India back at 2008 level in Global Peace Index: Thomas Morgan, Institute for Economics & Peace

In a chat with ET Now, Thomas Morgan, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Economics & Peace, says India has risen to 137th spot among 163 countries, where it was positioned in 2008.

Edited excerpts:


I was just looking at the internals of the composition of the peace index and one of the parameters on the basis of which you are looking at evaluating countries is the fact that the economic impact of violence is almost 12.6% of world GDP. This requires a fair amount of easing in geopolitical tension for economies to do well. I see the list of the top 10 countries and none of them are high flying names that we talk about in terms of global superpowers. You have Iceland at number one, New Zealand as number two, Portugal is number three. Canada is ranked number eighth, Switzerland and Ireland are there. What does that really highlight in terms of what is happening in some of the developed markets, like what is happening in the UK, what is happening in the United States and what does the future hold for them?

There are certain geographical and geopolitical factors which make it easier for smaller countries with smaller economies to be more peaceful. Look at Iceland, the most peaceful country in the world. It has a very small population, very isolated, very unlikely to be involved in conflicts with other countries. There are certain factors these countries have no control over.

It is true that if you look at the emerging economies, more dynamic economies, they tend to be more engaged with other parts of the world or perhaps more prone to geopolitical tensions and so on.

I do not think there is necessarily a direct correlation between peacefulness and dynamic economic performance. Having said that, our research just found that countries which are more peaceful are much more likely to have more stable economic growth over the longer term. Our research finds that 12.6% is the cost of violence to the global economies is equivalent to 12.6% of gross world product. If you think about it-- the trend is not of ways that goes into violence and violence containment and that potential economic growth that could be unlocked if there was less spending in these areas is quite phenomenal.

Please put into context the current global economic environment given the geopolitical risks that are there and how that is really the key parameter to judging the potential for an economy and its political stability.

There is no doubt that it is optically volatile time globally at the moment and seeing the level of the conflict particularly in the Middle East and North Africa at the moment but also elsewhere around the world. There is a tremendous amount of political instability and conflict which of course translates into economic instability as well. There is no doubt that this is a particularly volatile time in history.

ET Now: India has moved a few notches and we very rarely talk about the Peace Index but it is so important to highlight that the larger environment that is helping India focus on its economic growth has been one of peace. How do you look at India’s position? It has risen to number 137. Do you see consistent improvement in India’s position as a peaceful nation?

Thomas Morgan: It surely. It has risen to 137 out of the 163 countries in the Global Peace Index and it is interesting looking back over the last 10 years, that in 2008 India was ranked at 137 as well. So there has been some fluctuation over the past decade but we have seen particularly in the last five years that India’s rank has continuously improved and now it has returned to the level where it was in 2008.

If we look at the reasons for the improvement over the past year, seeing improvements in the level of violent crime, fall in the number of weapons imports, fall in homicide rate, reduction in the number of deaths through internal conflict and also more reduction in the number of security offices and police. So we are seeing what the Global Peace Index data shows for India is an increased level of peacefulness internally.

Can you elaborate on the US and the EU political unrest that we are seeing there. Has it been significantly downplayed and do you believe that has also contributed to the deterioration in the overall political turbulence?

There is no doubt that the recent events in the US are a reflection of a decline in peacefulness in the country and in the region. More broadly, we are also looking at the rise of populist parties in Europe. Definitely that has had an impact on the level of peacefulness and political instability. If you look at the recent events around the US election at the end of last year and the resulting political turmoil, there is no doubt that increase in political instability has led to a decrease in peacefulness and the potential for future decrease in peacefulness as well over the next few years.

What do you expect from India in terms of the data points for India not just to rise economically but also politically to be a stable and more peaceful country?

If we look at the indicators on the Global Peace Index where India has the worst performance again. Some of these are not necessarily within India’s control. It is a very large, very populous country. On some of the indicators related to nuclear, heavy weapons and terrorism and so on there is really little likelihood of improvement in the near future certainly.

In terms of those factors which relate to economic and political development, we see that India has done poorly on a political scale. There is quite high perceptions of criminality and there is certain amount of political instability reflected in the likelihood of violent demonstrations. Those are the areas where there is a potential for better performance in the future from India. A better performance would not only relate to more peaceful society but would also unlock a certain amount of economic growth as well.