Bank Nifty poised to move towards 41,500; gold can reach $2100 and crude may inch up to $6,700: Rajesh Palviya

“HDFC Bank has been witnessing strong buying momentum for the past two weeks, and the stock is currently forming a higher high formation, approaching the multiple resistance zone area at around 1665-1670,” says Rajesh Palviya, Head- Technical Research, Axis Securities. Edited excerpts.

ET Now: The market saw a big breakout this week with Nifty closing above 17,500. Can you share your thoughts on the market's momentum going forward? Do you think we will quickly reach the 18,000 mark?
Rajesh Palviya: Hi there, it's great to be here. Yes, we did witness a broad-based buying action in the market, and Nifty comfortably closed above the major call concentration area of 17,500. This indicates that the market is currently in a positive trend. Looking at the overall setup, we do expect some upside momentum in the coming week, and it's possible that Nifty may move higher towards 17,50-17,800 in continuation of this up move. However, it's important to note that the level of 18000 is a challenging and crucial mark, and it may take some time to reach there.

Some sectors are still not contributing to this rally, but considering the setup, we do believe that 17,800 can be achieved in the coming week. One can hold their long position with a stop loss of 17,450.

ET Now: That's very insightful. How about Bank Nifty? What's your view on that?
Rajesh Palviya: We are optimistic about Bank Nifty's performance in the near future. Bank Nifty is now trading above 41,000 levels, and we can see that the momentum is catching up further. In continuation of this trend, Bank Nifty can possibly move up towards 41,500. One can hold their position for these targets and keep a stop loss at around 40,700.

ET Now: Let's discuss the commodity market, specifically crude and gold. There has been a lot of movement in both these markets. Can you give us your insights on where these commodities are headed and how they are performing on the charts?
Rajesh Palviya: Sure. Gold has been trading above $2000 and has given a clear breakout. It is currently showing strong momentum, and we believe that it can continue to rise towards $2080 to $2100 in the near future. Any dips in the prices can be seen as buying opportunities as long as it doesn't break below $1980. Considering the buying interest, it's possible that gold can reach higher levels near its all-time high trajectory.

Talking about crude, the prices have been rising steadily due to Saudi Arabia's production cuts. Looking at the MCX prices, if crude can maintain its current level above $6300, we expect it to inch up further towards $6650-$6700 in the coming weeks. Overall, we have a bullish view on crude in the near-term and suggest maintaining a stop loss at $6300.

ET NOW: Nifty Pharma has been performing well for the past three weeks after being a laggard in 2022. How do you see this on the charts, and what is your outlook for the sector?
Rajesh Palviya: Yes, we have witnessed a significant recovery in the Pharma sector. The Pharma Index is now trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating that buying interest is likely to continue in the short term. Some of the Pharma stocks have done well, and we believe that Aurobindo Pharma looks attractive at the current level. We project a positional target of 580 to 590 for Aurobindo Pharma, and one can buy and accumulate this stock with a stop loss of 505.

Another stock we like from this space is Syngene. After a corrective move, the stock has started its recovery from its lower level, and we believe that it can continue its upside momentum from the current level. We project a target of around 630-640 for Syngene on a positional basis, and one can buy and accumulate this stock with a stop loss of 585.

ET Now: HDFC Bank is set to report its earnings for the upcoming week, and over the past eight days, the stock has been on an upward rally. How do you foresee this counter performing during the results season, given that the quarterly updates have been positive? What are your observations from the charts?

Rajesh Palviya: HDFC Bank has been witnessing strong buying momentum for the past two weeks, and the stock is currently forming a higher high formation, approaching the multiple resistance zone area at around 1665-1670. With a long built up on the derivative side, we expect this trend to continue higher in the coming week, with the stock scaling up towards 1730-1740. Our outlook for HDFC Bank is bullish, and we recommend buying and accumulating the stock with a stop loss of 1630, while projecting an upside target of 1730-1740.

ET Now: Are there any other stocks that you're keeping an eye on for the upcoming week?
Rajesh Palviya: Absolutely. There are a few stocks that we find attractive for the upcoming week. First, we have DLF from the real estate space, which has shown a strong buying action this week with a gain of almost 7%. The stock has also managed to break out of its eight-week consolidation range. With the long built up and the price action, we believe that the next target for DLF could be 400. We recommend buying and accumulating this stock with a stop loss of 370.

Next, we have RK Forge, which has also shown a 7% gain for the week and given a breakout on the weekly chart. With the bullish trend in the long term, short term and medium term, we believe that the momentum for this stock can continue towards the 325-330 zone. The upside target for RK Forge is 335, and we recommend buying it with a stop loss at around 296.

Lastly, we have L&T from the capital goods space, which has broken out of its triangular formation on the weekly chart and is now trading close to its all-time high trajectory. With the setup and the derivatives data, we believe that L&T can continue its upside momentum towards 2350. We recommend buying this stock with a stop loss of 2240.