutions to create, refine, process and use foresight knowledge in decision making.    Most foresight practices are used to prepare for or mitigate possible risks, thus building a reactive system. There is no universally right or wrong way to use foresight, but in such cases, an important angle of the futures is untapped: emerging opportunities. To balance preparedness and proactivity towards desirable futures, we must view foresight within a more holistic model of governance—anticipatory governance. Anticipatory governance is an approach to governance and decision making where foresight and other futures-related knowledge are created, used, and refined. Anticipatory governance requires embedding foresight in structures, culture, practices, and capabilities: 🟡 It demands a shift in mindset from the short- to the long-term and a reimagining of institutions to better reflect that mindset. 🟡 It is about expanding political narratives through a more holistic lens. 🟡 It involves developing skills and futures literacy among civil servants and practitioners. 🟡 It necessitates foresight thinking and practices in policy-making processes. This approach navigates Demos Helsinki’s efforts in anticipatory governance, including collaboration with the Finnish Ministry of the Interior on foresight models, futures literacy capacity building for civil servants and trainers, and more. The aim is to enhance: ✅ systemic thinking with different time horizons and broader scenarios,  ✅ preparedness to deal with short-term possible events and ✅ proactivity in policy formulation and long-term pathways. Foresight achieves its full potential only when it is a collaborative and diverse effort, actively supported and implemented by both Individuals and Institutions. For those still treating foresight as just another project method, let's change the narrative! #foresight #futuresthinking #anticipatorygovernance

A bold agenda can produce results: Lessons from eradicating homelessness in Finland 🏘️🇫🇮 Reducing homelessness, among other social problems, is in dire need of a more ambitious agenda. While providing shelter and employment opportunities are essential, they are also the equivalent of "plugging holes", sending a message that there is an acceptable rate of homelessness. Instead, imagine if governments said: "From now on, no one will be homeless". What kinds of creative and new policies would this generate? 🔵 Intervention: Finland did just that. Mostly driven by a very committed individual and organisation, Housing First (HF) is a framework that tackles homelessness through emphasising housing as a basic human right and a constitutional necessity. However, as a principle, it is not enough. Certain preconditions have enabled Finland to use this principle to drive systemic change in addressing homelessness, namely:    🧭 directionality: establishing a clear direction with a commitment to eliminating homelessness,  🧱 capacity building: connecting stakeholders with necessary skills and resources, and  🔁 learning: embracing a learning-oriented operational model to identify bottlenecks and improvements while accepting the possibility of failures. 🔵 Results:  Because of these conditions and HF, Finland has become the only country that has reduced homelessness in Europe, amidst a worsening homelessness situation. The HF framework and preconditions led to the transformation of temporary shelters into permanent apartment blocks. It was also implemented at the municipal level and laid the groundwork for the Finnish government to launch four consecutive policy programs. These programs promote both new and scattered housing services nationwide. 🔵 Key learnings: 💡 Principles like HF alone cannot necessarily produce systemic outcomes, unless they are paired with structural and operational changes.  💡 An effort was built up by a ministry to entrench the innovative intervention in the national housing strategy. However, public, private and civic sectors were encouraged to co-operate and exchange learnings on adapting in the local context. 💡 Eradicating homelessness cannot be a single policy — or even a set of policies driven by one ministry; it has to be a strategic priority across government.  Despite the social and economic strains of COVID-19 and high inflation Finland’s strategic application of the bold, unapologetic HF model has significantly reduced homelessness. This model provides a case study of what can happen when governments assume a bold agenda and collaborate with civil society and citizens to deliver it. Stories like this are abound — and not only in Finland. You can read more about this in a relevant report that we worked on with Crisis, Y-Säätiö, FEANTSA, and the Housing First Europe Hub (link in comment). #HousingFirst #SocialInnovation #SystemicChange

A European Agenda to Navigate Uncertain Times - How to Steer the EU towards Wellbeing for All ⚙ The good news is that in Europe, we have the opportunity and knowledge to shape the direction of development towards sustainable and inclusive wellbeing, even in uncertain times. Despite geopolitical tensions, living costs, inflation, rising inequalities, climate and biodiversity crises, polarisation, and an aging society, we are not bound to fall into despair. The policy agenda of the new European Commission has all the opportunities to address these complex challenges. Our new advocacy paper, co-authored by our MERGE sibling projects SPES Sustainability Performances, Evidence & Scenarios, ToBe Research, WISE Horizons and WISER, aims to support the new European Commission in this task. There is no need to start from scratch: The Commission can build on an existing body of governance, measurement frameworks, policies, legislation and good practices within the EU and globally. Read the paper below to discover how to steer the EU towards wellbeing, now and in the future 💡 #MERGE #european_agenda #governance #societal_transformations

New governments often start with a mission, but turning those missions into meaningful outcomes for citizens requires more than good intentions. It involves navigating immense complexity, challenging established rules, dealing with different mindsets, and, not least, facing the Boogie Monster of Bureaucracy. There is a way to do this, but it requires a new operational model. Developed with Nordic organizations and refined over two years, our operational model for mission-driven government takes inspiration from Mariana Mazzucato’s work to outline the essential functions and tasks for effective public leadership in delivering on strategic priorities. Collaborative functions: 🎯 Defining the mission: Identify and co-develop the challenge with stakeholders. 🎯 Tackling the mission: Engage stakeholders to expand the knowledge base, clarify the challenge, and experiment new solutions. 🎯 Learning from the mission: Facilitate peer learning to stimulate the adoption of good practices and identify emerging bottlenecks. 🎯 Redirecting the mission: Refine and expand the implementation strategy based on real-time feedback. Government responsibilities: 🔵 Roadmapping: Encourage stakeholders to ideate, develop and test solutions within their own contexts. 🔵 Portfolio management: Ensure that projects in mission portfolios complement each other, maintain momentum, and engage the right participants. 🔵 Formative evaluation: Monitor progress beyond metrics and focus on supporting the development of societal impact capabilities. 🔵 Policy integration: Continuously gather knowledge to update or expand the policy toolbox in light of new problems. Implementing this model requires an appetite for experimentation and some humility. Both can be limited by short-term electoral cycles. But let’s face it: the Boogie Monster isn’t going anywhere. Long-term challenges require new forms of governance and developing those is not a luxury; it’s a necessity. #new_governemnt #mission #mission_orientation #mission_driven_government Creativity is abundant in governance. Take a look at recent examples of brilliant and committed organisations that are addressing the same problems in the comments. (cc UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP), BIOS Research Unit, 4FRONT)

#Week6 #networkexperiment #appreciatinginformalexchange  #thepowerofongoingconnection #collaborationadditionaltoexistingprojectsandprogrammes: 💙 Academics Stand Against Poverty UK #UKGE2024 manifesto audit was launched: https://lnkd.in/ehF8uVUu - see how UK political parties’ policies compare against each other across 9 key dimensions of flourishing, wellbeing and addressing inequality and poverty (there's a great spider diagram).  Listen to the podcast by Lee Gregory and myself, and read a #transformingsociety blog series, at Bristol University Press and Policy Press https://lnkd.in/eXWKmeAB #UKManifestoPovertyAudit 💙 Prof Thomas Hale Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford and my #UKGE2024 blogpost on "Politicians are promising a better tomorrow. The future of democracy depends on their ability to deliver it” published on Bobby Duffy’s Policy Centre https://lnkd.in/ecyB3bdM The under25 yo 10% vote for #reform is very worrying indeed and is something I will return to as a priority for new govt to address 💙 Birgitte Bischoff Ebbesen Dorothy Francis & many others at International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies - IFRC Red Crescent Societies - how a #futuregenerations lens can contribute in building their Polycrisis Reslience Think and Do Tank - see Nicklas Larsen great summary here https://lnkd.in/ejc5v5YK. It is excellent to see a global network with community based infrastructure focus on its role in building #solidarity and #agency for the future 💙 Alex Urwin - Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) - exploring how to integrate #futuregens and #youthvoices substantively into global moments like #g20, #unsummits, #cop 💙 Sam Selvadurai - Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office - discussing foresight capability building in a complex geopolitical world 💙 Emma Thomasson - journalist and newsroom leader in Berlin and exploring the intersection between mental health and wellbeing, leadership and futures thinking 💙 Theo Cox and Olli Bremer - Demos Helsinki - building systemic #foresight governance and institutions, measuring impact - and centering JOY 💙 Bill Sharpe and Marion Birnstill - H3UNI - scaling H3 interventions to 1% of people and so it can be the practice for “regenerative foresight for one planet living” that the whole world can tap into 💙 Minh-Thu Pham - Project Starling - preparing a NY roundtable to connect #sdg16, longterm inclusive governance for sustainable development, #foresight and #future generations 💙Maggie Greyson MDes, APF - Futures Present - deep research in the #foresight and creativity space Thank you for inspiring me - and for sharing, exploring and building together!

🇬🇧 As the UK awaits the results of today's crucial election, Theo Cox, one of our experts based in the UK, provides a sharp analysis of the challenges ahead for the likely incoming Labour government. After 14 years of Conservative rule, Labour is poised to take over amidst a backdrop of weakened public services, a struggling economy, and global instability. Read more to discover his insights on Labour's path forward and the critical steps they must take ⬇💡! #uk #generalelection

Numerous insightful discussions and exciting new contacts at the Valencia Climate Week and NetZeroCitiesEU annual conference in Valencia last week. One of the most interesting elements of the Cities Mission is the Capital Hub that was launched on Wednesday. The cities committed to climate neutrality already know what needs to be done, mostly also understand how to do it, but often lack the financial capacities. We have high hopes for green investments and need to learn how to mobilise private funding for climate neutrality! Hence, much looking forward to diving deeper into the capital hub work! Thanks for company Espoon kaupunki - Esbo stad - City of Espoo Tampereen kaupunki - City of Tampere Demos Helsinki VTT Helsingin kaupunki – Helsingfors stad – City of Helsinki City of Lappeenranta Turun kaupunki - Åbo stad - City of Turku and of course Anna Huttunen The Finnish Mission Cities and the supporting national team has turned out to be a wonderdul platform for peer2peer support and collaboration. Also managed to pop into the meeting of European Green Capital Network to meet old friends and joined a panel discussion on nature based solutions and showcase Lahti's health forest at the European urban resilience forum. A full week, but a very good one! Even got to the beach (for an hour) before heading home 😎🌴 Lahden kaupunki / City of Lahti

🖼 Greetings from #EURESFO in Valencia! An arts pro listened carefully to the session I co-moderated with the wonderful Alison De Luise and this beautiful picture came out. I'll explain.    🗣 During a warm-up exercise we asked people to consider which groups of people are disproportionately suffering from climate change effects. We learnt from the audience that some neighbourhoods of London have 20 years lower life-expectancy than their adjacent hoods. If you then think that the climate change effects are likely to add to health pressures of these people who are also non-affluent, it is not hard to see a vicious circle forming. Exactly this kind of considerations of overlapping vulnerabilities and exposures are central in the work we do at Demos Helsinki in the Regions4Climate. We just operate at the regional scale. ⚖ As we continued on the stage, Hanne van den Berg provided a wonderful basis for the session with an introduction to just resilience: what it is and why it is needed. To address the social justice in particular, she broke it down to justice in outcomes, justice in terms of process and justice as a matter of recognition, i.e. the acknowledgement of the injustices that are of structural nature. 💡Our bright panellists shared their considerations on embedding justice into their work. Some anecdotes around coping with heat follow. In Emilio Servera Martínez's words heat is actually pretty tangible. Heat is not like Star Wars or climate change, in some outer space, but it’s all around us when it strikes.   ☀ Emilio started by bridging us with the Valencia of his school years, when the heat risk in schools was not yet an issue. He also pointed to the fact that nowadays, somewhat counter-intuitively, the electricity use in Valencia is at its highest level in the summer because of the air-conditioning. His experiences of incorporating justice considerations in the adaptation work came e.g. from public schools that need to take action against high heat.  🌡 Ludwig Sonesson told, for instance, about the great cross-sectoral cooperation in Malmö in supporting the elderly population that may suffer during the heat waves. With the help of smart thermostats the city is able to spot if the room temperatures of their rental units start to rise so high that the elderly would need extra support – and then organise the in-person visits through the social services.     💶 Andreea Vornicu told about the patchwork-like situation in Romanian cities: People usually own their apartments but only some can afford to renovate them. This leads to the uneven geographies of heat and cold that the Romanian energy poverty observatory is trying to understand, in order to identify interventions with the residents. The intention is to offer one-stop-shops that can pave the way for renovations or other solutions that work against energy poverty and improve people’s living conditions. Thank you to all, including the attentive audience!

The third annual Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities Mission conference took place in Valencia during the Valencia Cities Climate Week. Demos Helsinki is part of a consortium of leading European organizations working on the NetZeroCitiesEU project, aiming to help cities drastically cut emissions by 2030. As 2030 approaches, innovative and effective support for cities striving for climate neutrality is essential. Today, the European Commission launched the Climate City Capital Hub to advise Mission Cities on finance and unlock both public and private funding sources for their climate actions. A key theme of the conference was multi-level governance. Over two days, city officials and decision-makers emphasized the need for alignment across local, regional, national, European, and global decision-making to effectively mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis. This aligns with findings from the Eurocities Pulse 2024, where multi-level cooperation was among the top 10 priorities for European city mayors. This is because many emission sources are beyond the direct control of city organisations. For instance, implementing congestion charges to reduce traffic emissions often requires national regulation. To ensure state governments adequately fund climate actions and investments in cities, pressure from the EU and international treaties is crucial. And so on. The EU Cities Mission serves as an experimental framework to connect cities with the EU, fostering collaborative innovation in policies, funding models, and practices to help cities achieve their climate-neutrality targets. Concurrently, cities are running their own climate missions, engaging local businesses and citizens and funding local climate initiatives. As Rosalinde van der Vlies, Clean Planet Director at the European Commission, stated: "Multi-level collaboration is in the DNA of the Cities Mission". The urgent message from multiple sessions at the conference was clear: time is running out. We cannot wait for perfect solutions to address the climate crisis. Instead, we must use the readily available means, rapidly experiment with new ones and learn from the successes and mistakes of others. Cities account for over 70 % of global emissions. Thererfore all levels of government must work in unison to help cities succeed in combating climate change. And where that’s not possible, cities need to take the lead and show the way forward.

Great opportunity to connect with our experts if you are also attending Valencia Cities Climate Week 📣