MARKET ECONOMY
Stable economy boosts India's housing market to new heights, scales 11-year peak
The housing property market across India is witnessing substantial growth in sales volumes, driven by stable economic conditions and continued confidence, even amidst higher mortgage rates. This uptrend is led by the top eight cities, including Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, and Hyderabad, propelling the country’s residential real estate market to an 11-year high in sales volumes during the first half of the year.
Union budget 2024: Making a case for sustainable agrarian practices and inclusive growth
Budget: Modi's recent focus on PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi aimed to support farmers. The upcoming Union budget may lean towards populism, highlighting the exclusion of tenant farmers in schemes like PM-Kisan. Challenges such as irrigation and labour shortages limit productivity, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices.
Capitalism hasn’t failed — we’ve actually greatly benefited from freer market
Schumpeterians believe that government attempts to help, help and help again are the root cause of all that has gone wrong. They link this to declining GDP growth, angst among workers that 'decent jobs' are disappearing, rising inequalities, a soaring number of billionaires, rising inflation, crazy stock market valuations, Trumpist populism, protectionism and soaring fiscal deficits.
For our mutual benefit
BlackRock's resurgence can be attributed to more than just market growth: India's growing ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) movement plays a crucial role. As a prominent figure in sustainable and transition investing globally, BlackRock's involvement is anticipated to elevate ESG standards in India, promoting increased transparency and accountability in the market. The explanation lies not in a sudden change in BlackRock's strategy but rather in the significant evolution of the Indian mutual fund industry over recent years.
Competitive intensity in used vehicle market to be on the rise: India Ratings
India Ratings and Research predicts that vehicle financiers will increase the share of used vehicles in their AUM due to rising new vehicle prices, food inflation, heat wave, moderation in capacity utilization due to elections, and slowing rural economy. The agency also expects a decrease in FY25 growth rates from FY24 levels. The agency expects non-bank finance companies to focus on used vehicles as assets class, presenting a favorable risk-return in terms of asset quality and pricing power.
Indigenous Innovation: A blueprint for systematically achieving Viksit Bharat
India's digital economy is on track to reach $1 trillion by 2030 with a growth rate 2.8 times that of regular GDP. Leveraging the CHIPS framework and strategic partnerships, India aims to secure a prominent global position through sustainable practices, education initiatives, and robust data governance.
Counter-questions for the asking
India's growing population, coupled with higher disposable incomes and consumption, has already begun to devastate our carefully constructed cocoons without our realising it. Competitive manufacturing (leveraging economies of scale, procurement, branding and digitalisation) may be enticing more people to consume more (double effect), accelerating planet-stripping.
For a few dollars less: The quiet demise of the petrodollar agreement
The USD hegemony is unravelling, and the global financial order is moving towards a new era led by BRICS-plus countries. Hard commodities-based blockchain-enabled digital currencies will challenge the dollar's dominance and its power dynamics through transparency and inherent strength. How this will play out in gaining legitimacy and acceptance will determine our lives over the next decade.
Big plate of supply-side up: Why economies can’t redistribute their way to prosperity
The tried-and-tested approach to growing an economy, lifting per-capita incomes and alleviating poverty sustainably, is to focus on supply-side reforms to lift public and private investment. This approach has worked in many East Asian economies and India's historical context. By helping boost investment, supply-side reforms help accelerate productivity, job creation and income growth, reducing poverty effectively over the medium term.
Game's Bond, Electoral Bond: Two reforms that India's new government should undertake
All political funding should be routed transparently through electronic means, via UPI, IMPS, Neft or RTGS. Let parties crowdfund themselves. In a democracy, money should move from the people to their parties, not from politicians to voters.
What’s beyond Modi’s coalition government for investors?
The benchmark index reached a new high despite concerns of a probe by SEBI into alleged misleading statements by PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, as claimed by Rahul Gandhi.
View: GOI has the solution of India's economic puzzle but it needs to let go fiscal hesitations
India's economy is thriving with 8.2% GDP growth, strong public investment, and tax revenues. However, weak consumer demand and private capex remain issues. To boost growth, the government should create more public sector jobs, increasing incomes and consumption, funded by local savings.
Why should reforms now be a problem? Freebies, promised or delivered, didn’t work. Labour, trade, education & privatisation reforms await
Voters in the recent election have sent a clear message: they value responsible spending over freebies. At the national level, the NDA government, despite a reduced majority, was preferred over a challenger promising unattainable giveaways. Similarly, in Andhra Pradesh, the incumbent government, known for excessive freebies, faced a resounding defeat. The takeaway for future governments is to spend taxpayer money judiciously, prioritizing essential functions like infrastructure, education, health, and defence.
India has come a long way from fragile 5 days, time to race ahead
While India is integrating into global value chains (GVCs), the benefits via higher overall exports are not yet visible. We also need to create millions of jobs for youth joining the working-age population. There are also global uncertainties to navigate. Higher volatility, repeated supply shocks, higher geopolitical risks and climate change are the new normal. Against this backdrop, the agenda for the next five years requires prioritisation based on five key issues.
The show must go on: Push agriculture, make states fiscally responsible, avoid the middle income trap & stick to the PoA
The Indian electorate has defied predictions of certainty, but the economic agenda for India remains unchanged. Despite impressive economic progress since 1991, India remains a low-middle-income economy. Policy priorities include urban expansion, modernization of agriculture, tackling unemployment, and addressing state-level disparities. Additionally, India must prepare for challenges such as aging populations and technological advancements to sustain growth.
Sovereign ratings is for state; at the margins for markets
Sovereign ratings, a product of the pre-depression era when analysts were a rarity and communication was expensive, are turning into dinner-table conversations rather than driving investment decisions.
Investors must take Rajan’s promise, not Pitroda's threat
Investors are anxious about the potential impact of the ongoing general elections on economic policies. The possibility of the INDIA alliance, led by the Congress Party, coming to power has raised fears of a significant policy shift, particularly following suggestions of introducing an inheritance tax. However, it's important for investors to differentiate between exaggerated concerns and actual risks.
Not just a one-horse town: Empower Opposition to become active political participants
India aims to be a $5 tn economy. So, there's much talk about accelerating growth and enhancing economic competitiveness. But are we through talking about political competition?
View: Ignore India at your own peril
India's explosive growth in infrastructure, digitization, and human resources is evident in record-breaking achievements across all sectors. With a booming economy, soaring market capitalization, and increasing foreign investments, global agencies recognize India as the next growth driver, positioning it for significant economic influence.
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