View: China's insurers don't know their own risks

By Christopher Balding

In most countries, insurers are among the most staid and conservative companies in financial markets. In China, they're becoming some of the riskiest.

On the surface, China's insurers seem to be enjoying a golden age.Over the past two years, premium revenue has risen by 88 per cent and total assets by 49 per cent, while claims are up only 43 per cent. The industry now manages some $2.4 trillion in assets.

In a country with an aging population and high savings rate, it's a good business. The continual inflow of premium income along with predictable claims appeal to China's many aspiring investment moguls. It's no coincidence that the face of Warren Buffett - who of course made his fortune in insurance -adorns Cherry Coke cans in China.

Look beneath the surface, though, and dangers are lurking everywhere. In a business where risk management is fundamental, China's insurers lack the basic actuarial manpower and data tools necessary to make informed decisions.

A recent survey found that 47 per cent of Chinese insurance firms "haven't developed any methods at all" to conduct risk and solvency analysis. One regulator recently sought to reassure the public by declaring the industry “solvent“ - a term that doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Another problem is that China's modern insurance industry doesn't have much to do with insurance. Firms typically view it as a capital-raising exercise, not a way to protect companies and individuals against risk. They often offer high-yielding investment products that include a small insurance component.

Consumers view such products as multi-year investment vehicles that offer a higher rate of return than banks but are safer than the stock market. For executives bent on becoming the Chinese Buffett, insurance has become the go-to way of generating investment capital.

Such an environment is bound to lead to excesses. Take Anbang Insurance Group Co. At the end of 2016, its Chinese stock holdings had risen to 203 billion yuan, up from 27 billion yuan at the end of 2014. Anbang's domestic holdings grew so fast that it soon counted itself as a top-10 shareholder in each of the four major state banks.

One product Anbang offered was a type of high-yielding investment known universal insurance, which offers buyers a guaranteed redemption value upon maturity and included a death benefit to qualify as “insurance.“

Regulators have started to get wise to this kind of thing: Last month, they said one product Anbang wanted to offer “deviates from the fundamental origin of in surance“ and imposed a temporary sales ban on the company .“

Yet cracking down on insurers won't be easy . When Foresea Life Insurance Co. was barred from selling new products last month, the company threatened to block customer redemptions unless it was allowed to gear up again. It issued something close to a threat, urging regulators to avoid “inciting mass incidents by clients and localised and systemic risks.“

The message was pretty clear. As with tightening money markets, authorities can't clamp down too hard on insurers or they risk triggering collapses -and the resulting “mass incidents.“

Aspiring Chinese Buffetts must pay heed to the Oracle of Omaha's investment philosophy. Buffett is detail-oriented, and happy to walk away from deals he does not understand. One wonders if even he could comprehend what China's insurance companies are up to.